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This weekend sees the UFC present one of the biggest shows of the year, as UFC 241 goes down from Anaheim, California. Unlike some of the earlier pay-per-views this year, UFC 241 only has one title fight – the Heavyweight title rematch between champ Daniel Cormier and former titleholder Stipe Miocic – but the undercard more than makes up for that.
With two highly anticipated fights – Paulo Costa vs. Yoel Romero and Nate Diaz vs. Anthony Pettis – to look forward to prior to the main event, as well as the presence of contenders like Raphael Assuncao and Derek Brunson and prospects like Sodiq Yusuff and Manny Bermudez, this should be awesome.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic II.
#1 Daniel Cormier vs. Stipe Miocic
Despite the fact that the pay-per-view it headlined – UFC 226 – did a less-than-stellar buyrate in the end, the original fight between Daniel Cormier and Stipe Miocic just over a year ago was one of 2018’s biggest and most memorable moments.
A champion vs. champion fight with the Light-Heavyweight kingpin Cormier stepping up to face Heavyweight champ Miocic, the fight ended in stunning fashion as Cormier knocked out his bigger opponent in the first round to become a UFC double champion.
Interestingly enough, this rematch was never originally on the cards. Cormier always planned to retire before his 40th birthday and wanted his career to end with a big “money fight” against former UFC champ and current WWE superstar Brock Lesnar.
Instead, though, he beat an overmatched Derrick Lewis at UFC 230 and when Lesnar chose pro-wrestling over a return to MMA, the UFC decided to put this fight together despite Miocic not taking a single fight in the interim.
It’s an odd situation clearly thrown together by the Lesnar issue, but really, it’s hard to complain. Miocic was a dominant champion after all and probably deserved a rematch, and the top contender right now – Francis Ngannou – can afford to wait a little longer.
With that said, if Cormier wins and chooses to retire – which may well happen – a fight between Miocic and Ngannou for the vacant title sounds disastrous to me as you’d have a guy coming off a loss against a guy he already beat comprehensively. That’s looking too far ahead into the future, though.
So how do these two match up? It’s quite an interesting fight really, mostly to see whether Miocic’s been able to make any adjustments since last year. I actually picked him to win the first fight, thinking his size and likely strength advantage would negate any technical wrestling advantage held by Cormier. That was totally wrong, though, as Cormier clearly spotted a bit of a weak spot in the then-champion’s armour.
Essentially, he realised he could probably outwork Miocic from the clinch, rather than attempt to wrestle him in the traditional manner with takedowns. And so he began a pattern of clinching, wrestling Miocic from there before looking to land big combinations as the two separated.
Eventually, that paid off in dividends as he caught Miocic with some huge punches late in the first round and was able to outright knock him out.
Can Miocic avoid the same thing happening again? Well, I guess he could try to ensure that he protects himself coming out of the clinch, but I’m not sure that he’s got the right style to be able to have much more success, to be honest, now that it’s clearly been proven that he’s not much, if at all, physically stronger than ‘DC’.
After all, the only two opponents to ever give Cormier issues have been Jon Jones and Alexander Gustafsson – two much longer strikers. And while Miocic does have an 8” reach advantage on him, he’s never really been the type to snipe at an opponent from the outside.
Even doing that isn’t a guarantee of a win – Gustafsson had success but was unable to keep Cormier from grabbing hold of him, and while Jones obviously knocked him out in their second fight, he relied on his own clinch work to win their first meeting and only turned to range kickboxing when Cormier began to outwork him from close quarters in the rematch.
Miocic’s problem is that his own bread and butter is strikes from close range mixed with ground-and-pound; it’s how he pretty much beat up Junior Dos Santos in their first fight and then KO'ed him in their second, it’s how he took out Alistair Overeem and Francis Ngannou too.
He did catch Fabricio Werdum with a beautiful counterpunch to take him out, but Cormier’s chin is far stouter than the Brazilian’s and he isn’t likely to run forward with no defense, either.
For me unless Father Time has suddenly and dramatically caught up with Cormier – and there’s honestly no reason to believe it has just yet – then stylistically this is just a bad match for Miocic based on the first outing, and given he hasn’t fought since, I can’t imagine him being able to make the correct adjustments to be able to win.
I think this goes maybe longer than the first meeting, but ends in the same fashion.
The Pick: Cormier via third-round TKO
#2 Nate Diaz vs. Anthony Pettis
Well, it’s been a long time coming but UFC 241 should see the return of Nate Diaz from a self-imposed exile of almost three years. Last time we saw him, his stock couldn’t have been much higher, as he choked out Conor McGregor to begin 2016 and while he lost the rematch, the fight was razor-close and was the consensus Fight of the Year.
But of course, the Diaz brothers have always marched to the tune of their own band and for reasons largely known only to Nate himself, he’s chosen to sit out since then, apparently waiting for a “money fight” that’s just never arrived. So why’s he back now? I guess the money he earned from the McGregor fights has dried up. Who knows with Diaz?
At any rate, assuming this fight actually takes place – again, with Diaz the only thing that’s for sure is, in the words of wrestling legend Sting, nothing’s for sure – it should be a lot of fun. It’s actually fascinating because it’s a fight Diaz was demanding back in 2013, when Pettis was the UFC Lightweight champ.
Of course, a lot has changed since then; Anthony Pettis lost his title to Rafael Dos Anjos and went on a massive slide, losing 3 straight before struggling through an ill-advised move to 145lbs. 2018 was better for him – he moved back to 155lbs, beat Michael Chiesa and put on a phenomenal fight in a losing effort to Tony Ferguson – and in 2019 he’s surprisingly moved to 170lbs.
Giving up a lot of size against Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson in March, it was expected that Pettis would struggle. And he did, for a round or two at least, before he uncorked an all-time great knockout, stiffening ‘Wonderboy’ up with a superman punch with just moments remaining in the second round. So how does he match up with Diaz?
For me this comes down to how much Diaz actually wants to fight. If we get the motivated Diaz that fought McGregor in 2016, then I think he’s a really bad match for Pettis and he should win with surprising ease. If we get the sloppy, disinterested Diaz from his 2014 fight with Rafael Dos Anjos, though? I think ‘Showtime’ can definitely pick him apart.
Diaz has basically been the same fighter from the moment he set foot into the Octagon back in 2007. He’s an excellent boxer with great timing and a brilliant knack of knowing exactly when to turn up the heat on his opponents. One moment he’ll be going for low-power, high-volume strikes – the notorious ‘Stockton Slap’ – and then suddenly he’ll really go to town with combinations capable of ending his opponent’s night.
On the ground he’s also a fantastic grappler, a high-level BJJ black belt who can catch nasty submissions – particularly chokes – from all kinds of areas. And his cardio is tremendous too.
But he’s got some major weaknesses. If an opponent refuses to be sucked into his game, he can be picked apart by a better kickboxer, particularly one willing to kick him in the legs and body.
And better wrestlers have always traditionally succeeded against him too. Like his brother, he’s often too willing to give up a takedown and attempt to work off his back – a consistent turn-off for judges.
The issue for Pettis is that he just doesn’t fit the bill as far as the type of fighter who can beat Diaz goes. He’s a great kicker, sure, but leg kicks have never truly been his forte and while he does have incredible body kicks, he’s also going to be at a big disadvantage when it comes to reach in this one. Diaz is a more natural 155lber, but he’s also got the same praying mantis build that gave ‘Showtime’ issues against Thompson.
That means he’s going to have to step inside Diaz’s reach to hurt him, and that puts him right in the firing line. Throw in the fact that he’s not a great offensive wrestler and he’s shown cardio issues for years now, and it feels like a recipe for disaster. It’s very easy to see Diaz abusing a tired Pettis with boxing combinations before wrapping him up in a guillotine, for instance.
But of course, that all depends on how Diaz comes into this fight both mentally and physically – and whether the years on the shelf and the years of taking damage beforehand have affected him. At 34 he’s probably not in his athletic prime anymore and while he was never an explosive fighter, it wouldn’t be a shocker to see that great cardio losing a step or two.
But in the end, we just won’t know what kind of Diaz we’re getting until he steps into the Octagon, and with that in mind I’ve got to pick based on how I think the styles of the two mesh. So I’m going with Stockton’s favourite son to beat Pettis up down the strait before submitting him. Will you really be surprised?
The Pick: Diaz via third-round submission
#3 Yoel Romero vs. Paulo Costa
It feels like the UFC has been trying to match up Middleweight monsters Paulo Costa and Yoel Romero for ages now – to the point where neither man has fought since last summer. Romero apparently had some nagging injuries, Costa reportedly got busted by USADA for using an IV; basically, this fight has suffered a lot of delays.
Thankfully though, the UFC have finally delivered the fight everyone’s been looking forward to. MMA fans are notoriously against pro-wrestling gimmicks, but realistically the main reason that everyone’s been salivating over this one is the insane physiques that these two men possess. Basically, it’s Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem at Middleweight, if you get my gist.
Of the two, Romero is far more proven at the top level. Sure, he came up short in two title fights against Robert Whittaker, but it’s not like he should be ashamed of his performance in either fight. Both were incredible wars that saw both men take ludicrous amounts of damage, and in all honesty, both decisions could’ve been awarded to Romero on another day, particularly the second fight at UFC 225.
The Cuban is simply one of the greatest athletes to ever compete in MMA; an Olympic silver medallist in freestyle wrestling, Romero is naturally one of the best takedown artists in the division, but he’s also become one of the most dangerous strikers too, carrying KO power in everything he throws.
And all that explosive athleticism means he’s able to strike when opponents least expect it too – witness his flying knee KO of Chris Weidman, or the way he suddenly turned the lights out on Luke Rockhold in 2018.
As far as weaknesses go, it’s hard to find them. Perhaps the only one that really stands out is his tendency to strike in bursts; Romero will happily circle and do very little for long swathes of time before suddenly exploding into action, and so if an opponent can capitalise on those slowdowns and avoid taking big damage, I guess he’s beatable.
Costa meanwhile is not an athlete on the level of Romero, but he’s looked no less dangerous. With a huge, muscular frame at 185lbs, he fights like the ‘Ubereem’ version of Alistair Overeem, all power punches, kicks and knees from distance and from close range. He appears to be so confident in his own striking power that he’ll basically walk his opponents down until he gets them cornered, and from there he attacks until they’re done for.
‘The Eraser’ doesn’t have great striking defence – Uriah Hall caught him cleanly a few times before succumbing due to his own lack of durability – but thus far that hasn’t mattered too much.
We also haven’t seen a lot of him on the ground, but long-time viewers will remember his stint on TUF Brazil 3, and back then he was known more as a ground specialist, so he’s clearly got a strong Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game.
A Costa win would be better for the UFC and the division as a whole; he’d be a fresh contender to add to the mix and Sean Shelby could easily put him against the Whittaker/Israel Adesanya winner in a hell of a title fight.
But in all honesty, I find it hard to see him winning this one, assuming Romero – who is inexplicably now 42 years old – hasn’t fallen off a cliff physically.
Romero won’t be easily corralled like Costa’s earlier opponents and more to the point I just can’t see him wilting like the Brazilian’s other victims either; he took insane damage from Whittaker and survived and also came back from the dead to take out Tim Kennedy back in 2014. And if Costa clinches with him, it’s hard to see him having success against an Olympic silver medallist.
Throw in the fact that Costa’s equally likely to run out of gas as the Cuban is, and I can see a situation where Romero simply manages to avoid or absorb everything Costa throws early before suddenly exploding into life and destroying the Brazilian with a rush of insane violence.
Not only does this feel like too big of a step up for ‘The Eraser’, but I also see Romero as perhaps the worst match for him at the top of the division too.
The Pick: Romero via second-round TKO
#4 Gabriel Benitez vs. Sodiq Yusuff
Even on a huge, loaded card like this one, I’ve got a feeling that this fight could be a sleeper bet to win the Fight of the Night award. In my opinion the cast of the first season of TUF: Latin America, while perhaps not the most talented bunch of fighters, were some of the most reckless and exciting talent ever brought into the promotion en masse.
That’s probably why there’s so many of them still around on the roster. And ‘Moggly’ Benitez is one of the stand-outs from that crop.
Yusuff meanwhile burst onto the scene with a tremendous showing on Dana White’s Contender Series last year and then violently knocked out Suman Mokhtarian in his UFC debut proper.
A win over Sheymon Moraes followed this past March, proving Yusuff – a native of Nigeria – was more than just a simple power-puncher, as he showed poise, patience, a skilled striking game and impressive cardio too.
This should be an interesting fight because while I wouldn’t necessarily call Benitez a step up in competition for Yusuff in terms of the stylistic match – he’s not as clean a striker as Moraes is – he’s certainly a step up in the sense that he’ll come out aggressively and will push the pace, and he’ll also present issues on the ground for ‘Super Sodiq’ should the fight go there, as he’s got a number of submissions to his name, and is dangerous in particular with the guillotine choke.
Where ‘Moggly’ could fall down here is the issue of speed. While he picked Jason Knight apart impressively in their 2017 fight, he’s just not the fastest fighter on the UFC roster – and it was that lack of speed and athleticism that led directly to both his KO loss to Andre Fili and his decision loss to Enrique Barzola, a fight he was actually winning in the early going.
And worryingly for him, Yusuff will probably be the fastest, most explosive opponent he’s ever faced.
Yusuff is admittedly still very unproven in a lot of areas – he has a TKO loss on his record prior to his UFC stint and we just don’t know all that much about his ground game and defensive wrestling – but I’m just not convinced that ‘Moggly’ is the man to really test him in those areas right now.
More than likely this will be a straightforward shootout; Benitez may well try to pick Yusuff apart as he did Knight but he’ll find himself outgunned, and even if Yusuff can’t finish him off, I think he’ll catch him enough to take a decision.
The Pick: Yusuff via unanimous decision
#5 Derek Brunson vs. Ian Heinisch
It’s always nice to see an unexpected fighter make some waves in the UFC, and Ian Heinisch definitely fits that bill. Brought in as a late replacement for Tom Breese to face veteran Cezar Ferreira last year after a win on Dana White’s Contender Series, ‘The Hurricane’ surprised everyone by both outstriking and outgrappling ‘Mutante’ to take a clear decision.
Antonio Carlos Junior looked like a far tougher match for him earlier this year, but again, Heinisch came through; ‘Shoeface’ dominated him in the first round only for Heinisch to survive the onslaught, and from there his sheer toughness and powerful wrestling took over as he beat up the Brazilian for a clear-cut decision.
Derek Brunson is a different type of opponent entirely, though. Sure, it’s clear at this stage that the StrikeForce veteran won’t ever be a genuine title contender, but he might just be the toughest gatekeeper there is at 185lbs.
An excellent wrestler, Brunson began his UFC tenure largely as a dull, blanketing fighter, but somewhere around 2015 he discovered some serious knockout power, and since then he’s mixed his striking and wrestling together with devastating consequences for a lot of his opponents.
The left hook – either as an attacking haymaker or on the counter – is usually Brunson’s weapon of choice, and he’s used it to fell the likes of Lyoto Machida, Dan Kelly and Uriah Hall in the Octagon.
Most recently he fell back on his strong wrestling and clinch game to beat Elias Theodorou, and while it wasn’t an entertaining fight, it stood as a reminder that he’s more than a simple power puncher.
However, Brunson’s weaknesses have been exposed plenty of times too. The most notable of those weaknesses? When faced with an opponent he perceives as a better striker – think Robert Whittaker or Israel Adesanya – he tends to rush his attacks in an attempt to either land a haymaker or force a clinch, and that leaves him wide open for counters. It’s why both of those fighters, as well as Jacare Souza were able to knock him out with relative ease.
Can Heinisch have the same success? I’m honestly not convinced he can. Adesanya’s timing is something that nobody else in the division possesses, and Whittaker has the kind of striking nuances that are incredibly hard to prep for.
Souza isn’t nearly as good a striker as either of those men but his incredible ground game always made him a tricky match for Brunson and it looked like Brunson was wary of the takedown, which led directly to him being open for the knockout.
More to the point, both of Heinisch’s Octagon successes have come directly due to his opponent gassing out; both Ferreira and Carlos Junior were arguably beating ‘The Hurricane’ until they ran out of steam, and Brunson isn’t likely to do that, particularly if he goes down the grappling route.
I just can’t see Heinisch being able to outwrestle Brunson in this fight, and that doesn’t bode well for him.
In the end Heinisch is probably closer to a Dan Kelly or Roan Carneiro than he is Whittaker or Adesanya, and while he’ll probably continue to have a solid UFC career against fighters lower on the totem pole, there’s a reason that Brunson only ever loses to truly elite fighters.
Heinisch might be able to tag him if he gets too wild but even then I don’t think he’s got the power to put him away. A left hook should end ‘The Hurricane’ probably in the first round.
The Pick: Brunson via first-round KO
#6 The Prelims: ESPN card
The upper half of UFC 241’s prelim card will be shown on ESPN, and well, we have a truly baffling headliner, especially when you consider what’s underneath it.
Devonte Smith returns at Lightweight to face Clay Collard, who is taking the fight on late notice and has gone 4-1 on the regional scene since being released by the UFC in 2015. A bit of a crude brawler in his first UFC stint, his lone memorable outing came in a loss to Max Holloway in which he showed incredible toughness.
Will that be enough to let him survive Smith? I’m actually going to say no. ‘King Kage’ showed insane punching power in both of his UFC fights thus far and with 9 KO wins on his 11 fight ledger, I think he can take out a former Featherweight here. Smith via KO is my pick.
The most notable prelim comes at Bantamweight, as former top contender Raphael Assuncao takes on surging prospect Cory Sandhagen. Quite how this isn’t headlining is beyond me!
Anyhow, Assuncao lost his last fight to Marlon Moraes but outside of that he’s looked excellent for years now; he’s not the fastest or most explosive fighter but his fundamentals are tremendous and he doesn’t really have any genuine weaknesses.
Sandhagen meanwhile has looked great in his UFC tenure thus far and picked up a huge win over John Lineker in April. For me this all depends on whether Sandhagen can hurt Assuncao on the feet and also avoid his takedown, and really it could go either way given his ceiling hasn’t really been seen yet.
Assuncao via decision seems like the smart pick but a Sandhagen win would be great for the division as a whole.
In another Bantamweight clash, Manny Bermudez faces Casey Kenney. I won’t beat around the bush here; Kenney looked strong in his UFC debut win over Ray Borg and is clearly a talented fighter, but to me Bermudez has elite-level potential – his submission game has looked phenomenal throughout his UFC tenure and he’s made tapping out his opponents look scarily easy. I think he’s on the fast track to the top ten and Kenney will end up tapping in short order here.
Finally, Drakkar Klose faces Christos Giagos in a Lightweight match that will likely be decided on the ground somehow. Essentially, Giagos lacks the athleticism to really reach the top level of the UFC, but his grappling is good enough to take out lower-level opponents all day long.
Klose is a grade-A athlete however and he’s a powerful wrestler and striker to boot. If Giagos can put him on his back then it’s a winnable fight, but I’m not convinced he can and if Klose gets the takedown then I could see him beating on Giagos from the top. He could also keep the fight standing to punish him, too. Klose by TKO is my pick here.
#7 The Prelims: UFC Fight Pass card
Fight Pass subscribers can also check out a trio of earlier prelims on this card. Topping things off is a Strawweight fight between Hannah Cifers and Jodie Esquibel, and this could be the last chance saloon for Esquibel in particular as she’s lost her first 3 UFC fights.
Cifers didn’t show a lot in her UFC debut but she’s a strong kickboxer and I think Esquibel’s best days are behind her. Cifers by decision is my pick.
At Bantamweight, Kyung Ho Kang returns to face Brandon Davis. An early product of the Contender Series, Davis is hard-nosed and has skills in all areas, but he was largely outgrappled in all of his UFC losses which makes me lean towards ‘Mr Perfect’ here, as the Korean is a genuinely fantastic – and aggressive – grappler. I like Kang by submission.
Finally at Flyweight, Sabina Mazo takes on Shana Dobson. It’s a hard fight to pick given both women are largely unproven at this level but I’m leaning towards Mazo; she showed flashes of potential in her UFC debut against Maryna Moroz while Dobson hasn’t fought in over a year and didn’t really light up the cage in her previous fights. Mazo via decision is my pick.
