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2024 is now upon us, and while fans will have to wait a week or so for the first UFC show of the year, there’s plenty to look forward to.
One big question, of course, is who might become a UFC champion for the first time in 2024?
Naturally, there are a number of prime candidates for this, particularly as a handful of title fights have already been announced.
With this in mind, here are five UFC fighters who could become first-time champions in 2024.
#5. Dricus du Plessis – UFC middleweight contender
The first pay-per-view headliner of 2024 will see the UFC middleweight title on the line, and based on a number of factors, there’s every chance that we’ll see a new champion crowned.
The bout in question will see current titleholder Sean Strickland face off with top contender Dricus du Plessis, which is an interesting dynamic in itself.
This is because du Plessis essentially earned a shot at the title last summer by stopping former champ Robert Whittaker and only missed his opportunity to fight then-kingpin Israel Adesanya due to an injury.
Strickland stepped in to replace him, and of course, the rest is history. ‘Tarzan’ shocked the world by producing one of the UFC’s greatest-ever upsets, outpointing ‘The Last Stylebender’ to take his title.
Strickland undoubtedly produced some magic in that fight, but can he pull the same trick off against ‘Stillknocks’? It’s hard to say.
On paper, at least, the South African is the better finisher, appears to hit harder, and clearly got under the skin of ‘Tarzan’ with some personal insults last month.
With all of this considered, it’s arguable that du Plessis ought to be favored to win in this fight, and if he does, he’ll become 2024’s first new champion – and may well set up that money fight with Adesanya in the process.
#4. Erin Blanchfield – UFC flyweight contender
2023 saw a new champion crowned in the women’s flyweight division for the first time since 2018. Alexa Grasso produced an all-time great upset to unseat longtime queen Valentina Shevchenko and then managed to hold onto her crown in a rematch, too.
Grasso has undoubtedly come a long way in the last few years, but will she be able to hold onto her title until the end of 2024? It’s highly debatable.
Right now, we don’t know exactly who her next challenger may be, but assuming the UFC doesn’t go with a third fight with ‘The Bullet’, the most likely contender will be Erin Blanchfield.
‘Cold Blooded’ is still unbeaten in the octagon, having reeled off six straight wins since debuting there in 2021, and she’s dispatched two former title challengers in Jessica Andrade and Taila Santos.
Her next bout will see her face off with another fighter on a lengthy win streak – French kickboxer Manon Fiorot – and it’s safe to say that the winner will have earned a title shot.
Either woman could be a threat to Grasso, but Blanchfield’s relentless pace and brutally heavy ground game would make her particularly dangerous.
The Mexican champion clearly has the guts and skills to take out anyone in the division, but whether she could withstand the kind of assault that ‘Cold Blooded’ brings is another thing.
Therefore, if Blanchfield can get past Fiorot, it isn’t a stretch to guess that she could be one of 2024’s first-time titleholders.
#3. Shavkat Rakhmonov – UFC welterweight contender
After a lot of discussion, it looks like the next UFC welterweight title bout is set. According to reporter Ariel Helwani, the current plan is to pit champion Leon Edwards against top contender Belal Muhammad at UFC 300.
However, Helwani has also mentioned that unbeaten phenom Shavkat Rakhmonov could also be in the mix for a title shot.
While ‘The Nomad’ may have to wait out for ‘Rocky’ to face ‘Remember the Name’, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see him end the year holding the title as one of 2024’s first-time champions.
The native of Kazakhstan is still perfect in MMA, boasting an 18-0 record. Six of those wins have come in the UFC, and what’s more, ‘The Nomad’ has yet to see any of his fights go the distance.
It isn’t like Rakhmonov has been fighting scrubs, either. He holds wins over ranked fighters Neil Magny and Geoff Neal, and most recently, he took out former title challenger Stephen Thompson.
Both Edwards and Muhammad are obviously fantastic fighters in their own right, but neither man appears to possess the incredible killer instinct of Rakhmonov. To add to this, ‘The Nomad’ does not appear to have any weaknesses, being equally deadly on the feet and on the ground.
It’s fair to question his cardio, given he has yet to go 15 minutes in the octagon, let alone 25. However, the fact that he finished Neal late in the third round of their clash bodes well for him in that area.
Therefore, it doesn’t feel like a stretch to suggest that whoever wins in the Edwards vs. Muhammad fight doesn’t really matter – they’re simply holding onto the title until Rakhmonov claims it as his own.
#2. Merab Dvalishvili – UFC bantamweight contender
It’s fair to say that the first bantamweight title fight booked for 2024 has at least some controversy hanging over it. Champion Sean O’Malley, who downed Aljamain Sterling to win the title back in August, is set to defend against Marlon Vera.
Sure, there’s a lot of narrative around the bout – Vera was responsible for O’Malley’s first defeat in the octagon back in 2020 – but the fact is that ‘Chito’ is ranked at No.6 in the division.
Realistically, the fighter who ought to be facing ‘Sugar’ in March is Merab Dvalishvili. ‘The Machine’ is ranked at No.2 and is riding a lengthy nine-fight win streak. He also holds wins over Jose Aldo and Petr Yan.
Why is the native of Georgia not fighting for the title? Essentially, it feels like he’s been overlooked due to his sometimes grinding style, as well as his refusal to fight his teammate Sterling, something that has always irked the UFC.
However, Dvalishvili will have his time to shine when he fights former titleholder Henry Cejudo in February. Not only is ‘Triple C’ one of the division’s biggest stars, but thanks to his Olympic wrestling background, theoretically, at least, he could be a tough test for the Georgian.
If ‘The Machine’ can defeat Cejudo, then it’d be hard to deny him his shot and to be quite frank, it’s hard to imagine either O’Malley or Vera being able to stop his takedown.
With that considered, it seems hard to imagine Dvalishvili not claiming bantamweight gold this year, making him a likely candidate as a first-time titleholder.
#1. Ilia Topuria – UFC featherweight contender
The UFC’s next featherweight title fight is set to take place in February when Alexander Volkanovski defends his crown against top contender Ilia Topuria.
The fact that ‘El Matador’ has already cemented a title shot would be good enough to land him a spot on this list. However, there is more evidence to suggest that the Spanish fighter will become a first-time champion in 2024.
Firstly, he’s a truly fantastic fighter, having put together an unbeaten 14-0 record in MMA, including UFC wins over Josh Emmett and Bryce Mitchell.
A wildly heavy hitter, Topuria is also a powerful wrestler with excellent submission skills, and he’s also tough as hell.
Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, it might be fair to question where Volkanovski’s head is at right now.
‘Alexander the Great’ is one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world, and he’s arguably the best featherweight in octagon history. However, he’s also coming off the first KO loss of his UFC career, and he’s also 35 years old.
Stats show that aging fighters don’t have much success in title fights inside the octagon, and it’s easy to envision a scenario where the Australian is on his way down as Topuria is on his way up.
Therefore, while it’d still be a major upset, it’s definitely fair to suggest that ‘El Matador’ is in a good position to become a first-time champion.
