UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes - Predictions and Picks

#2 Valentina Shevchenko vs. Katlyn Chookagian

Valentina Shevchenko looks like a dominant champion at 125lbs

When Valentina Shevchenko won the UFC Flyweight title by beating former strawweight champ Joanna Jedrzejczyk back in December 2017, it seemed clear that she’d probably go onto a dominant title reign. That’s definitely been the case – ‘The Bullet’ has since defended against Jessica Eye and Liz Carmouche, and in all honesty, the only question I have here is whether she picks challenger Chookagian apart over five rounds or actually takes her out violently.

I hate to count out any fighter, but there’s literally nothing to suggest Chookagian could be the one to upset Shevchenko right now. ‘Blonde Fighter’ is 4-1 at 125lbs right now, but she’s never finished a foe inside the UFC – and has never come close, really – and suffered a decision loss to Eye back in 2018, too.

Primarily a striker, Chookagian looks to use her long reach and length to pick her opponents apart, but despite the fact that she stands 4” taller than Shevchenko and does have a 2.5” reach advantage, it’s just hard to see her out-kickboxing an opponent who comfortably picked apart a striker as good as Holly Holm when they faced off.

Shevchenko essentially has no weaknesses – unless you’re willing to count the fact that, like Stephen Thompson, for instance, she can be lulled into a low-output fight that can be confusing for judges to call. Outside of that though, she’s technically brilliant on her feet, has a powerful grappling game, and her cardio is second-to-none.

Whether she can finish Chookagian – who almost certainly won’t open up too aggressively when faced with such a deadly opponent – is another question, but it’d be nice if she could, as her win over Carmouche was one of the worst title fights in UFC history.

I’m leaning towards the answer being no; ‘The Bullet’ is a great fighter, but she’s also a safety-first type who will be more than happy to do just enough to edge out a clear-cut decision win. So I’m going for just that – Shevchenko will simply pick Chookagian apart for five rounds in what could be a slower-paced fight.

The Pick: Shevchenko via unanimous decision