UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith - Predictions and Picks

#5 Cody Garbrandt vs. Pedro Munhoz

Can former Bantamweight champ Cody Garbrandt return to form against Pedro Munhoz?

The main card will open with a fantastic-sounding fight in what is arguably the UFC’s most stacked division right now, as former Bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt faces off with Pedro Munhoz, who is 6-1 in his last 7 fights and could easily have been 7-0 with different judges in his fight with John Dodson. Essentially, this should tell us whether Garbrandt can ever recapture the magic that saw him dethrone Dominick Cruz in December 2016, and also whether Munhoz can ever become a legitimate title contender.

In terms of how these two match up, you’d have to say that Munhoz is the more rounded fighter. He’s more of a kickboxer than Garbrandt – who is almost purely a puncher – and loves to throw leg kicks and in particular, a nasty body kick – one of which took out Bryan Caraway late in 2018. He’s also an extremely dangerous grappler, with the guillotine choke being his go-to move. ‘The Young Punisher’ has 6 guillotine wins in his career, 3 of which came in the UFC.

Garbrandt meanwhile is one of the best boxers in the division, with some excellent movement and footwork that makes him hard to track down – as evidenced when he was able to largely outstrike the seemingly untouchable Cruz. He carries tremendous knockout power, and has turned the lights out on 9 different opponents – including 4 in the Octagon.

Outside of his two losses to TJ Dillashaw – and a serious back problem that saw him sidelined for a few months in 2018 – ‘No Love’ has been perfect inside the UFC. But the Dillashaw losses exposed a couple of worrying flaws in his game; firstly he became far too emotionally involved in the feud between the two, which caused him to make mistakes, and secondly, he throws with such power that he sometimes telegraphs his shots – making him a hittable target for a more fleet-footed striker.

Thankfully for him, Munhoz is not a more fleet-footed striker than him. He’s good, sure, but he’s also more of a plodding, power Muay Thai-based kickboxer, rather than the footwork-focused machine that is Dillashaw. The likelihood of Munhoz catching Garbrandt with a counter like Dillashaw did seems pretty slim. If anything, I suspect Garbrandt could use his own speed and footwork to catch Munhoz on the feet.

Munhoz has never been finished by strikes – in fact, he’s never been finished, period – but then he’s never come up against someone capable of hitting as hard as Garbrandt, who clearly has unusual power at 135lbs. He’s also not an incredible wrestler – meaning unless Garbrandt decides to go for a takedown, this fight is likely to stay vertical for as long as ‘No Love’ decides.

I could see Munhoz surviving the distance here but I think Garbrandt will want to send a message, and so I’m taking him to become the first fighter to stop ‘The Young Punisher’, probably around the halfway mark.

The Pick: Garbrandt via second-round TKO