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This weekend sees the UFC present its second Fight Night show on the ESPN+ streaming service, as we’ve got a live card from Fortaleza, Brazil, main evented by a likely UFC Bantamweight title eliminator between Marlon Moraes and Raphael Assuncao.
For a Brazil-based Fight Night show the card is pretty loaded, too, with former UFC Featherweight champion Jose Aldo facing Renato Moicano in the semi-main event and the likes of Charles Oliveira, Demian Maia and Thiago Alves also in action.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 144: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2.
#1 Raphael Assuncao vs. Marlon Moraes
If there’s any justice in the world, the winner of this fight should be next in line for a shot at UFC Bantamweight champion TJ Dillashaw. The UFC may decide differently though given Dillashaw’s recent loss to Henry Cejudo – and might book Cejudo vs. Dillashaw 2 at 135lbs – one can hope for some logical thought instead.
Assuncao and Moraes are clearly on the hottest runs in the division; Assuncao is 11-1 in the division with his sole loss coming to Dillashaw, and of course, he defeated TJ in their first fight back in 2013, while Moraes is 3-1 in the UFC with his only loss being a controversial decision to....you guessed it, Assuncao, back in Moraes’ debut in June 2017.
The UFC will probably be hoping Moraes wins this one. Assuncao is clearly an excellent fighter, but he isn’t the most exciting to watch inside the Octagon and of his 11 Bantamweight victories, 8 of them have come by decision. Moraes, on the other hand, is a literal buzzsaw inside the cage, with his knockout wins over Jimmie Rivera and Aljamain Sterling both being worthy of anyone’s highlight reel.
In terms of their styles, you’d have to say Assuncao is the more well-rounded fighter. He tends to employ a boxing-heavy game with additional leg kicks to attack his opponent, but he’s also the owner of a pretty great grappling game – a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Assuncao came to the WEC as a noted submission artist and has developed his striking over the following years. Moraes meanwhile is almost a pure striker, relying heavily on a Muay Thai-styled attack that utilizes brutal leg kicks, knees and counter-punches. He’s also got a BJJ black belt, but he rarely bothers to use it.
So can the former WSOF champion pull off a big victory? Judging by the first fight between the two, there’s nothing to suggest he can’t. The UFC 212 preliminary headliner was a very close fight that took place almost exclusively on the feet, and while Assuncao started off better, once Moraes found his range in the second round he appeared to have the advantage in the second and third rounds. Two of the three judges might’ve gone for Assuncao, but most of the MMA media – myself included – scored the fight 29-28 for Moraes.
Given the events of that first fight, it’s hard to envision anything hugely different going down this time. I could talk about Assuncao’s excellent ground game, but it’s not like his takedowns have improved hugely since that first fight and he couldn’t get Moraes off his feet then. For me, two x-factors have to be considered and they both fall in Moraes’ favour.
Firstly, the first fight between the two was Assuncao’s 11th in the UFC, while for Moraes, it represented his Octagon debut. That could well account for Moraes’ surprisingly slow opening round – he might’ve been a former WSOF champion, but ‘Octagon Shock’ has been known to affect even the most experienced debutant.
And secondly, this fight will be fought over 5 rounds, and given the close nature of the first fight, it’s easy to see this one going the distance. With that in mind, while Assuncao has gone the distance plenty of times in his career, he’s never gone 25 minutes – and more to the point, this is the first time he’s ever trained for such a fight. Moraes meanwhile has not only appeared in a UFC 5-rounder – not that it went that far – but he’s gone 25 minutes twice before and appeared to be the fresher man at the end of their first encounter.
I don’t think Moraes can finish Assuncao and I suspect that’ll likely be the reason that the UFC deny him a title shot – this may, in fact, be a fight with a lot of slow spots, judging on their first fight – but I do think he’s the better striker overall and I think he’ll pick Assuncao apart for the majority of this outing, leading to a decision win.
The Pick: Moraes via unanimous decision
#2 Jose Aldo vs. Renato Moicano
2018 taught the MMA world plenty of things, but one of its greatest lessons was that the demise of Jose Aldo was being greatly overstated. Many fans were writing the Brazilian legend off after his back-to-back losses against new Featherweight kingpin Max Holloway in 2017, but while Aldo was certainly outclassed by the Hawaiian, he looked back to his scintillating best against Jeremy Stephens in July, taking ‘Lil Heathen’ out in the first round.
2018 was also a fantastic year for Moicano, who proved himself as a real top-level 145lber with wins over Calvin Kattar and Cub Swanson. Due to his low-key personality, Moicano was flying under the radar with a lot of fans but had always been on the cusp of the top – he beat Stephens in 2017, for instance – and at 5-1 in the UFC with his only loss coming to Brian Ortega, he’s clearly a man not to be messed with.
Is he truly ready for the step up that Aldo represents, though? In terms of earning this fight, then sure. He’s definitely worthy of a step up and realistically, the UFC could easily have put him into a title fight based on his big win over Swanson and the fact that he’s only ever lost to Ortega. With a more sellable personality, that may well have been the case in fact. But Moicano can’t really talk trash and so here we are.
I’d say this is a horrendously difficult fight for Moicano, simply because everything he does, Aldo appears to do better – and of course, he’s been doing it better for a very long time. That leg kick-heavy attack that Moicano used to beat Stephens and Kattar? That’s basically Aldo’s bread-and-butter, and the only two men to ever best ‘Scarface’ on the feet have been Conor McGregor, who took him out with one punch, and the afore-mentioned Holloway, who is basically an unstoppable monster right now.
A very legitimate Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, some could argue that Moicano has an advantage on the ground, as while Aldo is a black belt himself, he’s never really shown off his ground game all that much, and didn’t look great from the bottom position in his 2011 fight with Mark Hominick. But why am I referencing a 2011 fight? Well, because Aldo rarely gets taken down. Tremendous wrestlers like Chad Mendes, Frankie Edgar and Ricardo Lamas all struggled to get him off his feet, and found it even harder to keep him down. So I just can’t see Moicano managing to get Aldo down and submit him.
For me, the only chance Moicano has here is if Father Time has suddenly caught up to Aldo and he’s degenerated a lot since the Stephens win in July. If that’s the case and the former champion looks slow or compromised, then Moicano might have a chance of outstriking him. I can’t see that happening, though – Aldo looked as dangerous as he ever has against Stephens and I’m now of the mind that his losses to Holloway came purely because Max is an incredible talent. I’m taking Aldo to pretty comfortably outstrike Moicano here, showing him another level that he’s not quite on just yet.
The Pick: Aldo via unanimous decision
#3 Demian Maia vs. Lyman Good
This one should be a classic striker vs. grappler match, as despite all of his improvements standing, Maia remains one of the most dangerous submission artists in the UFC, while former Bellator champion Lyman Good has won both of his Octagon victories via knockout, and has rarely ventured onto the ground during his time in the promotion.
In all honesty, this would probably have been a simple win for Maia in his prime; I’m sure Good has improved since 2010, but back then he was easily beaten by Ben Askren, who simply took the Tiger Schulmann product downtime after time and outworked him positionally on the ground, coming close with a couple of submissions. And while Maia isn’t as credentialed a wrestler as Askren, his takedowns were phenomenal for a time – enough for him to easily outwrestle Jon Fitch, for instance.
The problem is that Maia hasn’t really looked in his prime for a while now, and while he put together a hot run that gained him a title shot in 2017, since he lost that title opportunity to Tyron Woodley he hasn’t won a fight and was comfortably beaten by both Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman. And at 41 years old, it’s easy to assume that Father Time has simply caught up with the Brazilian for good.
Having said that, it must be noted that Woodley, Covington and Usman are all amongst the very best wrestlers in the 170lbs division, and they’re also amongst the most athletic in the division too. Maia – who has never been an explosive athlete, even in his prime – may well have struggled with those three opponents at any point in his career.
Good is definitely an explosive athlete. He hits extremely hard, has pinpoint striking and attacks with a striking style that, like most Tiger Schulmann-trained fighters, leans heavily on quick combinations and sharp counterpunching. Good is perhaps more aggressive than his teammates Jimmie Rivera and Louis Gaudinot, but against Maia – who will look to time his takedowns when Good comes in swinging – that may change.
This is a tricky fight to pick as it’s so difficult to tell whether Maia is done at the top level or not. At 41 it’s definitely possible that he is, especially given he’s been fighting in the UFC for over a decade now. But last time I was ready to write him off – after his loss to Rory MacDonald and a couple of slower outings that followed – he came roaring back and earned himself a title shot.
In the end, I’m just not convinced enough by Good to see him being able to fend off Maia’s takedowns and get him out of there without ending up on his back once. And given grappling skills like Maia’s are one of the few parts of MMA that don’t rely on tremendous athleticism, I don’t see that he will have degenerated since 2015 when he made an incredible grappler like Gunnar Nelson look silly.
Good might hurt Maia early but at some point, this fight is going to hit the ground, and when it does I’m betting that it’ll be over in Maia’s favour.
The Pick: Maia via second round submission
#4 Charles Oliveira vs. David Teymur
Like the previous fight, this one is a classic striker vs. grappler match. Oliveira now has his name in the UFC’s history books for the most wins via submission with 12, while Teymur is almost exclusively a kickboxer, and the Swedish fighter has used that striking game to win all 5 of his UFC fights, including a pair of knockouts in his early days with the promotion.
This should be an interesting one to watch because both men have pretty clear paths to victory. Oliveira simply needs to get the fight to the ground, and if he can do that then the win should be his. Teymur is simply too unproven on the mat and ‘Do Bronx’ is an incredible grappler, capable of slapping on various submission holds from all kinds of positions. Even if Teymur can explode out of bad positions early, if he can’t stay on his feet then he’s likely to lose.
Having said that, it must be noted that Teymur hasn’t been beating only his fellow strikers. His last two wins came over Drakkar Klose and Nik Lentz – both notable wrestlers, and it could perhaps be argued that both men have better or equal takedowns to Oliveira, even if they’re nowhere near his level in terms of submission grappling. And neither man was really able to take Teymur down and keep him there.
Oliveira has also traditionally shown a lot of vulnerability standing. While he seems willing to trade off with more powerful strikers and does possess a decent Muay Thai attack, he’s also lost by strikes on numerous occasions and has shown a worrying tendency to fold under pressure, particularly when his opponent attacks his body – as we saw in his losses to Cub Swanson and Donald Cerrone. His submission losses to Ricardo Lamas and Anthony Pettis were also set up by damaging strikes.
The more I think about it, the more I’m leaning towards Teymur here. Oliveira has been on a great run and is unbelievably dangerous on the ground, but he’s also a smaller 155lber and – recent bodyslam of Jim Miller aside – isn’t the greatest wrestler.
If Teymur can stay on his bike and pick at the Brazilian from the outside – while stepping in to hurt him where possible, particularly to the body, where he loves to throw knees – then it’s definitely a winnable fight. Teymur already proved his striking credentials by beating the flashy Lando Vannata with relative ease – now it’s time to prove that he can step up to the next level.
The Pick: Teymur via first round TKO
#5 Johnny Walker vs. Justin Ledet
Johnny Walker – surely the least Brazilian-sounding Brazilian in MMA history, judging by his name – was one of 2018’s most impressive debutants, as he took out Khalil Rountree in terrifying fashion, knocking out the dangerous kickboxer with some brutal short elbows in just under 2 minutes. Given he showed a lot of charisma in his post-fight interview, many have pegged Walker as a star in the making.
If he can get past Ledet here, then he’ll definitely be a man to watch. Formerly a Heavyweight, Ledet garnered some hype purely by looking like a crisp striker as a bigger man – happy to pick opponents apart with a jab-heavy assault – but then ended up being criticised for a lack of killer instinct when he went to decision with the unheralded Zu Anwanyu in 2017.
A drop to 205lbs followed, but Ledet was then comfortably beaten by Aleksandar Rakic in his first fight at Light-Heavyweight, as the Austrian destroyed him with a mix of leg kicks and ground strikes, completely exposing Ledet’s lack of speed at the smaller weight. That result doesn’t bode well for the American’s fight with Walker, as the Brazilian is a classic Muay Thai stylist who throws leg kicks with aplomb and is also happy working from the clinch with his elbows and knees.
Sure, it’s possible that I’m overrating Walker a little based on the Rountree win; all footage of him prior to that fight shows an ultra-aggressive – if sloppy at times – striker who’s quite happy to go into wild trades, but I feel like his style matches really well with Ledet, whose jab-heavy offense simply doesn’t look like it’ll work as well against quicker foes at 205lbs.
Throw in the fact that Ledet’s ground game didn’t look too hot against Rakic and the fact that he’s never really been a KO puncher throughout his career, and I think he’s in trouble against Walker here. I expect the Brazilian to use his leg kicks to chop at Ledet while looking for a big shot probably from the clinch, and I think he’ll find the ‘off’ button at some point and get Ledet out of there in violent fashion.
The Pick: Walker via second round KO
#6 Livinha Souza vs. Sarah Frota
One of the best acquisitions of 2018 in the Strawweight division, former Invicta champion Souza made good on her UFC debut in September, easily dealing with Alex Chambers in the first round, knocking ‘Astro Girl’ down before submitting her with a guillotine choke. At 12-1 with her only career loss to UFC contender Angela Hill, Souza is primed for a run at the top and has the well-rounded skills to back it up.
Frota meanwhile is making her UFC debut here. She’s a product of Dana White’s Contender Series, where she won her fight in violent fashion, knocking her opponent out in the first round. She won’t win any beauty contests any time soon but with her facial tattoos and scary demeanour, she’s certainly one of the most intimidating-looking fighters in the division.
Will that be enough to get her past Souza, though? I’m not convinced. Footage on her shows her to seemingly be a less-powerful Jessica Andrade standing, rushing forward with a berserker-style to set up her takedowns and ground game. That style works for Andrade largely because she’s got bricks for fists, but despite Frota winning by knockout on DWTNCS, she’s quite clearly not as powerful a puncher as ‘Bate Estaca’.
Souza meanwhile is much more of a grappling-based fighter, but she’s also got a pretty sharp kickboxing game, as was demonstrated when she took out current UFC Flyweight DeAnna Bennett in Invicta in 2016. And with this in mind, I’m just not sure that Frota’s aggressive, berserker-style is going to work here against a far more experienced opponent. Frota is 9-0, but she’s only been fighting since April 2016 – at which point Souza was already holding the Invicta title.
I’m happy to take Souza here despite her likely giving up some physicality. Even if she gives up a takedown I think she’s got enough to outgrapple Frota and submit her from the bottom or the top following a sweep. I just can’t trust someone as inexperienced as Frota.
The Pick: Souza via first round submission
The Prelims (ESPN+ card)
We’ll be treated to 7 prelims on this card, and strangely enough, they’re all scheduled to take place on the ESPN+ streaming service, with no fights featured on the UFC’s own Fight Pass service.
Headlining the prelims is a Middleweight fight between Markus Perez and the curiously nicknamed Anthony ‘Fluffy’ Hernandez. Perez is coming off a loss to Andrew Sanchez, while Hernandez is making his UFC debut after finishing an opponent on the Contender Series in just 40 seconds. Hernandez is more experienced than his 7-0 record suggests due to an extensive amateur career, but it does appear that most of his opponents were wildly overmatched. Hernandez is a chubbier 185lber, but I think his aggressive striking style might be enough to get him past Perez here. Hernandez via TKO is my pick.
At Welterweight, former UFC title challenger Thiago Alves faces Max Griffin in what should be a striking-based battle. Alves showed flashes of his past greatness in his September loss to Alexey Kunchenko, but generally looks far slower and more vulnerable than he did in his prime. I wouldn’t call Griffin a contender as he’s too inconsistent, but based on Alves’ decline I think ‘Max Pain’ has enough to take a decision here.
At Women’s Flyweight, Mara Romero Borella takes on Talia Santos, another fighter debuting following a win on Dana White’s Contender Series. Both women are similarly experienced, although Santos’s 15-0 record is more impressive on paper. Judging on the sparse footage I’ve seen, Santos looks quite the nasty striker, but I’m more inclined to take the UFC experience here so I’m going with Borella via submission.
Junior Albini returns at Heavyweight to take on newcomer Jairzinho Rozenstruik, rather than Dmitry Sosnovskiy as was initially planned. This might be a nastier fight for him actually as while Rozenstruik lacks MMA experience, he fights out of the famed Cor Hemmers gym in the Netherlands and has a scary kickboxing record of 76-6. Albini might be best to take this to the ground – and he could definitely grapple his way to a decision – but I’m hoping Rozenstruik turns out to be a decent prospect to watch and so I’ll take him to win by TKO.
At Bantamweight, Said Nurmagomedov returns to take on Ricardo Ramos in what could be a fascinating fight to watch. Both men have pretty solid records, but it’s Ramos with his 3 UFC wins – including a sick spinning backfist over Aiemann Zahabi – who has impressed more thus far. Nurmagomedov is obviously a fantastic grappler but I’m going with the semi-upset in this one, as Ramos has looked fantastic in his UFC career thus far against some tricky opponents. Ramos via decision is the pick.
Finally, at Flyweight, Magomed Bibulatov faces newcomer Rogerio Bontorin – a curious signing if the UFC indeed plan to trim the 125lbs class. Bibulatov is coming off his shocking loss to John Moraga, but prior to that he was considered the top prospect in the world at 125lbs – and with that in mind I can’t really take Bontorin in good conscience; he looked solid on DWTNCS, but he has a prior loss to Michinori Tanaka, a fighter who struggled hugely in his own UFC run. I think Bibulatov finishes this in violent fashion by TKO.
