Leicester City are preparing for something they have never experienced before – a Champions League knock-out fixture. Next Wednesday the Foxes will lock horns with Europa League holders Sevilla in Spain, after they topped Group G in the competition last December.
It’s an astronomical achievement for the club and, although their Spanish opposition have won the last three Europa League titles and are sitting pretty in third in the La Liga at present, it’s certainly a more appealing tie than what they could’ve got.
As a result, the potential for Champions League glory seems to be the only thing separating Claudio Ranieri from a swarm of angry, pitchfork-bearing Leicester fans. The Foxes are in a dismal run of form as far as the league is concerned, having failed to register a single goal in the competition in 2017, losing five of their six games this calendar year.
The club are lingering just above the relegation spots in 17th, just two points above bottom-placed Sunderland, leaving question marks regarding the Italian manager’s future. It seems ludicrous to consider that a man who, just nine months ago did the unthinkable and led the club to their first ever Premier League title, is now being strongly tipped for the axe, with SkyBet giving odds of 7/4 for Ranieri to be the next manager out of the door.
The question remains; will he be the man at the helm come the end of this season or will a heavy first leg defeat to Sevilla in the UEFA Champions League spell the end for the Tinkerman?
The Case Against
As it’s probably the universal opinion, let’s firstly take a look at the argument of why Ranieri will be given until the end of this season at the very least. From a completely objective standpoint, one result, no matter how dire, should never decide a manager’s fate. If Leicester were to suffer an insurmountable first leg defeat then their Champions League dream would be over, but the battle against relegation would just be starting.
In fact, if Ranieri and co. were to essentially lose the tie in the first leg then they’d have greater incentive to put all their eggs in one basket and focus their attention purely on the Premier League; victory in such a game could lead the club to focus purely on Champions League glory and suffer a hard-hitting relegation as a result; defeat in the last sixteen of the Champions League will not, in comparison to relegation, damage the club’s future.
Former Fox, Mark Schwarzer spoke recently about rumours of Ranieri’s potential sacking and backed the board to do the right thing and stand by their man. “If you look at the history with the owners they’ve always been ones that have given the manager a lot of time,” the Australian declared to talkSPORT.
Also read: I'm leading a united dressing room, says Leicester's Ranieri
“Two years ago when Nigel Pearson was in charge there was a lot of talk, ‘was he sacked, was he not?’ They stuck with him, kept faith in him and he helped the team stay in the league. I can see the owners doing the same thing with Claudio Ranieri.”
One can argue the case either way but, looking at what Schwarzer had to say, there’s certainly evidence there to suggest that managers who’ve previously sought success with a team are more likely to help them beat the drop than a new gaffer because they know their side and they know how to motivate the players.
A massive case against the prediction that Ranieri will be sacked if the club are hit hard by Sevilla comes from the Italian himself. In an interview with The Times at the start of the month, the 65-year-old admitted that he is by no means immune to a sacking, but feels confident that the board will stick by him.
“I think this season the bookmakers made a mistake. It’s not my philosophy to think about this,” the Italian stated. “If my thoughts go there, I remember what was said by my chairman the first time I met him. He said, ‘If we go down will you stay with us?’ And I said, ‘Yes.’ Ranieri continued, “So now why do I have to think about this? I am thinking only to fight and to survive.”
Perhaps then the board WILL categorically repay the faith and loyalty shown by Ranieri, who led the club to its greatest achievement in football history last season, or is football more cynical than that?
The Case For
Leicester only have to look as far as their relegation rivals to see how much of an effect a new manager can have on a club’s pursuit of survival. Hull City appointed former-Olympiakos boss Marco Silva at the start of January and the Portuguese has already led the club to four victories, two of which have come in the league; the same number of triumphs they had mustered up in the entire first half of the EPL season before his arrival.
According to Hull City defender Andrew Robertson, the new manager has gone as far as banning days off in order to give the club their greatest chance of survival.
Silva helped Hull move off the bottom and up to 18th, just a point from safety. Similarly, Swansea City, who coincidentally beat Leicester 2-0 in the last round of Premier League fixtures, have picked up 12 points in their first six games under new manager Paul Clement, a form record bettered only by Everton.
This evidence could be enough for the board to suggest that sacking Ranieri and bringing a new face in would revitalise the squad. A heavy defeat to Sevilla would only prove that the club is in a rut and in need of change, because they were solid in the competition previously.
In some respects, Ranieri has been the architect of his own downfall. The Tinkerman was the one to show the world the ability and potential of the likes of Riyad Mahrez, Jamie Vardy, Danny Drinkwater and Wes Morgan, and last season, he set the bar very high indeed.
That now means that anything short of Champions League qualification is deemed a great failure, even though the club would ordinarily be tipped to finish in the lower bottom half if they had not exhibited such brilliance last season.
Any other manager (bar the un-nudgeable Arsene Wenger of course) would have already been sacked in the midst of such woeful form and so is it wrong to think that Ranieri should be immune from dismissal purely because of last season? Does the club’s survival not come first? Is it now a case of accepting that the club’s fate can be anything because they tasted such amazing success in the last campaign?
Looking at the bigger picture, it seems unlikely that Ranieri could lose his job due to a first leg thumping from Sevilla. If, however, they are booted out of the competition, heads could drop and the club’s form could remain in tatters. In such a case, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Ranieri sacked and a temporary manager brought in for the remaining ten-or-so games of the season.
