UFC 316: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley 2 prediction, stats and fight breakdown

The UFC is set to head to Newark, New Jersey next weekend for a major pay-per-view event. This one has two title bouts at the top of the card.

The headline bout will see reigning bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili defend against the man who he dethroned back at UFC 306, Sean O'Malley.

Since then, Dvalishvili has beaten Umar Nurmagomedov to make his first title defense, while O'Malley has not fought since their original fight back in September 2024.

So will 'The Machine' repeat the feat here at UFC 316, or will 'Sugar' make the correct adjustments to win his title back?

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UFC 316: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley stats

Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O'Malley have very comparable MMA records overall. Dvalishvili boasts a ledger of 19-4, while O'Malley's record stands at 18-2.

Moreover, they also have a similar amount of experience in the UFC, too. Both men debuted in the octagon in December 2017, with O'Malley fighting literally eight days before Dvalishvili.

'The Machine' has 14 bouts in the UFC compared to 13 for 'Suga', but of course, Dvalishvili is currently riding a winning streak of 12 fights dating back to 2018.

It's also worth noting that Dvalishvili has fought far tougher opponents than O'Malley over the years. He holds wins over seven former UFC champions or title challengers, including Jose Aldo, Henry Cejudo and Petr Yan.

O'Malley, meanwhile, has only fought four opponents on that level, one being Dvalishvili himself.

Physically, neither man has ever had an issue hitting the 135-pound bantamweight limit, but it's fair to say that O'Malley will enjoy a sizeable height and reach advantage. He stands at 5-foot-11 and boasts a 72-inch reach compared to 5-foot-6 and 68-inch for 'The Machine'.

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UFC 316: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley breakdown and prediction

Given that this is a rematch of a previous fight, it's well worth looking back at exactly what happened in that fight before picking a winner.

The story of the bout between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O'Malley at UFC 306 perhaps wasn't as clear-cut as many fans remember.

It's true that Dvalishvili did find it relatively easy to take 'Sugar' down. He landed a total of six takedowns throughout the fight, and enjoyed ten solid minutes of control overall. The only round that saw him fail to land a takedown was the third.

However, O'Malley didn't make things easy for 'The Machine' at times. While he only landed 49 significant strikes - less than half the total landed by Dvalishvili - he did escape to his feet on multiple occasions and also threatened with a first round guillotine choke.

In the end, though, he just couldn't find a way to prevent Dvalishvili from taking him down, and by the time 'The Machine' appeared to be tiring in the fifth, it was too late.

Dvalishvili likely won't attempt to change anything up here. He approaches all of his fights in the same way, essentially, always looking to force his foes onto their back foot to bully them with takedowns and ground-and-pound.

It's an approach that, recently at least, nobody has been able to solve.

O'Malley does have some advantages, though. He's far taller and longer, and is excellent at sniping his foes from distance. Moreover, he's also very adept at cutting angles to catch his opponents with clean shots that often take them by surprise.

It was in this way that he knocked out Eddie Wineland and Thomas Almeida, and it was with this approach that he landed his best strikes against both Petr Yan and Marlon Vera.

However, if he can't stop Dvalishvili from marching forward and taking him down, then landing his strikes becomes massively tricky. Not only will he struggle for time to set his better shots up, but the fear of the takedown also makes it more difficult.

So does this make this fight impossible for 'Suga'? Not exactly. After all, he did beat Aljamain Sterling, a training partner of Dvalishvili's with a similar style.

How did O'Malley do that? His tactic, essentially, was to make the fight as dull as possible.

Very little happened in the first round, with 'Suga' clearly being the one on the defensive. He stuck to the outside, kept circling and feinting, and wasn't suckered into anything by 'The Funk Master'.

That caused mild boos from the crowd, something that clearly affected Sterling, who then made the error of rushing in recklessly early in the second round. Moments later, he was unconscious and O'Malley had won.

Will it be as easy to sucker Dvalishvili in like this, though? It's doubtful, as Sterling was probably a bit spooked by the boos, having been criticised by fans for his approach before.

With that said, if 'Sugar' can frustrate 'The Machine' into rushing in without fully considering what he's doing, it's not impossible for him to win, particularly if the Georgian tires again.

Unfortunately, when Dvalishvili's chin has been cracked in the past, it's also proven to be granite-level, as he recovered from some insane punishment to beat Marlon Moraes in 2021.

With that considered, then, it's just difficult to imagine O'Malley changing enough to come out on top here.

Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili wins via decision

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UFC 316: Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison breakdown and prediction

UFC 316's co-headliner will see the bantamweight title on the line, as Julianna Pena defends against top contender Kayla Harrison.

This will be the first defense for Pena during her second reign as champion. Last time, 'The Venezuelan Vixen' lost the title directly back to Amanda Nunes. So will this time around prove to be any different?

On paper, this looks like a tough fight for her. Harrison - a two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo - is probably the best athlete ever seen in the UFC's 135 pound division. She's remarkably explosive, physically powerful, and destroyed Holly Holm in her UFC debut last year.

Pena is no stranger to upsetting the odds. She did defeat Nunes, at the peak of her powers, in 2021.

However, she's a willing but not naturally explosive striker who does her best work from top position, and it's just hard to see her getting Harrison on the ground.

Realistically, then, the only question around Harrison is whether she can safely make 135 pounds. Obviously she did in her first two trips to the octagon, but for a fighter who once competed at 155 pounds, it's always risky.

Based on her win over Holm, though, it's simply hard to see her failing to beat Pena, who, for all her talents, is an inferior athlete.

Prediction: Kayla Harrison wins via second round submission

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UFC 316: Undercard Predictions

Picks in bold

Middleweight bout: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer

Bantamweight bout: Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix

Welterweight bout: Kevin Holland vs. Vicente Luque

Flyweight bout: Bruno Gustavo da Silva vs. Joshua Van

Light-heavyweight bout: Azamat Murzakanov vs. Brendson Ribeiro

Heavyweight bout: Sergei Spivac vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Welterweight bout: Khaos Williams vs. Uros Medic

Flyweight bout: Ariane Lipski vs. Wang Cong

Featherweight bout: Jeka Saragih vs. Joo Sang Soo

Lightweight bout: Quillan Salkilld vs. Yanal Ashmouz