UFC Fight Night 174: Lewis vs. Oleinik - Predictions and Picks

#2 UFC Middleweight Division: Chris Weidman vs. Omari Akhmedov

Former UFC champ Chris Weidman has not won a fight since his 2017 win over Kelvin Gastelum

Few fighters have fallen as quick and hard in the UFC as Chris Weidman has. Five years ago, he was undisputedly the best Middleweight on the planet. He’d made history by unseating legendary UFC champion Anderson Silva, then re-affirmed his spot by beating Lyoto Machida and Vitor Belfort.

Since then though, things haven’t been great at all. 2015 ended with Weidman losing his title to Luke Rockhold at UFC 194, and since then, injuries have essentially wrecked his career. Since the Rockhold loss, he’s fought just five times in the UFC, winning once – a 2017 submission of Kelvin Gastelum.

In his losses to Yoel Romero, Gegard Mousasi, and Jacare Souza, Weidman was always competitive – even winning at points. But in his debut at 205lbs he was blown away by Dominick Reyes in just 1:43, and many fans felt he was probably finished following the loss.

This fight marks his return to 185lbs, and we should find out whether he’s got anything left in the tank at all. Akhmedov is a solid fighter, but he’s not an elite-level UFC contender. And essentially, Weidman hasn’t fought a non-elite fighter since his 2011 win over Tom Lawlor.

Offensively, Weidman is still very good. An NCAA Division I All-American, he’s still one of the best wrestlers in the division. And as Gastelum found out, he’s highly dangerous with submissions from the top, particularly chokes.

On the feet, ‘The All-American’ has power in his punches, uses solid boxing fundamentals, and looks to make the most of his 78” reach. However, the durability he once had appears to be long gone now, as all of his five UFC losses have come via KO or TKO.

Basically then, this fight should tell us a lot about where Weidman stands. Is he a shot fighter who can’t take any kind of punishment anymore? Or does he simply need a run against non-elite level opponents for a while?

Akhmedov is ranked at #11 in the division, but he’s certainly not what you’d call elite. A former 170lber, ‘The Wolverine’ is 8-3-1 in the UFC, but only one of his wins has come by a proper finish. He stopped Thiago Perpetuo back in 2013 (I’m not counting his TKO of Brian Ebersole which came via injury).

Essentially, the Dagestani is a grinder by nature. He’ll come forward, hit his opponents with clubbing punches, and look to rough them up in the clinch and on the ground. His cardio is definitely a strength, and he’s surprisingly powerful for a smaller 185lber, but skill-for-skill, he isn’t close to the former UFC champ.

With all of this in mind, this really should be a comfortable win for Weidman – assuming he isn’t thoroughly shot. It’s a risky pick simply because at 36, ‘The All-American’ is getting no younger, and he definitely looked shopworn against Reyes. But then Reyes went onto push UFC Light-Heavyweight champ Jon Jones all the way. Akhmedov has never shown any indication that his ceiling is that high.

I’m going to take Weidman via TKO here, but I do worry that the fight goes the other way. If it does, it ought to be the last time we see Weidman in the UFC.

The Pick: Weidman via second-round TKO