UFC Fight Night 159: Rodriguez vs Stephens - Predictions and Picks

#2 Carla Esparza vs Alexa Grasso

Mexican prospect Alexa Grasso seems to be reaching her prime

Another fight that sees a Mexican prospect taking on a more proven veteran, this is Grasso’s big chance to become the star that many fans pegged her to be when she first joined the UFC back in 2016 following an impressive run in Invicta FC. For Esparza meanwhile, it’s practically a must-win fight if she wants to remain a relevant contender in the division she once ruled over, albeit briefly.

The UFC’s first-ever Strawweight champion, Esparza won the title by beating Angela Hill, Tecia Torres, and Jessica Penne during the taping of TUF 20 before choking out a very raw Rose Namajunas in the finale. It seemed like Esparza’s excellent wrestling and submission game would make her a dominant champion, but then she ran into the buzzsaw-like Joanna Jedrzejczyk in her first title defense, and found herself destroyed.

To be honest, ‘Cookie Monster’ has never truly bounced back from that defeat. Sure, she’s had impressive performances and big wins since then; she stopped the rise of hot prospect Cynthia Calvillo with her wrestling and arguably beat Claudia Gadelha in their fight, but she’s also had 3 losses, her striking still looks a little stiff and the aura she had prior to that Jedrzejczyk fight is well and truly gone, as we saw when Tatiana Suarez basically destroyed her using her own wrestling-heavy style.

Grasso has had an equally up-and-down UFC tenure. She came into the Octagon with a lot of hype and outstruck Heather Jo Clark in her debut, but was then thoroughly outworked by the underrated Felice Herrig in her second fight. Since then she’s beaten 2 of 3 opponents – with only the monstrous Suarez defeating her – but she’s also missed weight once and has had serious knee surgery amongst other injuries, slowing her progress down.

It’s notable however that Grasso is still just 26 years old, and she’s coming off perhaps the best showing of her career to date, a boxing-heavy beatdown of former title challenger Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Esparza meanwhile is now 31, and while that’s not old per se, she has been fighting professionally since 2010, and mainly against extremely tough opponents.

Does Esparza have the skills to beat Grasso here? If she can ground her and keep her there, she probably does; she blanketed and beat up Calvillo from top position like it was 2014, for instance, but it’s worth remembering that Calvillo is a fighter who’s quite happy to fight off her back, while Grasso is far more likely to attempt to work back to her feet to unleash her striking.

And against Randa Markos – an excellent if inconsistent grappler – Grasso was able to escape from the bottom on a number of occasions, also stopping some of Markos’ takedowns and getting a couple of her own too. At 5’5” she’s also far taller than the 5’1” Esparza and appears to be much physically stronger, as well.

I like Grasso to win this fight; she seems like she’s just approaching her prime now whereas Esparza is likely coming to the end of hers if she hasn’t already passed it. If Grasso can stop the takedowns, especially early in the fight – and I think she can – then based on how she took Kowalkiewicz apart on the feet, I think she can uncork some big combinations on Esparza and maybe even stop her midway through the fight.

The Pick: Grasso via second-round TKO