UFC 234: Whittaker vs. Gastelum - Predictions and Picks

#5 Sam Alvey vs. Jimmy Crute

Is the book now written on how to beat Sam Alvey?

Initially, this fight would’ve seen Aussie prospect Crute taking on a fellow prospect in Ryan Spann in what would probably have been a lower risk, lower reward match. Spann’s withdrawal has now risen the stakes substantially higher, though. Crute is now faced with arguably a more dangerous opponent in Alvey, but also an opponent with a far bigger reputation. Win here, and a lot of people will be talking about ‘The Brute’ as a genuine talent to watch.

Crute’s December debut was fascinating in itself. Billed as a heavy-handed striker-come-brawler after an exciting win on Dana White’s Contender Series, people expected the Aussie to look to knock Paul Craig out, and yet he went right into the Scotsman’s wheelhouse, engaging in a fun grappling war with him that ended with Crute securing a kimura for the submission. It was a surprising show of skill from a fighter who’s still very young and inexperienced at 22 years old and 9-0.

Alvey, on the other hand, is highly experienced, as his career dates back to 2008 and he’s put together 16 UFC fights since his promotional debut in 2014. And the book is almost entirely written on his style of fighting and of winning; ‘Smilin Sam’ looks to lull his opponent into a false sense of security with an incredibly slow pace, and then looks to use his left hand to set up a brutally heavy right hook from southpaw that he’s used to knock out the likes of Cezar Ferreira and Dan Kelly.

Unfortunately, the book on how to beat Alvey is not only written, but it’s been published on numerous occasions. If his opponent can simply avoid the big counterpunch, then Alvey is probably going to lose. He’s been beaten to the said punch by the likes of Derek Brunson and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, both of whom knocked him out, while Elias Theodorou and Ramazan Emeev simply pushed a harder pace and used the clinch to outwork him for a decision.

Assuming Crute doesn’t get too silly and engage Alvey in a wild brawl, then I think this should be his fight to lose, despite his lack of experience. He appears to be a far better athlete than Alvey and worse for ‘Smilin Sam’, he’s also a big 205lber, not a blown-up 185lber. If he can bring the grappling skill he showed against Craig into play, then this could be a pretty easy night for him, as Alvey is almost purely a striker.

Even if he can’t get Alvey down, I don’t see any reason – assuming his fight IQ isn’t frighteningly low – why he should be lulled into Alvey’s usual gameplan. And Alvey’s chin is looking more compromised than ever now. I think Crute can find Alvey’s chin and take him out impressively here.

The Pick: Crute via first round TKO