UFC Fight Island 6: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie - Predictions and Picks

#3 UFC Flyweight Division: Katlyn Chookagian vs. Jessica Andrade

Can Katlyn Chookagian pick apart former UFC champ Jessica Andrade?

Initially, former UFC Strawweight champ Jessica Andrade was booked against former UFC Flyweight title challenger Jessica Eye on this show in her first test at 125lbs. However, with Eye out due to an injury, Bate Estaca is now set to face another former UFC title contender in the form of Chookagian. Does this make it a tougher fight for her? Perhaps.

Andrade, ever since her UFC debut way back in 2013, has essentially fought like a female version of prime Wanderlei Silva. Essentially, the Brazilian tends to wade forward, winging power hooks at her foe with the premise being that while her chin will usually hold up to whatever they throw back, their chin won’t.

For the most part, that gameplan has worked for Bate Estaca, at least since she dropped down to 115lbs back in 2016. Andrade was jabbed to death by Joanna Jedrzejczyk in their fight, but then parlayed that punching power to UFC wins over Claudia Gadelha, Tecia Torres, and Karolina Kowalkiewicz.

Interestingly, it was painfully clear that Andrade was actually overmatched from a technical standpoint in two of those fights. Both Torres and Gadelha were able to land clean combinations, but simply wilted under Andrade’s power and ended up losing clear-cut decisions.

Bate Estaca was obviously able to win the UFC Strawweight title by slamming Rose Namajunas onto her head, but the win certainly had somewhat of a fluke about it. Thug Rose had been piecing her up prior to the slam, which was enabled by a mistake from the champion.

However, Andrade’s aura of invincibility was very much shattered in her first UFC title defense. She was shellacked by Weili Zhang, essentially finding herself outgunned despite attempting her usual gameplan. Magnum knocked her out in just under a minute, taking her title away, and most recently, we saw her largely picked apart by Namajunas in a rematch.

The big question here is whether Andrade’s move up to 125lbs can re-energize her career, or whether it’s a move too far for her. It’s hard to imagine her changing her style up at this stage. She’s fought in the UFC on 17 occasions over the past seven years and has always used that berserker gameplan, so this match should be determined by how that style meshes with Chookagian’s.

And for me, it doesn’t mesh well. Chookagian isn’t the perfect fighter – she hasn’t finished a single opponent in the UFC despite going 7-2 overall. But Blonde Fighter does what she does very well. Essentially, she’s a point-fighter, using her sizeable range and height to pick her opponents off from the outside.

As we saw in her most recent UFC outing against Antonina Shevchenko, Chookagian is also a considerable grappler. She wasted no time in taking Shevchenko down and thoroughly whitewashed her on the mat – basically doing everything but pick up a finish.

Given the only opponent to stop her was the current UFC Flyweight champ Valentina Shevchenko then, it’s hard to imagine Andrade simply destroying Chookagian with her usual berserker rush. And if she can’t do that, then how can she win? She’s simply not big and strong enough to outpower ‘Blonde Fighter,’ and there’s every chance that Chookagian simply jabs her to death as Namajunas and Jedrzejczyk did.

Overall, I can’t see Chookagian picking up her first UFC finish here, but I’m betting that she’ll pick up an impressive win over a former UFC champion in the way of a lopsided decision.

The Pick: Chookagian via unanimous decision