UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith - Predictions and Picks

#3 Robbie Lawler vs. Ben Askren

UFC fans have been waiting for the debut of Ben Askren for years

Hardcore fans have been patiently waiting for former Bellator Welterweight champ Ben Askren to debut in the UFC for years, and now it’s finally happening as he takes on former UFC champion Robbie Lawler. This is a huge moment for ‘Funky Ben’ as if he can win impressively, he could well net a title shot – that is assuming his good friend and training partner Tyron Woodley loses his title to Usman. Lose, however, and the haters who labeled him boring and overrated – in the past, Dana White included – will be vindicated.

The crazy thing is that Askren could’ve come to the UFC way back in 2013 after ending his contract with Bellator – but due to a dispute with Dana White over various things, he ended up moving to ONE FC where he racked up a further six wins before retiring in 2017. Of course, last October came the stunning announcement that he’d been traded to the UFC with former Flyweight champ Demetrious Johnson going the other way. Essentially, he’s a huge signing – but can he live up to the hype?

As everyone who’s ever seen him fight is well aware, Askren’s strengths lie purely in his grappling game. He’s not a great striker by any means but he probably wouldn’t claim to be, nor is he an explosive wrestler capable of shooting blast double legs ala Woodley or Josh Koscheck. He is, however, a ridiculously skilled wrestler arguably a level above any we’ve seen in the UFC in a long time.

An NCAA Division I champion in 2006 and 2007 and a four-time All American, Askren competed in the 2008 Olympics for the USA in freestyle wrestling, although he didn’t achieve a medal. What makes Askren such a dangerous MMA wrestler though is his unorthodox, or ‘funky’ style – meaning he’s more willing to risk questionable positions in the cage in order to gain an advantage over his opponents.

That tendency led him into trouble on a couple of occasions during his Bellator career – where he went 9-0, picking up wins over Douglas Lima and Andrey Koreshkov in the process – but it’s also allowed him to develop a dangerous submission game, although he seems to prefer to overwhelm his opponent with ground strikes in ridiculous volume – like death by a thousand cuts.

So how does he match up with Lawler? Well, it’s a bit hard to say. 4 years ago Lawler likely would’ve been a nightmare match for Askren – his takedown defense was excellent and he’d used his vicious striking skills and apparently endless stamina to take out top wrestlers like Josh Koscheck, Johny Hendricks and Jake Ellenberger. Sure, he’d had trouble with grapplers during his StrikeForce days, but that was largely at 185lbs and didn’t seem to be an issue for him in the UFC.

That was 4 years ago, though. Since then he’s been through a pair of insane wars with Rory MacDonald and Carlos Condit – the kind of wars that take years off a career – and was knocked out by Tyron Woodley to lose his Welterweight title. Most recently, he lost to Rafael Dos Anjos in relatively one-sided fashion in what was largely a kickboxing match. Even that was over a year ago, though. Basically, there’s no recent evidence that Lawler can be easily outwrestled, but there’s also no recent evidence that he’s not close to the end of his career either.

I believe this fight likely comes down to how far gone Lawler is – if we get the slower, shopworn Lawler we saw against Dos Anjos then I can’t see any result other than Askren simply dragging him to the ground and outgrappling him for a three-round decision or a possible submission late in the fight. If Lawler is back in his 2015 Beast Mode though, then he could definitely hurt and finish Askren standing before one takedown is even completed.

In the end, I’ve bet on fighters who are past their prime before and it’s come back to bite me; Lawler looked completely finished against Dos Anjos and also tore his ACL during the fight and that’s a tricky injury for anyone to come back from, let alone a guy who’s 36 and has the kind of mileage on him that Lawler does. I can see ‘Ruthless’ hurting Askren a couple of times, but I expect ‘Funky Ben’ to drag him into a grappling match and beat him there, making good on his UFC debut.

The Pick: Askren via unanimous decision