5 reasons why Conor McGregor will beat Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 229

It’s all set to be the biggest fight in UFC history. We’re just weeks away now from UFC 229 in Las Vegas, where UFC Lightweight champ Khabib Nurmagomedov will defend against former champion Conor McGregor – who never lost the belt inside the cage.

Not only is it a huge fight, but it’s also a tricky one to call due to the massive success of both men inside the Octagon. But who will win? Despite Nurmagomedov’s undefeated record, more recent fights and incredible wrestling game, McGregor still has quite a lot of advantages.

Here are 5 reasons why Conor McGregor will defeat Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 229.

---

#1: Conor has a long reach and knows exactly how to use it

McGregor used his long reach to stunning effect against Eddie Alvarez

One of the biggest reasons for Conor McGregor’s huge success inside the Octagon is his long reach – 74”, almost the same as recent Welterweight title challenger Darren Till – and the fact that he knows exactly how to use it. Of his victims at Featherweight and Lightweight, it’s telling that all of them, barring 2, were shorter men with a shorter reach.

The two exceptions? Max Holloway, who was taller than Conor but still had a 2” reach disadvantage, and Nate Diaz – 3” taller and with a 3” reach advantage – who beat McGregor and came very close to repeating the feat in a rematch.

The way that McGregor uses his long frame is quite brilliant – if a shorter opponent wants to bull their way forward, as Eddie Alvarez and Jose Aldo did, he’s got the reach and the timing to catch them with massively powerful punches.

And if they look for takedowns – as Chad Mendes did – then Conor uses his kicking game – usually flashy wheel kicks or front kicks to the body, designed to keep distance – to keep them at bay.

Nurmagomedov stands at a reported 5’10” – an inch taller than the Irishman – but with a 70” reach, he’s at quite a disadvantage. And with a straight-ahead style, it’s easy to see him either walking forward directly into a bomb he can’t quite counter, or being unable to set up his takedowns properly due to McGregor’s length and kicking game.

#2: McGregor’s chin is proven to be granite

McGregor survived an onslaught on the ground to destroy Chad Mendes

A lot of observers who are picking Khabib to win this fight are basing their pick on McGregor’s 2015 fight with Chad Mendes – a wrestler who essentially represents a smaller version of Nurmagomedov. Mendes took the fight with McGregor on relatively late notice, but was still able to secure takedowns and cut the Irishman with elbows on the ground before he ran out of steam and succumbed to a second round TKO.

The fight did show that McGregor’s takedown defense isn’t impregnable, and Khabib is probably a better takedown artist than Mendes, too. But can he really do that much damage on the ground? I’d actually suggest the answer is no. Firstly, Nurmagomedov is not the kind of fighter to purely look for submissions on the ground like Nate Diaz. He’s only submitted two men inside the Octagon in fact.

That means he’s going to look to ground-and-pound Conor, and judging on McGregor’s previous fights, it’s going to be very difficult to finish him off in that way. McGregor took a lot of cosmetic damage and was cut by Mendes, but he never looked hurt and when he got up, he was clearly the fresher man. Questions have been asked about Conor’s cardio, but when he was on the ground against Mendes, he certainly didn’t appear to tire out.

Essentially, Conor’s chin appears to be made of granite – he’s taken big shots from other fighters before and shrugged them off too – and it’s going to be difficult for Khabib to put him away with ground-and-pound. And if he can’t do that, then every round starts on the feet – where he’s in massive danger from the Irishman’s striking.

#3: Khabib has proven to be hittable before

Against Michael Johnson, Nurmagomedov proved to be hittable

Okay, so everyone knows that at 26-0 and with 10 UFC wins under his belt, Khabib has a gaudy undefeated record. But does that mean he’s completely unbeatable? Well, not really. Even in fights where he ended up winning handily, ‘The Eagle’ has shown some weaknesses. Namely, he has a penchant for wading forward while firing punches, and against quicker opponents, that’s gotten him hit before.

Even as far back as 2012, his straightforward, aggressive style almost cost him a fight with Gleison Tibau – who slipped Nurmagomedov’s punches for the most part and blocked a lot of takedowns – but the Brazilian simply couldn’t put together enough offense himself to justify a win. And against Michael Johnson in 2016, Khabib simply bulled forward and was tagged over and over in the first round before securing a takedown and eventually wearing Johnson out.

Khabib has always gotten away with his style due to two factors – opponents like Tibau and Rafael dos Anjos simply weren’t quick enough to counter him as he rushed forward, while Johnson, who did tag him, didn’t have the power to truly hurt the Dagestani.

McGregor on the other hand not only has the speed and timing to catch Nurmagomedov coming forward, but he’s also got the kind of fight-changing power that few other fighters possess, particularly at 155lbs. If Khabib comes into this fight with the same straightforward, aggressive style, then the likelihood is that he’ll walk into a huge counter from ‘The Notorious One’ – and pay the consequences.

#4: Khabib might come in too emotionally charged

Khabib and Conor were friendly here - but is Khabib now too emotionally charged?

Unless you’ve had your head buried under a rock for the last year, you probably know how this fight was put together – but let’s look at it again anyway.

Back in April, Khabib was booked to fight Tony Ferguson at UFC 223 for the UFC Lightweight title, which had been stripped from McGregor due to his long absence. But in the build to that event, Nurmagomedov confronted McGregor’s teammate Artem Lobov and threatened him after he’d claimed Conor was still the “real” champion.

And so McGregor decided to bring a crew with him to Brooklyn, where the event was taking place, and launched an attack on a bus containing Khabib and some other UFC fighters – including throwing a metal dolly through the window. After the incident Khabib didn’t seem shaken, simply stating that McGregor should “name the location” and then they’d fight.

Well, now the fight is on – but who has the emotional upper hand? If Conor was at all shaken by Nurmagomedov threatening his friend and teammate, he dealt with that with the attack on the bus. Suddenly, it’s now Khabib who is the angry one gunning for revenge. And that’s a dangerous place to be in terms of a fight like this.

It’s been proven time after time that fighters who come into the Octagon too emotionally charged often get themselves into trouble. Look at Jose Aldo, who came in fired up against McGregor, charged forward uncharacteristically and was then knocked out.

Or Donald Cerrone, who worked himself up for a fight with Nate Diaz to the point where he was thoroughly ineffective and was easily beaten.

Khabib would do well to put all of the events leading up to the fight into the back of his mind and forget about Conor’s head games. But if he can’t do that – and the pre-fight hype suggests he may not be able to – then he might be playing into McGregor’s hands.

#5: Conor’s sense of occasion is unmatched

McGregor somehow always seems to rise to the occasion

Ever since the fight between Nurmagomedov and McGregor was signed, it’s been pushed by everyone – from Dana White himself down to practically the entire UFC fanbase – that this is going to be the biggest fight in UFC history.

For McGregor, that probably doesn’t mean a lot. You could argue in fact that his fights with Jose Aldo and Eddie Alvarez were at the time “the biggest fight in UFC history” too.

For Nurmagomedov though, it’s uncharted territory. He only fought in his first UFC main event this April – against a late replacement in Al Iaquinta – and of his 10 UFC victories, 5 of them have actually taken place on the prelim card of the show they were booked on. He simply hasn’t had the kind of experiences under the biggest spotlight that McGregor has over the last few years.

And nobody rises to an occasion quite like ‘The Notorious One’. A massive amount of hype – including live entrance music – didn’t deter him from destroying Chad Mendes. When faced with Jose Aldo, who hadn’t lost in a decade, he came in as confidently as ever and knocked him out in seconds.

The UFC’s first event in New York was no issue for him, and even against Floyd Mayweather, he gave a solid account of himself where people expected nothing.

Against Nurmagomedov then, in the so-called biggest fight in history? Conor is under pressure, sure, but pressure is nothing to him – he’s proven that time after time. For Khabib though, this is a bigger moment than anything he’s ever faced before. So will he rise to the occasion? Or will he crumble under the pressure? Either is equally likely.