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After a somewhat cursed card last weekend, the UFC returns to Las Vegas this weekend.
On tap is UFC Fight Night 174: Lewis vs. Oleinik, and for the time being at least, we appear to have 13 fights on the card. And with a wild-sounding Heavyweight main event, as well as the return of former UFC champ Chris Weidman, this should be must-see stuff.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 174: Lewis vs. Oleinik.
#1 UFC Heavyweight Division: Derrick Lewis vs. Aleksei Oleinik
The UFC’s Heavyweight division is in a bit of a logjam at the minute, but hopefully not for much longer. With current champ, Stipe Miocic set to end his three-fight rivalry with Daniel Cormier later this month – a trilogy of fights that’s taken over three years to complete – the division should be ready to move on, regardless of who wins.
The top contender is clearly Francis Ngannou, who has won his last four fights in violent fashion. But underneath ‘The Predator’, things are a little more open. That means that an impressive win for Lewis – who’s currently ranked at #4 – might well allow him to leapfrog Curtis Blaydes in the queue for a title shot.
Can ‘The Black Beast’ pull it off? It won’t be easy. Given he’s 43 years old, Oleinik ought to be slowing down, and yet that doesn’t seem to be the case. He’s 2-0 thus far into 2020, and his most recent fight saw him pick up his biggest UFC win to date over former champ Fabricio Werdum.
‘The Boa Constrictor’ is a slow, plodding fighter – particularly on the feet. But on the ground, he very much lives up to his nickname. Of his 59 career wins, 46 have come via submission, including six of his UFC victories. He’s deadly with all sorts of holds, but chokes are his specialty, in particular the rare Ezekiel choke.
Given that Lewis has traditionally had trouble on the ground, the big Ukrainian must be hopeful for his chance if he can take ‘The Black Beast’ down. That might be easier said than done, though.
Lewis doesn’t have the greatest takedown defense in the UFC. At times it’s been all too easy for foes to drag him to the mat. But once he’s there, while he’s far from a technical grappler, his explosive power makes him tricky to hold down. And he’s only been submitted once – a 2018 loss to Cormier via rear-naked choke.
Where ‘The Black Beast’ really excels is on the feet. At times, like Oleinik, he appears to be slow and plodding. But despite his huge size – he cuts weight to make the 265lbs Heavyweight limit – he has the ability to shock his opponents by suddenly exploding into action.
His UFC career has been built on this ability to lull foes into a false sense of security before suddenly destroying them with powerful punches. The likes of Alexander Volkov, Marcin Tybura, and Gabriel Gonzaga all fell to this style, and if Lewis lands cleanly, he’s got the power to turn the lights out on anyone.
Oleinik packs power of his own – he’s only got eight knockouts to his name, but he’s hurt plenty of opponents with his clubbing blows. However, can we really expect him to outstrike Lewis? It’s doubtful. ‘The Black Beast’ definitely has some issues. He’s vulnerable to body punches in particular, but his power makes it very dangerous for an opponent to risk a standing exchange.
That means that Oleinik’s only real chance of winning is to take Lewis down early and latch onto a submission. For a grappler of his standards, that’s a possibility, but it won’t be easy for him.
Lewis only becomes really vulnerable on the ground when he’s tired. Before that, he seems to have the ability to simply power out of holds, escaping tight situations with the likes of Blagoy Ivanov and Shamil Abdurakhimov in past UFC fights.
Oleinik is probably the best grappler Lewis has faced since Cormier, but he’ll have to be at his very best to catch ‘The Black Beast’ napping – and it won’t be that easy to get him down, either.
Add in the fact that ‘The Boa Constrictor’ has been taken out by strikes in his last three UFC defeats – most notably in a Lewis-style rush by Walt Harris in 2019 – and I think the better odds of victory are with Lewis here. I’ll take ‘The Black Beast’ via first-round knockout.
The Pick: Lewis via first-round TKO
#2 UFC Middleweight Division: Chris Weidman vs. Omari Akhmedov
Few fighters have fallen as quick and hard in the UFC as Chris Weidman has. Five years ago, he was undisputedly the best Middleweight on the planet. He’d made history by unseating legendary UFC champion Anderson Silva, then re-affirmed his spot by beating Lyoto Machida and Vitor Belfort.
Since then though, things haven’t been great at all. 2015 ended with Weidman losing his title to Luke Rockhold at UFC 194, and since then, injuries have essentially wrecked his career. Since the Rockhold loss, he’s fought just five times in the UFC, winning once – a 2017 submission of Kelvin Gastelum.
In his losses to Yoel Romero, Gegard Mousasi, and Jacare Souza, Weidman was always competitive – even winning at points. But in his debut at 205lbs he was blown away by Dominick Reyes in just 1:43, and many fans felt he was probably finished following the loss.
This fight marks his return to 185lbs, and we should find out whether he’s got anything left in the tank at all. Akhmedov is a solid fighter, but he’s not an elite-level UFC contender. And essentially, Weidman hasn’t fought a non-elite fighter since his 2011 win over Tom Lawlor.
Offensively, Weidman is still very good. An NCAA Division I All-American, he’s still one of the best wrestlers in the division. And as Gastelum found out, he’s highly dangerous with submissions from the top, particularly chokes.
On the feet, ‘The All-American’ has power in his punches, uses solid boxing fundamentals, and looks to make the most of his 78” reach. However, the durability he once had appears to be long gone now, as all of his five UFC losses have come via KO or TKO.
Basically then, this fight should tell us a lot about where Weidman stands. Is he a shot fighter who can’t take any kind of punishment anymore? Or does he simply need a run against non-elite level opponents for a while?
Akhmedov is ranked at #11 in the division, but he’s certainly not what you’d call elite. A former 170lber, ‘The Wolverine’ is 8-3-1 in the UFC, but only one of his wins has come by a proper finish. He stopped Thiago Perpetuo back in 2013 (I’m not counting his TKO of Brian Ebersole which came via injury).
Essentially, the Dagestani is a grinder by nature. He’ll come forward, hit his opponents with clubbing punches, and look to rough them up in the clinch and on the ground. His cardio is definitely a strength, and he’s surprisingly powerful for a smaller 185lber, but skill-for-skill, he isn’t close to the former UFC champ.
With all of this in mind, this really should be a comfortable win for Weidman – assuming he isn’t thoroughly shot. It’s a risky pick simply because at 36, ‘The All-American’ is getting no younger, and he definitely looked shopworn against Reyes. But then Reyes went onto push UFC Light-Heavyweight champ Jon Jones all the way. Akhmedov has never shown any indication that his ceiling is that high.
I’m going to take Weidman via TKO here, but I do worry that the fight goes the other way. If it does, it ought to be the last time we see Weidman in the UFC.
The Pick: Weidman via second-round TKO
#3 UFC Middleweight Division: Darren Stewart vs. Maki Pitolo
This fight marks Pitolo’s second UFC bout at Middleweight, following his knockout win over Charles Byrd at UFC 250. Interestingly, it also marks Stewart’s return to the UFC following an odd situation back in March during the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Essentially, Stewart was supposed to fight Marvin Vettori at the UFC’s aborted card in London on March 21st. When COVID-19 put an end to that, ‘The Dentist’ ended up facing Bartosz Fabinski in the Cage Warriors promotion, although the fight was billed as a ‘UFC bout’.
Stewart found himself largely out-grappled in that fight, as Fabinski spammed the clinch and takedowns to grind out a decision. It was a gameplan that Stewart had struggled with before – his losses to Edmen Shahbazyan and Francimar Barroso followed the same pattern.
Essentially, ‘The Dentist’ is a heavy-handed striker, but if an opponent can grind him down using wrestling, he’s definitely beatable. So will Pitolo follow the blueprint to pick up his second UFC win on the bounce?
Judging by his previous, that’s unlikely. ‘Coconut Bombz’, like Stewart, is largely a striker. He loves to throw heavy shots from close range, has no fear of trading punches, and is adept at digging to the body rather than simply head-hunting.
If these two fighters get into a wild shootout, then, in all honesty, it could be either man’s fight. Pitolo will likely have a speed advantage, but that could be offset by the fact that Stewart is probably going to be the bigger man. His pre-UFC fights came largely at 205lbs, while Pitolo only moved to 185lbs for the first time in June.
Overall though, I’m leaning towards Stewart. His losses have all seen him out-grappled, but I’m not sure that Pitolo is the man to do that. Sure, he slammed Byrd in that fight, but in the fight prior to that one, Callan Potter edged him out largely by out-grappling him in the third round.
‘Coconut Bombz’ had been ahead in that fight, but when Potter survived his initial onslaught, the Hawaiian quickly tired out – allowing Potter to take over. Given that Stewart simply isn’t the kind of guy to wilt in the face of a lot of striking pressure – he’s never been stopped by strikes – I’m not sure if there’s a path for Pitolo to win.
It’s more likely that after a trade, Stewart will look to use his own kryptonite against Pitolo. ‘The Dentist’ has sneakily decent takedowns in his arsenal for someone who’s largely a poor defensive wrestler. If he can take Pitolo down as Potter did, then it probably spells trouble for the Hawaiian, especially given the size and power of ‘The Dentist’.
It might not be pretty, but I expect Stewart to beat Pitolo up on the ground for a decision here.
The Pick: Stewart via unanimous decision
#4 UFC Bantamweight Division: Yana Kunitskaya vs. Julija Stoliarenko
Once considered the ‘glamour’ division for female fighters in the UFC, Bantamweight is now one of the thinner divisions in the promotion. Champion Amanda Nunes has basically beaten everyone there is to beat. And this means that even lesser contenders might be just a couple of fights away from a UFC title shot.
You’d have to class these two fighters among those lesser contenders. Of the two, Kunitskaya has far more experience at this level. The current beau of UFC Light-Heavyweight contender Thiago Santos, ‘Foxy’ debuted in the UFC back in 2018.
It wasn’t the most ideal debut for her, either. She came in on late notice and moved up to 145lbs to challenge then-champion Cris Cyborg. Naturally, it didn’t go well. The Russian did land a takedown on the champ, but Cyborg quickly turned the tables and beat her down en route to a first-round TKO.
Since then, Kunitskaya has gone 2-1 at 135lbs. A striker who’s willing to grapple and grind out an opponent from the clinch, she defeated Lina Lansberg and Marion Reneau, only to fall to the wild aggression of Aspen Ladd in her last fight.
Stoliarenko, meanwhile, is returning to the UFC as the reigning Invicta Bantamweight champion. She’s fought in the UFC before – a run at 145lbs on TUF 28 saw her fall to Pannie Kianzad, and she then lost to Leah Letson on the finale.
Since then she’s gone 5-0 and captured the Invicta title in her last bout. It’s worth noting though that the Invicta titles don’t mean what they once did. Most of the top female talent is now in the UFC already, meaning any Invicta titleholders quickly get hoovered up by the bigger promotion.
Based on the admittedly little I’ve seen, I’m favoring Kunitskaya here. Stoliarenko is more of a grappler, and while Ladd did take out ‘Foxy’ on the ground, she’s also a far superior wrestler and got Kunitskaya down by knocking her down with punches.
For Stoliarenko to take Kunitskaya down, she’s going to have to step right into the Russian’s wheelhouse – the clinch. And that’s worrying given the strength of Kunitskaya in that area and her own ability to use takedowns as well as nasty elbows and knees.
I’m not convinced that this will be an entertaining bout as Kunitskaya’s previous two wins weren’t easy on the eye. However, I’m confident that she’s got enough to grind out a decision win here.
The Pick: Kunitskaya via unanimous decision
#5 UFC Lightweight Division: Beneil Dariush vs. Scott Holtzman
This fight to me is possibly the strangest on this card. Both men are on winning runs – Dariush has won his last four, while Holtzman is 5-1 in his last six. However, there’s a lot of difference in their strength of competition. It feels to me like Dariush should be fighting someone a little higher on the ladder. He’s still ranked at #14 in the UFC rankings, after all.
A dangerous fighter in all areas, Dariush has one weakness that’s kept him from becoming a legitimate title contender. That’s the fact that he simply isn’t the best athlete, meaning he’s often at a disadvantage when it comes to speed and raw power.
That weakness was largely to blame for his losses to Edson Barboza and Alexander Hernandez, who both knocked him out. Outside of that though, he’s been pretty amazing. A genuinely world-class grappler, he’s also a highly underrated striker. He can be hurt standing – both Drakkar Klose and Drew Dober had him in trouble – but his chin is usually strong enough for him to survive.
Once he’s got an opponent down, meanwhile, he’s very difficult to stop. Eight of his 18 wins – including five in the UFC – have come by submission. And his 2019 tap-out of Drew Dober at UFC Fight Night 146 now seems even more impressive given what Dober has gone onto achieve since.
Holtzman, meanwhile, has been in the UFC since 2015 but has never really made any waves. His record is solid enough – 7-3 – but only two of his wins have come via stoppage.
Perhaps his most memorable appearance came last year in his brawl with Dong Hyun Ma. That fight saw both men throw caution to the wind and exchange bombs until Ma’s swollen eye caused a doctor’s stoppage.
‘Hot Sauce’ has decent skills in all areas, but he doesn’t really stand out in any particular one. His wrestling is solid, he’s a good striker, and he’s never been stopped. However, the only fighters he’s faced near to the level of Dariush have been Dober and Jim Miller.
The Dober fight was a back-and-forth one back at UFC 195 that saw Holtzman come out on the wrong end of a decision. And of course, it’s worth noting that Dober has improved dramatically since. ‘Hot Sauce’ did defeat Miller, but Miller is also way past his prime.
Given Holtzman has tended to get into extended grappling sequences with all of his UFC opponents, he ought to be worried here. If Dariush can land a takedown on him or keep him on the ground for any period of time, he’s probably going to find himself in trouble.
And even if Holtzman can keep the fight standing, there’s no guarantee he can win. Dariush is slow on the feet but he’s highly technical, has a good chin, and hits very hard. And ‘Hot Sauce’ simply isn’t as explosive as a Barboza or Hernandez.
Overall I feel like Holtzman is probably overmatched here. He’ll put up a good fight, but I suspect this will be the first time he’ll be finished in his UFC career.
The Pick: Dariush via second-round submission
#6 The Prelims: ESPN+ card
This weekend’s UFC prelims – like the main card – will all be shown on the ESPN+ streaming service. At the top of the card is a Welterweight bout between veteran Tim Means and Argentina’s Laureano Staropoli.
A veteran of 43 fights – most of which have come in the UFC – Means is probably nearing the end of his career now. ‘The Dirty Bird’ is a lanky Welterweight with a 75” reach, and he uses that to his advantage, hitting his opponents with nasty elbows from the clinch and hunting for chokes on the ground.
Staropoli, meanwhile, is more of a flashy striker, favoring a fight from distance with plenty of spinning attacks. This should come down to how much Means has left in the tank. If he can get inside Staropoli, it’s a winnable fight for him. And even if he can’t, the Argentine may struggle with his reach. However, ‘The Dirty Bird’ isn’t as durable as he once was and he’s almost a decade older than his opponent. With that in mind, I like Staropoli to edge a decision.
At Lightweight, prospect Nasrat Haqparast takes on Alexander Munoz. This will be Munoz’s UFC debut after he rose to fame with a win over Nick Newell on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2018, but worryingly, he’s only fought once since.
Haqparast was knocked out by Drew Dober in his previous fight, but prior to that, the Kelvin Gastelum lookalike had been fantastic. His striking is always improving and he’s got a lot of power in his hands. And training under Firas Zahabi, he’s improved his overall game too. I just can’t see a debutant having enough to beat him, and so I’m taking Haqparast via TKO.
In a clash at Middleweight, grinders Andrew Sanchez and Wellington Turman face off. Given the clinch-heavy attacks of both men thus far into their UFC careers, I don’t foresee an entertaining fight in this one. Turman is perhaps the more talented fighter overall, but ‘El Dirte’ has the kind of wrestling advantage that should allow him to eke out a decision.
Returning to the UFC after more than a year on the shelf, striker Gavin Tucker faces Justin Jaynes in a Featherweight bout. This could be a wild fight, with the hard-hitting brawler Jaynes looking to turn the lights out on Tucker. However, ‘The Newfoundland Terror’ is perhaps the more technical fighter, and so I like him to use that advantage to edge a decision – assuming his layoff doesn’t affect him too badly.
Also at Featherweight, Youssef Zalal faces Peter Barrett. Zalal only fought a month ago, outpointing the tough Jordan Griffin to pick up his second UFC win. Barrett, meanwhile, is making his UFC debut here. This could be a close one to call, but I think Zalal’s UFC experience will see him through, giving him a TKO win.
In the Bantamweight division, Irwin Rivera takes on Ali AlQaisi. A native of Jordan, AlQaisi will be making his UFC debut here, while striker Rivera is looking for his first UFC win following a debut loss in May. This one is tough to call given how unproven both men are. I’m leaning towards Rivera though purely because of his experience and toughness of competition. Rivera by decision is my pick.
At Strawweight, Australia’s Nadia Kassem takes on Miranda Granger. An inexperienced fighter, Kassem is 1-2 in the UFC and hasn’t fought since last October. Prospect Granger, meanwhile, lost her last fight to Amanda Lemos via submission. She should be the superior athlete here though, and with that in mind, I like her to win by TKO.
Finally, at Featherweight, veteran Alex Caceres faces Giga Chikadze. This could be an excellent fight and it’s a step up for Chikadze, who usually fights at 135lbs and is 3-0 in the UFC thus far. An exciting kickboxer, the Georgian will look to take the fight to ‘Bruce Leeroy’. Caceres is coming off two wins, the most recent over young prospect Chase Hooper, but this promises to be a much trickier task for him. It’s a very close fight to call but I like the aggression and overall skills of Chikadze to win him a decision.
