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This weekend sees the final UFC pay-per-view of 2019, and it’s all set to be one of the biggest shows of the year, as UFC 245 will feature three title fights, as well as a handful of UFC legends up and down the undercard.
The last time we saw three title fights on a UFC card was some time ago – November 2017’s UFC 217 – and this card promises to be equally earth-shattering, with the Welterweight title, Featherweight title and Women’s Bantamweight title all on the line.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington.
#1 Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington
This Welterweight title clash has been a long time in the making; Covington – who is currently on a seven-fight winning streak – captured the Interim Welterweight title back in June 2018 with then-champion Tyron Woodley on the shelf, but various issues meant that a Woodley/Covington title fight never took place.
Instead, Usman – who is unbeaten in the UFC at 10-0 – ended up taking his shot at Woodley in March, and to the surprise of many, he dominated ‘The Chosen One’ over five rounds, dethroning him and taking his title in the process.
The idea of two fighters on such tremendous winning streaks would be intriguing by itself, but there’s so much more about this fight that makes it a great one; both men are amongst the best wrestlers in the UFC as a whole, let alone the 170lbs division, but more importantly, they despise each other.
I don’t want to get political in an MMA article of course, but the backstory of a fight between a Nigerian immigrant in Usman and the Donald Trump-endorsing, quasi-right wing Covington writes itself. Will it translate to dollars at the box office? The UFC hopes so.
In terms of the fight? It’s close to call, but personally, I’m favouring Usman. Both men fight in a similar fashion; their whole game is built around pressure. Both men have been excellent collegiate wrestlers – Usman was an NCAA Division II national champion at the University of Nebraska, while Covington was an All-American at the Division I level and was a two-time Pac-10 Conference champion.
However, neither Usman nor Covington is a pure wrestler in the mold of say, early Josh Koscheck or Brock Lesnar, though. Both men tend to use their striking and cardio to force their opponents to back up, which then opens them up for the takedown. And once they’ve got hold of their opponents, neither man tends to let up, forcing them to the ground to be fed a steady diet of punches and elbows.
In terms of striking, though, it’s ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ who appears to be the more advanced. Usman uses his long, rangy frame with his 76” reach to hit his opponents with heavy punches from the outside, and in recent fights – most notably against Woodley and Rafael Dos Anjos – he showed a developing jab and an ability to string combinations together, using the uppercut to tremendous effect in his title win.
Covington has displayed a willingness to strike – he even largely stayed on his feet during his impressive win over Robbie Lawler – but he’s also far wilder with his punches and doesn’t have the greatest defence in comparison to Usman. Demian Maia for instance landed some heavy shots on him before succumbing to his takedowns and pressure, as did Dos Anjos in their fight.
Against Usman, that wildness could well find him in trouble. ‘Chaos’ has never faced an opponent who has been able to stop his takedown, and that’s meant that he’s been able to throw his wild strikes with little return as his foes have been so concerned with his wrestling game.
Usman on the other hand has never been taken down in the UFC – even by Woodley – and appears to carry supernatural strength. Even for a wrestler as skilled as Covington, it’s hard to imagine the Nigerian being put on his back. And if Covington can’t use that pressure game and take him down, he’s left with a pretty crude striking arsenal.
Add in the fact that Usman is likely to be able to match the pace of ‘Chaos’ – he’s never gassed in the UFC to date – and I just can’t see Covington being able to have his usual success here. I don’t think he’s as polished a fighter as Usman and assuming ‘Chaos’ hasn’t totally gotten into his head, then an angry ‘Nigerian Nightmare’ is going to be hard to stop.
The Pick: Usman via fourth round submission
#2 Max Holloway vs. Alexander Volkanovski
The second title fight on UFC 245 could easily have headlined any other big pay-per-view, as Max Holloway will be looking to defend his Featherweight title for the fourth time against an undefeated challenger in Australia’s Alexander Volkanovski.
Both men have been on fantastic form; Holloway showed no issues stemming from his defeat at 155lbs to Dustin Poirier when he easily jabbed his way to a clear-cut decision over veteran Frankie Edgar in July, while Volkanovski stunned everyone by heading to Brazil to outpoint former champ Jose Aldo in May.
For me this fight comes down to something pretty simple: can Volkanovski get inside the range of Holloway and punish him with his heavy combinations? It’s a fascinating question, because according to records, despite giving up 5 inches in height, Volkanovski actually has a longer reach than Holloway – 71.5” to the champion’s 69”.
However, it’s not like ‘Blessed’ is simply all about using his reach. Holloway is a master of range in every possible way, as he primarily uses his footwork to open up on his opponents from angles that they may not expect. More worryingly for anyone looking to dethrone him, he’s also blessed – no pun intended – with a preternatural tendency to know exactly when to turn up the heat on his opponent, as we saw when he predicted his fourth round stoppage of Brian Ortega a year ago.
Add in the fact that his chin is insanely tough – he’s more than willing to take a hard shot and has never been stopped by strikes despite facing the likes of Poirier, Aldo and Conor McGregor – and the Hawaiian is an incredibly tricky opponent to beat.
To win this fight I feel like Volkanovski needs to get into Holloway’s face from the off; regardless of his reach advantage he can’t afford to fight from distance against a man with the movement and range work of ‘Blessed’. If the Aussie can get inside and rough Holloway up in the clinch – and look to use his somewhat underrated wrestling game to get the Hawaiian to the ground – then he’s got a shot. However, it’s just hard to see him forcing Holloway onto his back foot for the whole fight, and even if he can get the Hawaiian down, Holloway has a more than capable grappling game too.
Overall I just feel like Volkanovski is too much like Edgar for Holloway to struggle against; Edgar is perhaps a better wrestler while ‘Alexander the Great’ is a more nuanced striker who hits harder, but he’s still a shorter fighter attempting to get into range against a man who is the absolute best at finding angles to unload heavy combinations on his opponents without slowing down at all.
In conclusion, if the same Holloway we saw against Edgar and Ortega shows up – and the cumulative damage hasn’t started to wear on him – then I can’t see Volkanovski winning this fight, and I expect to see him beaten up by combinations until he either wilts, or loses a decision.
The Pick: Holloway via unanimous decision
#3 Amanda Nunes vs. Germaine De Randamie
Currently the champion in both the Featherweight and Bantamweight divisions in the UFC, Amanda Nunes is probably the greatest female fighter in MMA history at this stage. Her record speaks for itself; she has wins over Ronda Rousey, Cris Cyborg, Holly Holm, Miesha Tate and Valentina Shevchenko, and she hasn’t lost since 2014.
Unfortunately, with such greatness comes a slight issue; Nunes now has a dearth of viable contenders, and so she’s faced here with De Randamie, who already succumbed to a TKO against ‘The Lioness’ back in 2013. Sure, she’s on a five-fight winning streak, but the truth is that ‘The Iron Lady’ hasn’t really developed as a fighter since then – she’s still an excellent kickboxer with sharp strikes, but while she’s solid in the clinch, there’s still a ton of questions around her ground game.
That means that unless Nunes decides to get drawn into the Dutchwoman’s game – a point-fighting kickboxing bout – then she’s got far more ways to win. Nunes is a physical beast at 135lbs and will likely hold a big strength advantage even over De Randamie, who’s a big Bantamweight in her own right. She throws strikes with insane power, and is also a terrifying grappler, particularly from the top position.
Nunes’s great weakness in the past has been her cardio; she gassed against Cat Zingano after dominating the early rounds, which led to her TKO loss, and she also struggled to keep pace against Shevchenko, almost giving both fights away despite coming away with the decision both times.
Luckily for her in this fight, De Randamie isn’t known for pushing a fast pace; in fact, she tends to lull her opponents into a slow-paced fight, meaning she hasn’t really made for many exciting fights in the UFC. Even if Nunes’ cardio isn’t on point, then, it’s hard to see ‘The Iron Lady’ forcing her to gas out.
I could easily see ‘The Lioness’ coming out and swarming De Randamie for another early finish, but that’d be risky – if she gets too wild she could easily eat a heavy counter, and GDR can knock opponents out, as Aspen Ladd found out. With that in mind I suspect Nunes will instead look to secure a takedown, put the Dutchwoman on her back, and smash her until she either gives up a TKO or submission. I’ll go with a repeat of their first fight.
The Pick: Nunes via second round TKO
#4 Jose Aldo vs. Marlon Moraes
For years, UFC fans were led to believe that longtime Featherweight kingpin Jose Aldo’s future lay at 155 lbs; he was even mooted as a potential title challenger there at times, and stated on numerous occasions that he found the weight cut to 145 lbs a tricky one. That’s why it’s such a shock to see that in his first weight move, he’s actually moving downwards to 135 lbs to clash with his countryman Marlon Moraes.
Photos have already emerged of Aldo looking drawn-out during his weight cut, and that to me is a massive alarm bell. ‘Scarface’ isn’t old at 33, but he’s been around at the very top for years now and has faced nothing but killers for a decade. He’s taken tons of damage along the way in clashes with Frankie Edgar, Conor McGregor, Chad Mendes and Max Holloway, and earlier this year he wilted entirely when faced with the pressure of Alexander Volkanovski.
None of this bodes well for a fight with Moraes, who is firmly still in his prime. ‘Magic’ lost out in his quest to become Bantamweight champion in June, but in his fight with Henry Cejudo, he was chewing the Olympian up for two rounds with his vicious striking before Cejudo somehow willed his way to a third-round TKO.
Not many other fighters – if any at all – could’ve made the comeback that Cejudo made in that fight. Most opponents would’ve been broken apart by Moraes’ vicious assault to the legs, and it would’ve been the Brazilian with his hand raised at the end of the fight. At his best, Moraes has insane timing and power in his strikes – particularly in his low kicks – and an unparalleled killer instinct. He’s also an underrated grappler, as we saw when he submitted Raphael Assuncao in February.
Sound like anyone familiar? Essentially, Moraes is a younger version of the fighter Aldo was in his prime, and he’s taken nothing like the damage nor wear-and-tear that ‘Scarface’ has over the past decade. Throw in the fact that Aldo may struggle to make 135lbs, drawing himself out physically in the process, and this sounds like a horrible idea for the former champion.
I think this fight goes badly for Aldo and we may well be about to see the end of his storied career. I think Moraes uses his own game against him, chewing his legs up with low kicks before taking him out with strikes. The snake always eats its own tail in MMA, and this will be another prime example of that theory in action.
The Pick: Moraes via second round TKO
#5 Petr Yan vs. Urijah Faber
Like the previous fight, this one sees a legendary former champion – albeit in the WEC rather than the UFC – facing a deadly young gun. Yan is undefeated in the UFC at 5-0, he’s destroyed top contenders like Jimmie Rivera and John Dodson, and his striking combinations are absolutely terrifying.
Faber on the other hand retired back in 2016 following a win over Brad Pickett, and returned this summer to TKO Ricky Simon in a surprisingly quick fight. Faber remains the great fighter he always was; his grappling is phenomenal and his range of chokes are dangerous, and he’s a solid striker, with his overhand right being his best weapon.
Unfortunately, ‘The California Kid’ is also not a kid any more. At 40 years old he’s much slower and more shopworn than ever, and while he had Simon out of the Octagon in just 46 seconds, he still took a worrying amount of shots before landing the big bomb on him.
Is there a chance that Faber could surprise Yan by catching him with that overhand right and follow it by choking him out with his patented guillotine? I guess so – every fighter has a shot and Faber is still extremely talented and one of the best ever at 135lbs – but I worry for him against someone with as much speed and punching power as Yan.
Arguably no other fighter at 135lbs chains combinations together quite as well as ‘No Mercy’. Against Rivera, he was struggling at times, but then turned up the heat on the veteran contender and forced him to wilt under his volume, and the same happened to Dodson.
When you consider that Faber was made to look slow by Rivera three years ago – and he’s been on the shelf ever since outside of that Simon fight – it just becomes hard to see how he can defeat the Russian in this one. The UFC has always used its veterans to make names for its prospects, and while Faber still dreams of one last title fight against Henry Cejudo, I think he’s bitten off more than he can chew in this one.
Can Yan finish Faber? I’m not sure; if he could, then the next title shot is almost certainly his. But then Faber has always been incredibly tough, and his ability to take punishment is something that seemingly has never waned. I like ‘No Mercy’ in this one but I think it goes the distance.
The Pick: Yan via unanimous decision
#6 The Prelims: ESPN+ card
Four prelims will be shown on ESPN+ this weekend, the biggest one being a clash of explosive power punchers at Welterweight, as Geoff Neal takes on Mike Perry. Neal has looked fantastic in his UFC career to date, piecing up all of his opponents with his striking and showing solid grappling when he’s had to. Perry meanwhile appeared to be a latter-day Phil Baroni clone – all power punches and trash talk – but recently he’s shown more wrinkles to his game, and now looks tough and well-rounded. This is a hard fight to pick but I’m not sure how Neal will react to being on the end of some hard shots, so I’m going with the more proven Perry by decision in an exciting brawl.
At Women’s Bantamweight we could also see the next top contender decided, as Brazilian grappler Ketlen Vieira returns to take on rising Mexican star Irene Aldana. An improving fighter, Aldana now looks strong on the ground and is learning to use her strong striking game to pressure her opponents. Vieira meanwhile is almost purely a stifling grappler, with an incredibly dangerous top game. The issue with ‘Fenomeno’ is her layoff; Vieira hasn’t fought since March 2018. I’ll go with Vieira via decision anyway – she’s a tremendous talent – but to see her look rusty and wind up losin wouldn’t shock me.
Middleweight grinders Ian Heinisch and Omari Akhmedov face off in what could be a potentially dull match given Akhmedov’s slow-paced style. I like Heinisch to win this one as his wrestling is better and he’s incredibly gritty and turns up the heat late in the fight, but it could be one to forget. Heinisch via decision is the pick.
Finally veteran Welterweights Matt Brown and Ben Saunders throw down, with Brown returning from a self-imposed layoff of almost two years. Neither man is all that durable any more meaning a fight going the distance isn’t likely, but I think Brown has more in the tank and the layoff will do him well. Brown by TKO is my pick.
The Prelims: UFC Fight Pass card
Headlining the UFC Fight Pass portion of the card is a 145lbs clash between Daniel Teymur and Chase Hooper. Hooper – just 18 years old – impressed on Dana White’s Contender Series, but he’s still very raw and I think he might be in over his head with Teymur, who while limited, is a dangerous striker and a wily veteran. Teymur via decision is my pick – but after some early scares.
At Flyweight, grapplers Brandon Moreno and Kai Kara-France go to war. Kara-France has done well in the UFC thus far and is currently 3-0 in the promotion, but he’s also very open defensively, and Moreno should be able to make the most of that with his superior experience. I’m going with Moreno via submission.
At Flyweight, former title challenger Jessica Eye faces Viviane Araujo. This is a tricky one to pick as Araujo has looked fantastic thus far in the UFC, taking out Talita Bernardo via KO and outpointing Alexis Davis, but assuming Eye hasn’t suffered any long term damage from her KO at the hands of Valentina Shevchenko, I’d say this is a winnable fight for her if she can mix up her boxing and wrestling nicely. Eye by decision is my pick.
Finally, the night’s opener sees Middleweights Punahele Soriano and Oskar Piechota face off. A talented fighter in all areas, Poland’s Piechota has lost his last two fights, but simply fell victim to a world-class grappler in Rodolfo Vieira and a very gritty veteran in Gerald Meerschaert. Soriano – like many graduates of DWCS – looks talented but very raw, and so I’m going with Piechota here, as he’s the more proven fighter. Piechota via submission is my pick.
