UFC 234: Whittaker vs. Gastelum - Predictions and Picks

#2 Israel Adesanya vs. Anderson Silva

Israel Adesanya is looking to usurp Anderson Silva's spot as the flashiest striker at 185lbs

It’s pretty clear to see why the UFC made this fight; essentially, it’s a fight between an ageing veteran who’s miles past his prime, but who was once the greatest striker in the history of the division in Anderson Silva, against the usurper, the new flashy striker looking to pick up the Brazilian’s old mantle in Israel Adesanya.

It’s also no secret who the UFC likely wants to win this fight – Adesanya has been heavily pushed by the promotion since his debut in February 2018, and he’ll probably be granted an immediate title shot with a win here. Silva has also been promised a title shot should he win, but like Royce Gracie against Matt Hughes and BJ Penn against Yair Rodriguez, it definitely feels like the UFC is hoping ‘The Spider’ will be a sacrificial victim.

Can the veteran find any way to pull this off? It seems unlikely to me. It’s often said that in fighting, the last thing to go is a fighter’s striking power, and we’ve seen evidence of that time and time again at Heavyweight, where the likes of Alistair Overeem and Mark Hunt remain dangerous despite being older and more shopworn fighters. But despite his insane striking skills, Silva was never a fighter who got by due to his insane power.

Instead, ‘The Spider’ was a technical marvel, able to catch his opponents with strikes they just couldn’t see coming. Silva’s success was built on his precision; his unrivalled speed, timing and reflexes, as well as an iron chin. But in 2019, at the age of 43, those gifts have most likely left Silva for good.

He certainly hasn’t looked like the same fighter he once was since returning from a suspension for a positive PED test in 2015. The last time Silva looked like his past self was probably against Nick Diaz in the fight in which he tested positive. Since then, he was beaten by Michael Bisping and Daniel Cormier, and then edged past Derek Brunson in a controversial fight before being suspended for another positive test.

In the fights with Bisping and Brunson in particular, worrying trends seemed to emerge – Silva looked more hittable than he ever did in his prime, even being knocked down by Bisping, and appeared to be relying more and more on his taunting, “clowning” style to set up his strikes rather than being able to use his reflexes and timing. And of course, even the Brunson fight is now two years old.

That doesn’t bode well at all for him here. Thus far in his UFC career, Adesanya has been perfect; sure, he was taken down a couple of times by Marvin Vettori in what was the toughest fight of his UFC career thus far, but against better wrestlers in Brad Tavares and Derek Brunson he didn’t struggle at all, simply piecing both men up with his striking before they even got close to taking him to the ground.

And like Silva in his prime, Adesanya’s striking style is almost impossible to read, based on unorthodox movement, timing and strikes that seemingly come from nowhere. Like Silva, Adesanya is also quite happy to use all eight limbs – throwing elbows and knees as easily as he does punches and kicks – and is adept at abusing his opponent from the clinch, too.

Watching ‘The Last Stylebender’ against Brunson last November was literally like a flashback to Silva in his prime, with the massacre resembling the Brazilian’s classic victories over Chris Leben and Forrest Griffin. But that Silva is long gone and Adesanya is as pinpoint-accurate and dangerous as ‘The Spider’ was back then.

There’s no guarantee that this is going to be easy for Adesanya – he could come in overconfident and get caught by a big shot from Silva, who likely still has the ability to put a hurt opponent away, and if the fight goes to the ground then ‘The Spider’ is definitely the superior grappler, with a genuine black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and numerous submission wins to his name, but it’s hard to see this fight going in that direction.

Instead, I suspect we’ll get a striking battle that looks tentative to begin with while Adesanya works out Silva’s timing. And from there he’ll catch the legend with something nasty and put him away – becoming the first man to do so since Chris Weidman knocked Silva out and ended his legendary title reign back in 2013.

The Pick: Adesanya via first round KO