UFC Fight Night 172: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 - Predictions and Picks

#2 UFC Middleweight Division: Jack Hermansson vs. Kelvin Gastelum

Jack Hermansson is a huge Middleweight who uses his size to full advantage

It’s probably fair to say that this Middleweight clash could easily have been the main event of a UFC Fight Night card this year, which makes it an excellent supporting fight.

Both men are coming off losses – Gastelum two, in fact – but prior to that they’d both been on stellar runs. It’s safe to say that the winner of this one will likely vault themselves right back into UFC title contention, so there’s big stakes here.

What makes it interesting is that it’s a clash pitting one of the bigger 185lbers on the roster against one of the smaller ones. Hermansson stands at 6’1” and has a monstrous reach of 77.5”. Gastelum, meanwhile, is built like a fireplug, standing at just 5’9” with a reach of 71.5”.

The issue for Gastelum is that Hermansson is very much a fighter who knows how to use that reach. He’s adept with his jab, likes to keep his opponent at distance, and if the distance closes, he’s also an excellent wrestler. On the ground, meanwhile, that reach comes into play again, as ‘The Joker’ can latch onto dangerous chokes such as guillotines, anaconda, and the D’Arce.

Thankfully for Gastelum, Hermansson does have some weaknesses. Despite a willingness to use his jab and be patient, ‘The Joker’ can get a little too wild at times with his striking. That opens him up to power strikes, and while his chin held up despite taking punishment from Jacare Souza at UFC Fight Night 150, that wasn’t the case in his last fight.

At UFC Fight Night 160, he essentially walked directly into a big shot from heavy hitter Jared Cannonier, and the fight was over shortly after. And that wasn’t the first time Hermansson had been stopped by strikes – Thiago Santos also managed it in 2017 at UFC Fight Night 119.

So can Gastelum recreate that gameplan? He’s definitely got the power in his hands, having knocked out the likes of Tim Kennedy and Michael Bisping in his UFC career. He even had current champ Israel Adesanya in trouble at points in their fight at UFC 236, before ‘The Last Stylebender’ overwhelmed him later on.

The problem with that though is that he’s going to have to get inside Hermansson’s reach in order to land a bomb, and unless the Swede gets really reckless, that’ll be hard for him. Cannonier was able to knock him out, but Cannonier also has the same reach – Gastelum will be at a 6” disadvantage.

More to the point, if he does get inside and they end up in a clinch situation, I’d favor Hermansson there too. Gastelum is a fantastic wrestler, but at 185lbs he simply isn’t that physically powerful. Darren Till, for instance, outmuscled him in the clinch in their fight at UFC 244. And he was also unable to take Adesanya down despite a number of attempts.

Hermansson, meanwhile, is one of the more underrated wrestlers in the division and knows how to use his size in order to both land and avoid takedowns. It’s highly doubtful Gastelum will simply be able to muscle him around despite his superior wrestling experience.

With all of that in mind, I find it hard to envision a path to victory for Gastelum in this fight. He’s a great fighter with some great UFC wins at 185lbs, but the fact is that all of them came against stylistically good opponents for him. Bisping could no longer take a big shot. Jacare’s cardio means he can be worn out (as Hermansson did to him too) and Tim Kennedy hadn’t fought in over two years before stepping in with Gastelum at UFC 206.

The unfortunate truth in my opinion is that Gastelum would simply be better off following a better diet, losing some muscle mass, and moving back to 170lbs, where his wrestling would be more suitable and his size wouldn’t be such a disadvantage.

Against Hermansson, one of the biggest, rangiest 185lbers out there? I just can’t see any path to victory for him unless he can land a huge shot, which is possible, but it essentially gives him a puncher’s chance.

The Pick: Hermansson via unanimous decision