3 reasons why Khamzat Chimaev can beat Kamaru Usman - and 2 reasons why he can't

After his big win over Li Jingliang at UFC 267 this past weekend, Khamzat Chimaev already has fans talking about a fight between him and current UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman in 2022.

If the UFC were to book a fight between Kamaru Usman and Khamzat Chimaev, would ‘Borz’ actually stand a chance against the reigning welterweight champion?

Despite Usman’s tremendous record in the UFC, it’s a fight that could easily go either way for a number of different reasons.

With that in mind, here are three reasons why Khamzat Chimaev can beat Kamaru Usman – and two reasons why he can’t.

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#3: Khamzat Chimaev might be able to overpower Kamaru Usman

Khamzat Chimaev overpowered Li Jingliang, but could he do the same to Kamaru Usman?

The biggest hallmark of Kamaru Usman’s incredible run through the UFC’s welterweight division has been his ability to overpower basically every opponent he’s faced.

From hulking foes like Emil Meek and Tyron Woodley, to trickier, more technical opponents like Jorge Masvidal and Rafael dos Anjos, nobody has really been able to stop ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ from radgolling them inside the octagon.

In turn, despite the wrestling ability of the likes of Woodley and Colby Covington, nobody has been able to take Usman down, despite him essentially competing in a total of 48 rounds. Simply put, it’s an insane record by anyone’s standards.

However, Khamzat Chimaev appears to have the same kind of freakish strength that Usman possesses. Outside of Gerald Meerschaert – who was starched with a punch in the opening seconds – ‘Borz’ has thrown around all of his opponents in the UFC like they were nothing.

Most notably, Khamzat Chimaev picked up his latest opponent, Li Jingliang, and walked him towards UFC president Dana White before dumping him on the mat.

This was a terrifying show of power, particularly when you consider that Jingliang has a strong reputation of his own as a grappler, complete with his nickname of ‘The Leech’.

So could Khamzat Chimaev really overpower Kamaru Usman? Stranger things have happened. And if ‘Borz’ is able to put Usman on his back, then quite how ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ would respond would be a major question mark – particularly when you consider the strength of Chimaev’s top game.

Essentially, it seems like if any fighter could achieve this herculean task, it’d be Khamzat Chimaev. If he manages to find a way to overpower and ground Usman, he could win a fight against him.

#2: Khamzat Chimaev is currently riding a wave of confidence that could be hard to stop

Khamzat Chimaev's aura of invincibility may be difficult for any fighter to break

Momentum is arguably one of the most important keys to success inside the UFC. Right now, no fighter has as much momentum as Khamzat Chimaev.

Prior to UFC 267, it was easy for observers and fellow fighters alike to write Khamzat Chimaev off as nothing but hype. After all, while he’d won three fights in quick succession in 2020, his opponents weren’t the strongest. Since then, he’d been on the shelf battling COVID-19.

After his whitewashing of Li Jingliang, though, it’s hard to dispute the idea that he’s a very real contender for the UFC welterweight title. Jingliang had been beaten in the UFC before, but never quite like that. It was a truly eye-opening performance.

More to the point, the wave of momentum that Chimaev is now riding will only add to the massive aura of invincibility that he already gives off.

‘Borz’ clearly believes that he’s the greatest fighter on the planet and that it’s his destiny to smash anyone in front of him. Right now, nobody’s proven him otherwise.

Could it be argued that if he were to fight Kamaru Usman for the UFC welterweight title, his confidence could work against him? Perhaps. However, there’s an equal chance that it could work in his favour, too.

Facing a fighter with this much momentum would be a difficult task for any UFC fighter, even one as battle-hardened as Usman. Jose Aldo, for instance, was seen as an all-time great when he wilted in the face of Conor McGregor’s speeding train of momentum.

Essentially, until someone actually tests him, Khamzat Chimaev will continue to believe that he’s unstoppable. Even for someone like Usman, that kind of confidence could be difficult to break.

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#1: At the age of 34, Kamaru Usman is getting no younger

At the age of 34, could Kamaru Usman's prime almost be at an end?

Kamaru Usman is undoubtedly one of the greatest welterweights in UFC history. However, while his title reign still feels like it is in its infancy, he’s actually been around the promotion for a surprisingly long time – six years to be exact.

More to the point, ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ is already 34 years old, and he turns 35 next May. That doesn’t make him an old man by anyone’s standards, but it also wouldn’t be unfair to suggest that his athletic prime may be coming to an end in the near future.

In comparison, for instance, Georges St-Pierre – the fighter Usman is looking to surpass as the UFC’s welterweight GOAT – had already hung up his gloves at the age of 34, having made nine successful defenses of the UFC welterweight title.

Matt Hughes, meanwhile, was just 33 years old when St-Pierre dismantled him and took his title away – making him look like a fossil in the process.

So what does this mean for Usman? It means that his spot at the top of the ladder could be under threat.

Right now, Khamzat Chimaev could easily be seen as the young lion of the welterweight division. At 27, ‘Borz’ is just about reaching his prime years. While he’s already 10-0, he’s been in far fewer tough fights than Usman has.

So while ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ looks nearly impossible to stop at the current time, the truth is that at his age, the wheels could fall off at any time.

It’s easy to forget, but a high-level athlete like Usman has probably picked up a multitude of niggling injuries over the years. In his mid-30’s, they may be beginning to add up.

In a potential fight between Usman and Khamzat Chimaev, then, it’s possible to envision a scenario that would see the young lion overpower his more experienced opponent, as we’ve seen so many times before in the UFC.

#2: Khamzat Chimaev is unproven at the highest level

Khamzat Chimaev's opponents in the UFC have not been real world beaters

The biggest reason for believing that Kamaru Usman would turn back the challenge of Khamzat Chimaev is simply that ‘Borz’ has not been tested at the highest level yet.

Sure, his four UFC wins have been incredibly impressive, particularly when you consider that he hasn’t even taken a single significant strike in those fights.

However, with respect, none of his opponents were truly elite-level fighters. John Phillips and Rhys McKee hold a cumulative UFC record of 1-7, and are probably among the lowest-level welterweights to compete in the octagon in recent years.

Gerald Meerschaert was undoubtedly a step up for Chimaev, but ‘GM3’ has never been ranked in the UFC’s top 15 at middleweight. He was also coming off a knockout loss to Ian Heinisch when he fought ‘Borz’ last year.

Li Jingliang was, of course, a ranked fighter. But even he was only the #11 welterweight in the UFC, and has losses to both Jake Matthews and Neil Magny on his record.

Essentially, it’s hard to proclaim that Khamzat Chimaev could beat Kamaru Usman when he has yet to face an opponent ranked in the top ten – a name like Vicente Luque, Stephen Thompson or Gilbert Burns.

Could Chimaev defeat fighters like that? It’s possible, but right now there’s just not enough evidence to suggest he’s the man to dethrone Kamaru Usman.

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#1: Kamaru Usman may be the best welterweight in UFC history

It could be argued that Kamaru Usman is the UFC's greatest-ever welterweight

For as good as Khamzat Chimaev has shown himself to be thus far into his UFC career, it’s worth remembering quite how brilliant Kamaru Usman is.

‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ is not just a regular UFC champion. There’s an argument to suggest that he may well be the greatest welterweight in UFC history, if not in terms of his accomplishments yet, then on talent alone.

Usman has been on the UFC’s roster since 2015. In the years that have followed his debut, he’s defeated a total of 14 opponents without tasting defeat – setting a UFC record in the process.

More to the point, ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ has barely even been tested in that time. He’s never been taken down, rarely eats heavy strikes, and has only been knocked down by two opponents – Hayder Hassan and Gilbert Burns, who were both finished off later in the fight.

Even the great Georges St-Pierre didn’t quite give off the same aura of invincibility as Usman. While that may be down to the fact that GSP faced tougher opponents is up for debate, but regardless, defeating ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ is a massive task for anyone.

That includes Khamzat Chimaev. While ‘Borz’ may well prove to be a generational talent, if he does end up facing Usman in the near future, he’ll be faced with an opponent not only equally talented but also one who has had more time to develop his skills.

Essentially, to expect anyone – even Khamzat Chimaev – to dethrone Kamaru Usman right now just isn’t a smart idea.