World Cup 2018: Trending from Russia

It is the end of round 2 of the group matches in this World Cup 2018 and we have already witnessed a major share of all kinds of emotions – ecstasy, turmoil, breathlessness and bitter disappointment. We've had a few upsets already. Big strategies, bigger names have been challenged on the field by lesser-known teams – and boy, the challenges have been handsome and fierce. However, certain trends of this World Cup are staring in our faces and it’s up to the teams to acknowledge the same and prepare to mitigate these risks.

Let’s focus on the top 5 trends that we have noticed so far:

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Possession is good, but that does not ensure victory

The big footballing nations – Argentina, Brazil, Germany, Spain – felt that simply controlling the ball will lead to victories. The stronger mid-fields with star names are playing an innumerable number of square passes, using the pivot of the 5th midfielder and switching sides as and when they want to. This is with the hope that this will lead to complete frustration of their opponents and then they can slowly move for the kill. This is a formula for success of major clubs in recent times: Manchester City won the English Premier League 2017-2018 season with a ball possession of 66.4%, Barcelona won the Spanish La Liga 2017-2018 season with 60% possession; Paris Saint Germain had 62.6% in French Ligue 1 in 2017-2018 and the list goes on.

However, many believe that having ball possession of around 70%, controlling the pace of the match, rotating the field through effective passing is all good, provided the team can finish the game with quality through passes, individual dribbling brilliance, effective crosses, etc. Otherwise, one may control the match, but that may not guarantee the victory.

If we look at the statistics of some the successful teams, we will find that possession was followed up with razor-sharp attacks. For example, in the English Premier League, Manchester City had average 17.5 shots per game out of which 7 shots per match on average were on target. Similarly, Barcelona had 15.3 shots per game out of which 7.2 shots on target per match. This is in addition to the ball possession they had in their respective tournaments

This philosophy is now put into life through the matches played so far. Let’s see some of the data to illustrate this: Germany enjoyed 60% of their possession against Mexico and yet lost the game. Argentina controlled their match against Iceland with 72% possession but could salvage just one point. Even Saudi Arabia in the opening fixture against Russia had 60% possession but went home disappointed by losing by 5 goals. Perhaps only Spain (against Iran) and Belgium (against Panama) won their matches with 60%+ possession.

Where's the pace and the individual brilliance?

This leads to the second point that comes to my mind. Why is it that a team full of stars failing to win after controlling the match? Some people will say that the weaker teams are defending with 9-10 players and so it’s difficult for the others to score goals. Very true – but are we not expecting this to happen? Did we not see this happening in other World Cups as well?

What is actually lacking from the stronger teams is the ability to pass and break the defense at a lightning speed when they are in the final third. They are going into the attack at quite a slow pace and then are lacking creativity once they have reached the penalty box. If a team is unable to break the defense of the opponents through the middle, then they should either go for extensive wing play with tall strikers in the middle or should try false dummy runs off the ball to try and create space. So far, we did not see that from the teams like Argentina, etc.

A classic example of how speedy counter-attacks can bring success in football is to study the performance of Iceland in the World Cup qualifiers. They topped the UEFA Group I which had a total of 6 teams consisting of Croatia, Ukraine, Turkey, Finland, Kosovo and of course, Iceland. In the 10 matches played, Iceland won 7 and lost just 2 matches. They topped the group ahead of teams like Croatia and Finland. However, if you analyze the data, you will find that they had an average of just 44% ball possession per match and yet scored 16 goals. This was possible only because while they defend most of the time to frustrate the opponents, they also rely on fast and quick counter attacks to catch their opponents off-guard and then score the goals they need. Unfortunately, we have not seen this kind of quick counter-attacking football from the so-called big footballing nations yet!

Also, apart from a few isolated incidents in dead ball situations, did we really see brilliance from the superstars in this World Cup? This leads to doubts on whether these big super-stars are only good in club football and not in World Cup matches? We are all hoping that at least in the knockout rounds, these players will rise to the occasion and mark their individual superiority on the outcome of the match.

Counter attacks with great pace are vital for success

The importance of speed during counter attacks is more than ever, especially when the opponents narrow the space while defending. Fundamental stuff; but we have not seen that in action from the bigger teams. On the contrary, you can find this strategy being adopted effectively by teams like Nigeria (against Iceland) or even Iceland (against Argentina), etc.

Is it that the big superstars donning the shirts of bigger nations are so tired from the club engagements that they have lost the pace here in the World Cup? Or is it that they have failed to do so because of following the strategy of “first control the game and then try to attack”? I don’t know the answers to the questions. though we all are sure that the coaches and team analysts are thinking of these, hopefully!

VAR is watching you!

VAR is in place for a major tournament for the first time. Frankly speaking, I find itself confusing in many aspects - VAR’s scope of decision making, when and how VAR gets triggered, how spectators are knowing that VAR team is getting invoked by the central team, etc. There are several theories on how effectively VAR should be used going forward, but that’s a separate topic for another day.

What is important to note is that VAR is in play and the rough defenders should be careful on their actions, especially inside the penalty box. Very often, in earlier tournaments, the defenders get away with some elbowing and pushing during a dead ball situation. This time they are likely to get caught through VAR and it might lead to not only a red card situation but also a penalty at a very critical juncture. One mistake, one penalty – that might be enough to kick you out from the world cup

Let the comedy of errors come to an end!

Finally, the number of own goals and howlers happening in this World Cup is astonishing. The maximum number of own goals till date happened in 1998 World Cup with a number of 6 out of a total 171 goals. So far, we have already seen 5 own goals and that too when round 3 of the group stages is still ongoing! Now let’s add to that the howlers that have happened so far, starting from one of the best goalkeepers of today – David de Gea of Spain vs Portugal. Probably the costliest howler so far has been conceded by Willy Caballero of Argentina against Croatia as that became the turning point of the match which Argentina would love to forget soon.

Are these cases just simply coincidences that are likely to taper out as we go towards the knockouts? Or are these cases of players having tremendous low confidence and unable to cope up with the pressure of the situations? Or is it that these are cases of players and teams becoming too over-confident resulting in costly and high impact mistakes? Again, questions unanswered till now – but apart from a comic factor and entertainment value, these categories of goals are not wanted in any tournament, especially in a FIFA World Cup!