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After months of hype, the UFC is finally heading to ‘Fight Island’ for the first time this weekend. The island in question is Abu Dhabi’s Yas Island, and the first show there looks like a blockbuster – UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal.
With three title fights on tap – as well as a rematch of one of last year’s title fights – this is one of the most loaded cards in UFC history.
With just six days remaining before it goes down, it’s time to simply hope that it holds together – especially after the UFC has already had to rescue the main event.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal.
#1 UFC World Welterweight Title: Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal
It’s insane how quickly things can change in the world of the UFC. Just three days ago, Usman was all set to defend his UFC Welterweight title at this show against Gilbert Burns. Masvidal, meanwhile, was in the midst of a very public spat with the promotion over his paycheque.
That all changed last week. On Friday we found out that Burns had tested positive for COVID-19 and was off the card. By Saturday, it appeared that the show would go ahead with Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway as its new main event. And then on Sunday, it was announced that the UFC had come to terms with Masvidal to take the fight, contingent on ‘Gamebred’ testing negative for COVID-19.
Well, we now know that Masvidal has passed that test, and so the fight, incredibly, is on. How much the UFC have had to pony up to get him to take the fight is unknown. And with no official athletic commission overseeing the event, we may never know.
What we do know is that ‘Gamebred’ is coming off one of the best calendar years in UFC history. 2019 saw Masvidal take out Darren Till before breaking the record for the UFC’s fastest knockout by destroying Ben Askren in just five seconds. And finally, he defeated Nate Diaz to become the UFC’s first ‘BMF’ champion in November.
Right now, there’s arguably no hotter fighter in the UFC than the American. But can he beat Usman to become the Welterweight champion?
In terms of his strengths, Masvidal is perhaps the best pure boxer in the UFC. His jab is one of the best in MMA and he uses it to set up his combinations, going to the body and head with equal measure. He’s capable of fighting well coming forward as well as on the counter, and most recently he’s shown devastating abilities in the clinch too.
‘Gamebred’ is also remarkably tough, with one of the best chins in the entire sport. In a 48-fight career, he’s been stopped just once – and that was a questionable stoppage back in 2008. This all begs the question – if he’s so good, then why does he have 13 career losses?
Well, earlier in his career, Masvidal had a horrible tendency to simply throw fights away due to apparent overconfidence. That’s not to say he’d come into fights looking too cocky. It was more a case that he’d begin to cruise in fights that he was arguably winning, allowing an opponent to take over and edge him on the scorecards.
That’s how he lost to Lorenz Larkin, Al Iaquinta, and arguably Benson Henderson and Gilbert Melendez too.
That issue seems to have been solved, for now, making ‘Gamebred’ a far more dangerous proposition. However, he did lose twice in 2017. One of those losses came to Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson – a horrible match for any striking-based fighter. And the other was to Demian Maia, who was able to out-grapple Masvidal.
Essentially then, he’s now a fighter with very few weaknesses and a lot of dangerous strengths. Unfortunately, he’s faced with perhaps the most dominant Welterweight in MMA since Georges St-Pierre was in his prime a decade ago.
There are a lot of parallels between GSP and Usman, in fact. It’s easy to forget now, but GSP’s initial success wasn’t made possible by his technical striking or even his wrestling – it stemmed more from his brute strength.
St-Pierre was always recognized as arguably the best wrestler in MMA, despite not having an amateur background like some of his opponents. However, that wrestling largely stemmed from a mix of his athleticism, power, and strength rather than pure skill.
Usman is similar. An NCAA Division II national champion, on paper he should’ve been at a disadvantage against Tyron Woodley – an accomplished NCAA Division I All-American. And yet Usman out-grappled him with ease.
Simply put, there’s nobody in the sport right now with the same mix of strength, athleticism, cardio, and pressuring ability that ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ possesses.
Other wrestlers can be resisted, but not Usman. Every time he’s got hold of his opponent in the UFC, they’ve been unable to stop him from ragdolling them. Even powerful fighters like Woodley and Emil Weber Meek have been powerless against his bullying style.
Worryingly for the rest of the division, Usman is not just a wrestler anymore. A longer Welterweight who possesses a 76” reach, ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ is now a dangerous striker, too.
Is he as technical a boxer as Masvidal? Well, no. He took plenty of shots from Colby Covington in their fight, but equally, he was able to punish ‘Chaos’ with a stiff jab and in particular, some hard body shots.
However, it’s worth noting that Usman was largely forced to strike with Covington, who possessed similar levels of wrestling skill. Against Masvidal, the threat of the takedown will almost certainly be more of a factor – meaning Usman can probably afford to strike a little more freely.
Perhaps the closest parallel to be made for this fight is Usman’s 2018 win over Rafael Dos Anjos. Like Masvidal, Dos Anjos is a very accomplished striker, albeit not quite as good a boxer. And Usman – using the threat of his grappling – simply walked him down throughout the fight.
He was not only able to ragdoll him from the clinch, but he was also able to unload on him with his own combinations.
For me then, unless Masvidal can take out Usman very early in the fight, I don’t see him being able to succeed here. Few fighters can put the pressure on quite like ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’. And while Masvidal is a solid grappler – he submitted Michael Chiesa in 2013 – it’s doubtful that he’ll be able to pull out something similar against Usman.
Can Usman finish ‘Gamebred’? It’s doubtful that he’ll be able to knock him out, but over five rounds, there’s every chance that he can wear him down enough for a submission or a TKO.
Masvidal is on the run of his life and he’s certainly earned this opportunity, but I just don’t see anyone beating Usman right now.
The Pick: Usman via unanimous decision
#2 UFC World Featherweight Title: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway
Around a year ago – after his dominant win over Frankie Edgar – the UFC were quick to proclaim Max Holloway as the greatest Featherweight of all time. The Edgar fight was his third UFC title defense and was his 14th win in a row at 145lbs.
His defense against Australian Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 245 seemed almost academic. And then the unthinkable happened. ‘Blessed’ found himself outpointed in a fight that was almost a pure kickboxing match. And suddenly, we had a new UFC Featherweight Champion. If nothing else, it proved the old adage that it’s harder to retain a title than it is to win it to be true.
Despite a number of other deserving contenders out there – namely Zabit Magomedsharipov and Chan Sung Jung – the UFC were always likely to book an immediate rematch. Thanks to COVID-19, it’s taken a little longer than expected, but here we are.
Essentially, the easiest thing to do to break down this fight is to look at how Volkanovski won the first time, and ask whether Holloway can make the correct adjustments.
‘Alexander the Great’ basically surprised Holloway at UFC 245 with two things – his speed, and his leg kicks. The early rounds saw the Aussie avoid Holloway’s combinations – something that his previous opponents had never really been able to do. And rather than attempt to crack his chin, Volkanovski instead focused on those leg kicks.
That meant that by the time he did slow down slightly, ‘Blessed’ simply didn’t have the movement to close the angles down on the Aussie in order to really unleash his combinations. Sure, Holloway took over in the fifth round, but by that point, it was far too late.
Max Holloway will likely be far better prepared for the leg kicks and for Alexander Volkanovski’s speed in this rematch. But given his style is based all around pressure, stalking forward, and an ability to corral an opponent with his strikes, can he avoid that offense?
It’s very debatable. Holloway’s success in the UFC has traditionally come from his length and reach. At 5’11” he’s a taller Featherweight and while his 69” reach isn’t freakish, combined with his height it’s allowed him to use a snake-like jab to abuse the likes of Edgar and Brian Ortega.
However, Volkanovski will enjoy a reach advantage over him even if he’s the shorter man. He also appeared to be quicker than ‘Blessed’ in their first fight, and even if he can’t land his leg kicks, he’s very tricky to actually hit.
In my preview for their first fight, I felt like Volkanovski would need to get into Holloway’s face and pressure him in order to win. And while that wasn’t the case in the end, it’s still an option for him, as he’s probably a stronger clinch fighter than ‘Blessed’.
That of course makes things even trickier for Holloway. Throw in the fact that Holloway has taken a simply terrible amount of cumulative damage over the last few years – and has even suffered from post-concussion type symptoms – and it becomes harder to trust in his skills.
If Max Holloway can overcome Alexander Volkanovski in this one then he’d have a very fair claim to being the greatest of all time at this weight. Overall though, I feel like this is a bad match for him, as it’s going to be tricky for him to make the right adjustments without falling into another trap.
The Pick: Volkanovski via unanimous decision
#3 UFC World Bantamweight Title: Jose Aldo vs. Petr Yan
It’s pretty crazy to think that the last time we saw a UFC Bantamweight title fight was only two months ago. That fight saw champ Henry Cejudo defend successfully against legendary former champ Dominick Cruz – only to retire after the fight.
The UFC usually takes a longer period to sort out a vacant title, but in this case, they haven’t messed around. Of course, that hasn’t stopped the detractors from complaining greatly. In this instance, those complaints stem from the involvement of Aldo.
The legendary former UFC Featherweight kingpin has only ever fought once at 135lbs. And that fight saw him suffer a decision loss to Marlon Moraes at UFC 245. However, while it’s true that no fighter should earn a title shot coming off a loss (unless it’s an immediate rematch), the case of ‘Scarface’ is a little different.
Many people – myself included – wrote off Aldo’s chances against Moraes. At 33 years old it felt like he was probably past his prime, and he’d struggled to make 145lbs at times, let alone 135lbs. And more to the point, he was faced with a horribly dangerous foe.
And yet Aldo hit the 135lbs mark with ease, looking trimmed down and extremely healthy. And while Moraes hurt him early in the fight, Aldo came storming back in the later rounds. To many observers, including myself, he actually did enough to win the fight.
Aldo looked as quick as he’d ever done at 145lbs. And his combinations looked amazing at times, as he ripped Moraes with punches to the body and head while eating up plenty of heavy shots in return. Most impressive was the fact that he didn’t slow down at all, and kept the pressure on Moraes throughout the fight.
All that bodes well for his chances here, even if there’s an argument that he shouldn’t be receiving a title shot. Win, and he'll become the UFC's newest dual-weight champion. He'd also have an argument for being one of the greatest UFC fighters of all time.
However, there’s one big problem. He’s faced with a genuinely monstrous opponent in the form of Yan.
‘No Mercy’ is 14-1 overall and is unbeaten in the UFC at 6-0. The Russian has faced a number of dangerous opponents, including Jimmie Rivera, John Dodson, and Urijah Faber – but none have come close to solving the puzzle.
What makes Yan so dangerous is primarily his footwork. He’s an excellent striker overall, capable of throwing ultra-fast combinations with extreme power, but it’s how he sets those strikes up that sets him apart. His footwork allows him to corral his opponent towards the fence, where he can then open up with serious violence.
The Russian isn’t invulnerable. Both Dodson and Rivera hurt him with their own strikes, with Rivera actually out-striking him for periods and Dodson knocking him down. But on both occasions, Yan’s chin held up and his incredible power pulled him through.
The question for me then is simple. Can Aldo avoid being forced backwards into the fence by Yan’s footwork and pressure? If he can do that, then he’s definitely in with a chance here. The Brazilian is a much more effective kickboxer overall than both Dodson or Rivera and has far more experience than the Russian overall.
However, it’s also worth noting that when he fought Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 237 in 2019, Aldo did have a lot of trouble when the Aussie was able to back him up and corral him. Is Yan as skilled a striker as Volkanovski? He isn’t as proven, but the early evidence would suggest that that is the case.
For me, this should come down to who can control the cage in the early rounds. If Yan can establish a lead by forcing Aldo backwards, then the likelihood is that he’ll eventually break the older man down. But if Aldo can avoid being corralled, can work the Russian over with leg kicks, and chain his combos together, then who knows?
Overall it’s a very tricky fight to pick, but I’m going with Yan. As the younger man, he’s more likely to weather the storm that Aldo can bring, while I suspect the Brazilian may end up wilting under his power.
The Pick: Yan via third-round TKO
#4 UFC Strawweight Division: Rose Namajunas vs. Jessica Andrade
This fight is probably the one that sums up how loaded this card is. Not only was it pegged as the original co-main event of UFC 249, but it was also a UFC title fight just over a year ago. Back then, Namajunas was the defending UFC Strawweight champ, while Andrade was the bulldozer of a challenger.
That fight of course ended in dramatic fashion. After piecing Andrade up with her striking in the first round, Namajunas made a fatal error in the second by attempting to lace up a kimura from the clinch. Andrade responded by slamming her directly onto her head, knocking her out to take away the crown.
‘Thug Rose’ hasn’t fought since, while Andrade would lose her title in her first defense, going down at the hands of Weili Zhang in under a minute. The winner here will move right back into title contention, but who will it be?
Personally, my money is on Namajunas. I don’t like to call any win a fluke per se, but there was definitely something fortunate about Andrade’s win in the initial fight. After all, ‘Thug Rose’ was destroying her in the first round.
A stinging jab and some excellent footwork were enough to put a stop to Andrade’s berserker style. By the end of the round, not only was ‘Bate Estaca’ bleeding badly, but she was also close to being stopped after going down off a knee strike.
The issue for Rose – as I mentioned in my previous breakdown – is largely a mental one. She hasn’t fought since her loss to Andrade and has had question marks hanging over her future for a while. At her best, she’s remarkably skilled in all areas – capable of submitting opponents but also outpointing a striker as skilled as Joanna Jedrzejczyk.
But any fighter who’s mentioned retiring from the UFC has to be questioned to some extent. Is Rose’s heart truly in the game? Only she knows the truth. If she’s definitely in this for the long haul, then I see no reason why she can’t piece Andrade up for a late TKO. But if she’s unsure of herself, then ‘Bate Estaca’ could definitely take her out in a rush.
The Pick: Namajunas via second-round TKO
#5 UFC Flyweight Division: Paige VanZant vs. Amanda Ribas
It’s been a long time since we’ve seen VanZant in action and interestingly, it could be the last time under the UFC banner, too. ’12 Gauge’ last fought in January 2019, defeating Rachael Ostovich by armbar. Since then she’s been on the shelf rehabbing an arm injury, and there are a ton of questions around her future.
This fight is the final one on her UFC contract, and she’s already stated that she wants to test her value on the free market. That suggests that the UFC won’t offer her the money she’s after – and to be frank, it’s hard to blame them.
Sure, VanZant is hugely marketable. She’s appeared on Dancing with the Stars, starred in Sports Illustrated’s famous swimsuit edition, and has a ton of Instagram followers. But in terms of her fight skills, she’s arguably been a bust.
VanZant entered into the UFC back in 2014 and initially went 3-0 over a trio of tough veterans. Fighting a lot like early Diego Sanchez, ’12 Gauge’ used her pace, pressure, and grappling to break her foes down. A loss to Rose Namajunas in late 2015 showed she had a lot to learn, but since then, it could be argued that she’s regressed.
Sure, her striking has improved somewhat, as we saw when she knocked out Bec Rawlings with a jumping switch kick. But her grappling doesn’t appear to be as strong as it once was, and while she did submit Ostovich in her last outing, it was largely set up by a mistake on Ostovich’s part.
More worryingly for her, this fight looks like an extremely tough one. Ribas is a highly technical, patient striker with a ramrod jab and some extremely dangerous kicks.
She first came to the fore by clearly outpointing famed grappler Mackenzie Dern, easily out-striking her over three rounds. And more recently, she overcame tricky veteran Randa Markos, beating her essentially in every possible area.
How well Ribas’ skills will translate to 125lbs is a question mark, admittedly, but it’s not like she’s faced with a former Bantamweight here. VanZant never missed the 115lbs mark and while being at 125lbs should give her more energy, she certainly isn’t likely to hold a big strength advantage.
Add in the fact that traditionally, the UFC simply doesn’t favor fighters who express an interest in testing the market, and I believe VanZant is in trouble here. The UFC likely won’t want her leaving the promotion on the back of a big win, and so Ribas is the perfect opponent. She’s unheralded, and yet still possesses more than enough skill to pick up a win.
VanZant is tough and may last the distance, but I don’t see this one ending well for her at all.
The Pick: Ribas via unanimous decision
#6 UFC 251 Prelims: ESPN card
It would appear that all of UFC 251’s prelims are being shown on both ESPN and the ESPN+ streaming service. And as you’d imagine from a stacked card, they’re all pretty excellent.
Heading the portion is a Light-Heavyweight clash between Volkan Oezdemir and newcomer Jiri Prochazka. A native of the Czech Republic, Prochazka certainly isn’t short on experience. He’s 26-3 overall and is coming off wins in Japan’s Rizin promotion over CB Dollaway, Fabio Maldonado, and ‘King Mo’ Lawal.
This should be a battle of strikers. Prochazka has extremely heavy hands and of his 26 wins, 23 have come by KO or TKO. However, Oezdemir is incredibly tough, has heavy strikes himself, and of course, has much more UFC experience. If he can take Prochazka into the deeper waters of this fight, he could drown the newcomer. My pick is Oezdemir, either by decision or a latter-round TKO.
We could be in for a treat at Welterweight, as flashy strikers collide in a fascinating match. Brazil’s Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos – a rare practitioner of Capoeira – takes on Dagestan’s ‘King of Kung Fu’, Muslim Salikhov. However, I actually don’t suspect we’ll see a wild striking battle here.
In his past fights with fellow dangerous strikers, Zaleski has instead unleashed his ground game. A Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, he has three submission wins on his ledger and choked Curtis Millender out in the UFC in 2019. Salikhov, meanwhile, appeared to struggle with the ground game of Alex Garcia in their fight, succumbing to a choke in the second round. My pick then is Zaleski via submission.
At Featherweight, wild Finnish brawler Makwan Amirkhani returns to take on Scotland’s Danny Henry. A tough grappler, Henry does have two UFC wins to his name, but I think he’s a little overmatched here.
Amirkhani is incredibly aggressive in all areas and has finishing skills both standing and on the ground. In fact, he’s probably a superior grappler to the Scot. I feel like the two will hit the ground at some point – and Amirkhani will come out on top via tap-out.
In the Lightweight division, longtime veteran Leonardo Santos is back for the first time since June 2019. He takes on unbeaten newcomer Roman Bogatov. This should depend on how much Santos has left in the tank. At 40 years old he’s surely past his athletic prime, and yet he’s unbeaten in the UFC at 6-0-1 and has even knocked out Kevin Lee.
This also appears to be a favorable fight for him as Bogatov primarily relies on his grappling. And while Santos has two TKO’s to his name in the UFC, he’s more well-known as a legitimate world-class grappler. With that in mind, Santos via TKO is my pick.
#7: UFC 251 Early Prelims: ESPN card
A further four prelim fights this weekend will also be shown on ESPN, ESPN+, and UFC Fight Pass.
At Flyweight, Raulian Paiva faces newcomer Zhalgas Zhumagulov. Paiva is coming off his first UFC win – a knockout of Mark De La Rosa – but prior to that he’d dropped his first two fights in the promotion. Zhumagulov meanwhile is 13-3, and most recently defeated former title challenger Ali Bagautinov.
This one is a tough fight to pick. Kazakhstan’s Zhumagulov is a very unknown quantity, but has a strong record, while Paiva has somewhat flattered to deceive. I’ll take the newcomer via decision, but it could go either way.
At Bantamweight, Karol Rosa squares off with Vanessa Melo. Rosa picked up her UFC debut win last August, while we last saw Melo in November, being out-pointed by Tracy Cortez. In this battle of Brazilians, I’m favoring Rosa. Melo hasn’t really shown much outside of toughness in her UFC outings thus far, and Rosa is also the more accomplished fighter overall. The pick, therefore, is Rosa via decision.
In the men’s Bantamweight division, the UK’s Davey Grant faces Hawaii’s Martin Day. Grant hasn’t fared well in the UFC thus far, going 2-3, but he’s a tricky veteran with skills in all areas. Day meanwhile is a bit of an unknown quantity, with just a single UFC fight – back in 2018 – to his name. Grant definitely isn’t unbeatable, but I like his UFC experience to pull him through to a decision win here.
Finally at Heavyweight, Marcin Tybura faces late replacement and newcomer Maxim Grishin. A longtime veteran of both the PFL and M-1 Global promotions, Grishin is 30-7 overall. In his most recent fights, he’s gone 7-0-2, with his only recent loss coming in 2016 to top prospect Magomed Ankalaev.
Tybura once looked like a genuine prospect to watch. His win over Andrei Arlovski threw him into title contention, but losses to the likes of Shamil Abdurakhimov and Augusto Sakai have shunted him way down the ladder. With a full camp, I’d be tempted to favor Grishin here, but who knows what kind of shape he’ll come in at? With that in mind, I’ll take ‘Tybur’ via TKO.
