Bellator 215: Mitrione vs. Kharitonov - Predictions and Picks

In a curious move considering the criticism the UFC often garnered for the same booking, Bellator MMA has two shows this weekend; Bellator 215 from Uncasville, Connecticut on Friday night and then Bellator 216 from the same venue on Sunday night.

Broadcasting live on the Paramount Network and on the DAZN streaming service in the US, Bellator 215 is clearly the lesser of the two cards, with a Heavyweight main event of Matt Mitrione vs. Sergei Kharitonov, and little else in terms of name value on offer.

Here are the predicted outcomes for Bellator 215: Mitrione vs. Kharitonov.

#1 Matt Mitrione vs. Sergei Kharitonov

Matt Mitrione's athletic gifts have served him well in his MMA career

It’s quite telling of the Heavyweight division when Sergei Kharitonov – a man who most observers regarded as past his prime in about 2008 – is still competing near the top of the world’s second-biggest MMA promotion. Once considered one of the very best big men on the planet, Kharitonov now occupies the same kind of niche in Bellator that Alistair Overeem does in the UFC – still dangerous, still relevant, but less durable than he was in his prime.

That prime, of course, came back in the PRIDE days, where Kharitonov defeated the likes of Semmy Schilt, Fabricio Werdum and Pedro Rizzo. Since then he’s been on a tour de force of promotions outside the UFC, having plied his trade in DREAM, K-1 – even moonlighting as a kickboxer at one point – StrikeForce, M-1 Global and now finally, Bellator.

In all honesty, his career looked all but over when he debuted in Bellator with a disappointing KO loss to Javy Ayala in 2016, but since then he’s put together a very solid run – 5 wins and a No Contest – and even knocked out Roy Nelson in his most recent fight.

Kharitonov remains largely the same fighter he always was, albeit slower and with a much weaker chin. He’s still a very excellent MMA boxer, able to chain together combinations and work the body as often as he aims for the head. His kicking game is somewhat of a lesser weapon, but he’s got dangerous knees from the clinch and a somewhat underrated grappling game, surprising considering he doesn’t come from a sambo background like a lot of other Russian fighters.

Matt Mitrione meanwhile made the switch to Bellator in 2016 after fighting his entire career with the UFC coming off his stint on TUF 10 in 2009. His MMA success is based almost purely on his explosive athleticism – at 6’3” and 255lbs, ‘Meathead’ is a former NFL player and he’s shockingly quick for such a large man.

That quickness has translated well in terms of his striking, as he flings combinations and kicks out with ease where a Heavyweight with lesser athletic gifts would struggle. Against fighters who’ve been willing to engage him from the outside, Mitrione’s always been highly successful. That’s why, of his 13 wins, 11 of them have come by KO or TKO.

Mitrione’s problem has always been his grappling skills. As he came into MMA at a relatively late stage – he debuted in the UFC at the age of 31 – he’s simply not had the time to properly round out his skills, and so every time he’s been on the ground, he’s looked like a fish out of water. His submission loss to Ben Rothwell in 2015 was a massive example of this, as was his inept performance against Ryan Bader last year.

Thankfully for him though, Kharitonov has never been one to shoot for takedowns, and even if he does, I don’t think he’s a good enough wrestler to really take Mitrione down. For however bad ‘Meathead’ is on the ground, it’s pretty tricky to actually get him there.

That means we’re likely in for a striking battle and in that case, I’m favouring Mitrione. In his prime, Sergei likely would’ve been able to use his more skilled boxing game to find Mitrione’s chin, but I think this slower, less durable version of the Russian simply won’t be quick enough to catch the former NFL man cleanly. And Mitrione if nothing else hits like a ton of bricks.

The Pick: Mitrione via first round KO

#2 Logan Storley vs. Ion Pascu

Logan Storley's stellar wrestling makes him one of the best prospects in the world at 170lbs

The fact that this Welterweight tilt is acting as the co-main event here tells you a lot I think, most notably that – no offense meant to these fighters - Bellator simply don’t have the roster depth to be putting on back-to-back shows like this. Essentially, it should act as a total showcase for Logan Storley, who is one of the best prospects in the world at 170lbs. But at 9-0, he should probably be faced with a tougher test than journeyman Ion Pascu.

The hype around Storley stems from his insane wrestling background – he’s a four-time NCAA Division I wrestler out of the University of Minnesota, fascinatingly, the same school attended by Brock Lesnar, who grew up in the same town as Storley, Webster, South Dakota. And naturally, he’s transitioned into MMA pretty flawlessly, chaining his takedowns together to set up punishing ground-and-pound and also showing a heavy-handed boxing game.

Pascu meanwhile is a longtime veteran who fights out of Conor McGregor’s SBG Ireland camp, although he originally hails from Romania. He’s been fighting since 2008, and has appeared in Bellator twice before – and unsurprisingly, those two appearances are amongst his 9 career losses.

The interesting thing? We’ve essentially seen this fight before, as Pascu faced a very similar fighter to Storley in Ed Ruth last April. That fight saw Pascu back up continually, seemingly in awe of Ruth’s wrestling prowess, and that allowed Ruth to use his striking to tee off on the Romanian as well as take him down, en route to a clear-cut unanimous decision.

Judging on what I’ve seen of him, Pascu is clearly a tough guy and a solid striker, but he’s also not the best athlete, doesn’t move that quickly and has essentially lost to the best fighters he’s faced – outside of current UFC fighter Jack Marshman, who he knocked out in 2013. But then Marshman is a similarly plodding striker for the most part.

I just don’t see this fight going any differently to how Pascu’s fight with Ruth went, although if Storley were to finish the Romanian then it’d send quite a message, as he’s only ever been finished once – a rear naked choke back in 2011 – and neither Ruth, Jack Hermansson nor Lorenz Larkin could do it. I’m going with Storley by decision, but a TKO wouldn’t be a stunner as ‘Storm’ is incredibly aggressive from the top position.

The Pick: Storley via unanimous decision

#3 Eduardo Dantas vs. Toby Misech

Despite some recent losses, Eduardo Dantas is still highly dangerous

Just a handful of years ago, many observers were talking about Eduardo Dantas being the best Bantamweight in the world outside of the UFC and dreamed of a fight between him and the likes of Dominick Cruz, Urijah Faber and his fellow Nova Uniao product Renan Barao.

The bloom was knocked off that rose when he was surprisingly KO’d by the unheralded Tyson Nam in 2012, but he’s still been one of the more consistent Bantamweights on Bellator’s roster, only losing 3 times - with one of those losses, to Joe Warren, later being avenged.

‘Dudu’ is coming off two straight losses, but one was to Darrion Caldwell, who’s an excellent fighter in his own right, and the other was to Michael McDonald – a knockout loss in 58 seconds that also resulted in a broken fibula, and to be fair, McDonald has always carried dangerous knockout power. Personally, I think these losses make him any less dangerous – he’s still a very vicious striker who also has top-shelf grappling, and the only time he truly struggles is against top wrestlers.

I personally doubt Hawaii’s Toby Misech will have a lot for the Brazilian. A BJJ blue belt fighting out of BJ Penn’s Nova Uniao branch – an interesting link to Dantas’ own camp – Misech is 10-5 and this fight will be his second in Bellator after he destroyed the overmatched Edward Thommes with strikes in December.

Prior to that though, he lost his fight against Ricky Palacios on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series. It’s easy to see why Dana was interested in him – he’s got insanely quick hands and he throws heavy leather – but it’s also easy to see why things didn’t quite work out for him.

Essentially, while he’s incredible on offense, he’s also aggressive to the point of recklessness, and his defense is somewhat lacking – as we saw against Palacios, who was able to counter and corral him to the point where he appeared to be completely out of steam by the third round.

This fight should be a lot of fun as Misech will undoubtedly come out swinging for the fence. Unless he catches Dantas in a rush, however, he’s likely to eat something nasty from the more technically sound Brazilian. It’s not an impossible fight for the Hawaiian as Dantas has been knocked out before, but I can’t see it myself.

The Pick: Dantas via second round submission

#4 Mike Kimbel vs. John Douma

This one is another Bantamweight fight, and it features two pretty inexperienced fighters in Kimbel and Douma. John Douma is making his Bellator debut at 3-1, but even with only 4 professional fights under his belt he’s got miles more experience than Mike Kimbel.

Kimbel – one of the numerous regional fighters signed by Bellator for their prelims – made good on his promotional debut back in February 2018 by finishing opponent Geoffrey Then in violent fashion, knocking him down with a right hand before slamming him onto his head to escape an armbar.

That was enough for Bellator to bring him back, and in his second fight, he starched Alex Potts in just 6 seconds, instantly going viral in the process. Judging by the amount of push that the promotion have given Kimbel, it’s pretty clear to see which horse they’re backing in this fight.

Quite how it’ll go, well, who knows? It’s a bit hard to quantify a fighter whose entire pro career has lasted 1:09, after all! Judging by Douma’s footage it appears that he’s a pretty aggressive striker too, so we should at least be in for a bit of a brawl before one of them gets knocked down and probably out. I’m guessing Kimbel will win as surely Bellator would want to match him well, but it’s a crapshoot really.

The Pick: Kimbel via first round knockout

#5 Brandon Girtz vs. Pedro Carvalho

Veteran Brandon Girtz has an excellent wrestling game

Another member of the SBG Ireland team, Portugal’s Carvalho is coming into this fight at 2-0 in Bellator, and to be honest he’s looked pretty good thus far. A back-and-forth win over Daniel Crawford opened his promotional tenure and he followed that with a quick guillotine choke of Luca Vitali in December, in a fight that lasted just 43 seconds.

Surprisingly for an SBG fighter, Carvalho’s just as comfortable using his grappling as he is standing and striking – which makes sense in a way given he’s apparently only been with SBG for around a year. He appears to be relatively dangerous in all areas, although he’s also one of those fighters who’s far better offensively than defensively.

Girtz meanwhile has been in Bellator for years. He debuted there in 2012 and has put together a solid 7-6 record, going as far as a fight with Michael Chandler last year – although Chandler dealt with him comfortably and submitted him with an arm triangle in the first round.

He does have some strong wins on his ledger – Derek Campos, Melvin Guillard – but for the most part, he’s always been a fighter who loses to the better fighters he faces and wins against the lesser ones. An NCAA Division II All-American wrestler, Girtz is decent in all areas really, but doesn’t stand out in any either.

This is a winnable fight for Carvalho as I’m unsure of his ceiling, particularly as he’s training with a very good camp in SBG Ireland now, but he just doesn’t look as good an athlete as Girtz to me and I worry that the American will end up having a big speed advantage. It could be a close one but I’m going with Girtz.

The Pick: Girtz via unanimous decision

#6 Austin Vanderford vs. Cody Jones

The UFC's decision not to sign Austin Vanderford was surprising

I’ll be honest and say I’m baffled as to why the UFC didn’t sign Vanderford up when they had the chance in 2018. For those unaware, ‘AK-47’ is the husband of Paige VanZant, and as you might’ve imagined, he looks like a male model and fights pretty well, too. He even won his fight on Dana White’s Contender Series with a second-round submission, but apparently, that wasn’t enough to earn him a UFC deal.

It’s a confusing one; sure, he didn’t look great standing in that fight with Angelo Trevino, but he showed a lot of toughness to bounce back from a first round knockdown, and then hurt Trevino before choking him out in the second. Would he be a UFC title contender? Of course not, but he certainly would’ve been good enough for their roster.

At any rate, the UFC’s loss has been Bellator’s gain, as Vanderford signed with them last year and subsequently won his promotional debut by first round knockout. This upcoming fight against Cody Jones appears to be another potential showcase for him, too.

Jones – 4-2 in MMA and making his Bellator debut – appears to be undersized for 170lbs, nothing like Vanderford, who has quite an impressive physique. And footage on him shows a semi-tough fighter who’s defensively questionable, particularly on the feet. I’m happy to guess that Bellator’s promotional machine want to get behind Vanderford as a potential star, and to that end they’re likely taking baby steps and matching him well.

The Pick: Vanderford via first round submission