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The first UFC show of September goes down this weekend in Las Vegas, as UFC Fight Night 176 sees Alistair Overeem face Augusto Sakai in the main event.
Yet again it’s a somewhat strange card, with a number of fights moved to this card from the UFC’s previous shows due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, including the co-main event. Whether we’ll see more changes as the week goes on is a question mark but right now, it seems likely.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 176: Overeem vs. Sakai.
#1 UFC Heavyweight Division: Alistair Overeem vs. Augusto Sakai
This main event is a big fight, and not just because the combatants are two of the UFC’s largest Heavyweights. It could also have genuine title ramifications, as while it’d be a stretch to imagine Overeem getting another crack at UFC gold, if Sakai can beat the Dutchman and look impressive in doing so, then he’d probably be within a couple of fights of a title shot.
It’s a big ask, though. While Overeem isn’t as intimidating as he was in his ‘Ubereem’ heyday, he’s now settled into a role as arguably the Heavyweight division’s toughest veteran. Last time we saw him was during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic back in May, as he faced Walt Harris in the main event of the UFC’s third show in Jacksonville, Florida.
That fight saw Overeem demonstrate a new wrinkle in his game – largely an ability to recover from what looked to be a fight-ending shot.
It’s probably fair to suggest that referee Dan Miragliotta was perhaps a little more lenient than other UFC officials might’ve been, but ‘The Reem’ – who is usually considered chinny – still came back from a bad knockdown to take over the fight and eventually TKO Harris in the second round.
Prior to that fight, Overeem had been on a pretty strong run, taking out Sergei Pavlovich and Alexei Oleinik before falling to Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Even that fight was somewhat controversial, though. Overeem was winning comfortably before ‘Bigi Boy’ caught him with one big shot to finish him late in the fifth round.
‘The Reem’ has been around for so long now – nearly a decade in the UFC alone - that basically, everyone knows his strengths and weaknesses. Despite dropping size over recent years, he’s still physically powerful and one of the better athletes in the division. He’s a tremendous technical striker, both from the clinch and from range. And his wrestling is sneakily good and his ground-and-pound ruthless. He also possesses a nasty range of submissions, particularly his guillotine choke.
However, he’s always struggled to cope with heavy hitters. Earlier in his UFC career it appeared that his issue stemmed from his K-1 days, where he’d defend strikes by covering up using the larger kickboxing gloves – a tactic which didn’t translate well to MMA. However, nowadays it just seems – unsurprisingly – that at 40 years old, he doesn’t weather punishment very well any more.
Overeem’s other weakness might be his cardio, as he has shown a tendency to tire out in recent fights. However, given the plodding nature of most of his opponents, that doesn’t tend to matter.
So how does he match with Sakai? Personally, I’d say pretty well. The Brazilian is 4-0 in the UFC thus far, and like most Heavyweights, he’s a big hitter. 11 of his 15 career wins have come by KO or TKO, including two in the UFC. He’s also outpointed two solid fighters in the form of Blagoy Ivanov and Andrei Arlovski.
However, it’s worth noting that he’s a slower, plodding fighter – hardly a surprise for a guy who cuts weight to make 265lbs – and has a worrying tendency to stand around and wing big punches with little in the way of defense. And in his lone career loss to Cheick Kongo, he found himself grounded and easily controlled.
The issue for Sakai here then is that he’s going to have to find a way to land a big shot without falling prey to Overeem’s wide array of offense, including his takedowns, clinch work and heavy shots from the outside. It wouldn’t be so bad if the Brazilian had the option of looking to keep ‘The Reem’ at distance to outpoint him, but even that would be hard considering Overeem has a 3” reach advantage.
In the end, I just don’t think Sakai is an elite-level UFC Heavyweight and in all honesty – Rozenstruik loss aside – the only losses Overeem’s suffered recently have been to elite-level, UFC title contenders. I think this will probably go the same way as Overeem’s fight with Pavlovich – he’ll get inside, bully Sakai to the ground and finish him off from there.
The Pick: Overeem via second-round TKO
#2 UFC Light-Heavyweight Division: Ovince St. Preux vs. Alonzo Menifield
This fight was initially put together by the UFC for the Edgar vs. Munhoz card on August 22nd, only for it to fall apart on the day of the show. Worryingly, the reason for the cancellation was a positive COVID-19 test for St. Preux, and given this past weekend’s events, there’s every reason to suspect it’ll be cancelled again.
When you consider that two weeks wasn’t enough to allow Ion Cutelaba to be COVID-free following a positive test, will it really be enough time for OSP? Who knows. Evidently the UFC believes he’ll be okay, but we’ll see come the weekend as he'll obviously be tested at least one more time.
At any rate, in my previous breakdown for the fight, I was siding with St. Preux. He has far more UFC experience than Menifield and has beaten the likes of Tyson Pedro, Nikita Krylov and Michal Oleksiejczuk. And while he lost his most recent UFC outing to Ben Rothwell, his chin held up well against the larger man’s power.
In fact, OSP has only been stopped by strikes once in the UFC – by the hard-hitting Jimi Manuwa back in 2017.
Menifield probably hits just as hard as Manuwa. An incredible athletic talent, he came into the UFC from Dana White’s Contender Series in 2019 and quickly reeled off two brutal knockouts of Vinicius Moreira and Paul Craig.
However, his hype train was well and truly stalled by Devin Clark at UFC 250. ‘The Brown Bear’ survived his early barrage and was able to wear him out, bully him from the clinch and work him over on the ground for a decision.
As I suggested before, I suspect that as long as OSP can survive Menifield’s early barrage, then he should be able to win this one. Other UFC fighters have hurt him with a crude rush – Ilir Latifi for instance knocked him down with clubbing punches before submitting him – but he’s a smarter fighter than people think and tougher too.
In the end, I just can’t see him risking a trade with Menifield on the feet, and so I suspect he’ll absorb some punishment before dragging the prospect to the ground to submit him.
The Pick: St. Preux via second-round submission
#3 UFC Bantamweight Division: Sijara Eubanks vs. Karol Rosa
Considering her record stands at a somewhat patchy 5-4, Eubanks is actually one of the more underrated fighters in the UFC Bantamweight division right now. ‘Sarj’ made the finals of TUF 26’s UFC Flyweight title tournament, but was unable to fight for the title due to a weight miss.
She’s since gone 3-2 in the UFC, beating tough opponents like Lauren Murphy and Roxanne Modafferi while only losing to the highly-rated Aspen Ladd and former UFC title challenger Bethe Correia in what was a questionable decision.
Eubanks is a well-rounded fighter, but for the most part her grappling is where she shines. ‘Sarj’ is a legitimate Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt who’s won numerous medals in world Jiu-Jitsu tournaments. Essentially, she’s as legitimate as it gets when it comes to grappling.
Where she’s struggled in the UFC at least has been with her cardio. All of her fights have gone the distance and in both of her losses, she seemed to be ahead on the scorecards before tiring out later down the stretch.
The truth is that at 5’3”, she’s probably a little small for 135lbs and probably ought to have stayed at 125lbs and lost a little muscle mass to make the weight.
If you go by the two records, then Rosa appears to be more outstanding than Eubanks. The Brazilian is 2-0 in the UFC thus far, with wins over fellow Brazilians Lara Procopio and Vanessa Melo.
With a healthy mix of knockouts and submissions to her name, she’s a well-rounded fighter with skills in all areas. In her most recent UFC win, she largely outfought Melo in all areas, but generally looked better when she took her opponent to the ground.
The question for me here is whether Rosa – who stands at 5’7” - can use her size to bully around the more squat Eubanks in the clinch and her reach advantage to outstrike her. Rosa looked excellent on the ground at UFC 250 against Melo, but against a high-level grappler like Eubanks taking the fight to the mat perhaps wouldn’t be so smart.
Eubanks is the more proven UFC-level fighter right now but I’m siding with Rosa here. She’ll be the bigger fighter in the Octagon and should be able to keep ‘Sarj’ at range when the two are on their feet.
Given Eubanks’ penchant for gassing out – particularly against larger foes – unless she can get a really early takedown, I don’t think there’s much of an avenue for success here. I suspect Rosa will outstrike the TUF veteran early on, and by the point that a tired Eubanks manages to engage in a grappling war, it’ll be too late.
The Pick: Rosa via unanimous decision
#4 UFC Welterweight Division: Michel Pereira vs. Zelim Imadaev
By the time he steps into the Octagon at the weekend, it’ll have been nearly 7 months since we last saw Brazilian wildman Pereira in the UFC. That fight was one of the most bizarre of 2020, as ‘Demolidor’ unleashed all of his weird flips and tricks against a diminished Diego Sanchez, who ended up winning by DQ after Pereira illegally kneed him in the head.
The fight practically summed up Pereira in a nutshell. Sanchez looked massively hittable and didn’t really offer a lot of offense, and yet rather than really open up in an attempt to finish him, ‘Demolidor’ preferred to try all kinds of crazy offense that often didn’t work.
So is Pereira really all flash, no substance? Well, kind of. He’s clearly a very dangerous fighter. Danny Roberts is an excellent UFC-level Welterweight by anyone’s standards and Pereira turned his lights out in seconds last May.
However, if he can’t take out his opponent in a crazy rush, then it’s definitely true that he’s vulnerable. He gassed out horribly against the much smaller, late replacement Tristan Connelly last year for instance and ended up losing a decision, and the Sanchez fight looked more in line with that than the Roberts KO.
The question then is whether Russia’s Imadaev has enough to survive Pereira’s early rush before grinding him down as Connelly did.
Thus far in his UFC career, I’d say there are definitely questions over whether he’s capable of doing that. Before he signed with the UFC in 2018 he was able to go 8-0 on the regional circuit, knocking out all of his foes.
But at UFC 236, he struggled against Max Griffin, essentially being ground down by the more experienced veteran despite some flashy moments. And against former Pereira victim Roberts, he found himself outgunned somewhat and suffered a bad knockout.
Basically, the Russian just doesn’t seem like the kind of grinder who’ll be able to outwork Pereira down the stretch like Connelly did and a prime Sanchez would’ve been capable of doing. Instead it feels like he’s more likely to fight fire with fire and stand and trade off with ‘Demolidor’.
If that’s the case then I’ve got to favour Pereira. He’s more explosive, is the bigger man and judging from what Imadaev showed against Griffin, he’s probably better on the ground and in the clinch too.
My honest suspicion is that despite his last two showings, the UFC still views Pereira as a possible star in the mould of a Matt Brown or Derrick Lewis – not necessarily a title contender but the kind of exciting fighter you can throw into the main event of a Fight Night without eyebrows being raised.
A big win here would go a long way to justify the UFC feeling like that – if indeed that’s the case – and so I’m going with Pereira via KO.
The Pick: Pereira via first-round KO
#5 UFC Lightweight Division: Thiago Moises vs. Jalin Turner
This clash in the UFC’s Lightweight division looks like a classic clash of styles – the much-tried and tested striker vs. grappler bout.
In this case, Brazil’s Moises is going to want to get this fight to the ground pretty sharpish, while Turner will hope to keep it standing. To be fair, Moises isn’t a bad striker by any means. He earned his UFC contract with a head kick KO on the Brazilian version of Dana White’s Contender Series and actually has 3 knockouts on his ledger.
However, it’s on the ground where he really shines. A legitimate Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt fighting out of American Top Team, Moises is a truly brilliant grappler. He showed this most recently against Michael Johnson, submitting the UFC veteran with an Achilles lock despite being pieced up for the first round on the feet.
Turner on the other hand is definitely more of a striker, with 8 of his 9 wins coming by KO. ‘The Tarantula’ came into the UFC under interesting circumstances, taking a fight with the much larger Vicente Luque at Welterweight at UFC 229. He duly lost by KO, but bounced back to defeat Callan Potter by KO at UFC 234.
Since then he’s gone 1-1 – winning his most recent fight again by KO. However, it’s his loss to Matt Frevola at UFC 236 last year that should be ringing some alarm bells.
That fight saw ‘The Steamrolla’ thoroughly outwork Turner on the ground, coming close with numerous submission attempts before taking a clear-cut decision. Frevola is an excellent fighter but the truth is that he isn’t on the same level as Moises when it comes to grappling.
If ‘The Tarantula’ had better takedown defense, I’d probably be willing to give him a chance here, but his wrestling didn’t look great in that fight with Frevola. Even if he’s improved dramatically since, I’m just not sure he has the same levels of speed that allowed Johnson to give Moises so many problems on the feet.
Turner obviously has a puncher’s chance here. He’s athletic, explosive, hits hard and knows how to finish, but I simply feel like the gap between the two men on the ground is far wider than the one on the feet. I expect Moises to pick up his third UFC win here, probably by submission.
The Pick: Moises via second-round submission
#6 UFC Featherweight Division: Brian Kelleher vs. Kevin Natividad
This fight has been put together on less than a week’s notice. Kelleher was initially pegged to face off with Ricky Simon here, but Simon was forced off the card when one of his cornermen tested positive for COVID-19.
That appeared to mark the end of Kelleher's chances to fight, but thankfully for ‘Boom’, the UFC has been able to find a new opponent for him on less than a week’s notice. UFC newcomer Kevin Natividad has accepted the fight, and based on his record and footage on him, this one could be an exciting fight.
Natividad appears to be a striker by trade, and 5 of his 9 wins coming by KO or TKO back that up. However, he doesn’t appear to be a technical marvel, instead preferring to throw down with his opponents wildly. He’s more than willing to take two shots to give a bigger one back, and for the most part that’s worked out well.
However, ‘Quicksand’ is up against an extremely heavy hitter here. Kelleher has 8 career KO’s, 2 of which have come in the UFC. ‘Boom’, like Natividad, is more than willing to trade wildly with his opponents, as his fights with Hunter Azure, John Lineker and Renan Barao have shown.
Interestingly, the UFC veteran will likely give up some size to the newcomer here. He’s a natural 135lber who’s moved up, while Natividad appears to be a decently-sized 145lber. However, Kelleher also has a sneakily good ground game. He’s tapped 9 opponents in the past, including notable grapplers Julio Carce and Iuri Alcantara.
Given Natividad’s late notice for the fight and his dangerous, reckless style on the feet, it’d probably be smart for Kelleher to look to take him down quickly here. If he can do that then he’ll take the newcomer out of his comfort zone and probably leave him open for a submission.
If Natividad had more notice for the fight then he might be worth an underdog bet here, but I can’t see it myself. I suspect Kelleher will pick up his third UFC win of the year, likely by submission. Given his record, the guillotine choke may well turn out to be his go-to move here.
The Pick: Kelleher via second-round submission
#7 The Prelims: UFC on ESPN+ card
This weekend’s show is set to have four prelims on the ESPN+ streaming service. The UFC may add fights later in the week depending on COVID-19 issues, of course, but really nobody can predict what might go down in that case!
At the top of the prelim portion sits a Middleweight clash between Bartosz Fabinski and Andre Muniz. It’s no surprise that the UFC has left this one on the prelim card. Both men are highly talented fighters but aren’t the most exciting, preferring to grind their foes down on the mat.
Fabinski is 4-1 in the UFC if you count a strange ‘UFC bout’ against Darren Stewart that took place at Cage Warriors 113 early in the COVID-19 pandemic. He’s never finished an opponent in the Octagon, simply taking them down to ground-and-pound them for a decision.
Muniz, meanwhile, hasn’t fought since an odd clash with Antonio Arroyo last November in his UFC debut. ‘Sergipano’ came out on top in that one, but the fight ended up slowing down dramatically after a fast start. Outside of that, though, the Brazilian is a submission expert – tapping 12 of his 23 opponents.
‘Sergipano’ definitely has the raw ability to submit Fabinski, but I worry that he won’t be able to take him down, and if that’s the case then the chance of him gassing out will increase. With that in mind, I suspect ‘The Butcher’ will be able to grind out another decision win here.
In a Flyweight bout, Montana De La Rosa faces Viviane Araujo. Despite lacking raw athleticism, De La Rosa has actually done well in the UFC, using her grappling game to put together a strong 4-1 record. Araujo meanwhile surprised everyone by defeating Alexis Davis in 2019, but most recently didn’t look great in a decision loss to Jessica Eye.
It’s worth noting though that Eye is a super-tough veteran, and Araujo did have a couple of decent moments in that fight. She’s also far more athletically talented than De La Rosa, which could be worrying for ‘Monty’. Overall, De La Rosa might be the slightly smarter pick here, but I actually think Araujo can take her out early on, probably via TKO.
At Heavyweight, Marcos Rogerio De Lima faces Alexander Romanov. Romanov is making his UFC debut and is 11-0 overall, and the likelihood of this one going the distance seems low. ‘King Kong’ has never been the distance, while De Lima has finished his opponent – or been finished – on 9 occasions in the UFC alone.
De Lima’s Achilles heel has traditionally been his ground game, which could be worrying here given Romanov has 6 wins by tapout. However, the UFC newcomer is also not the biggest fighter at Heavyweight, and to be frank, snacking on lower-level opponents won’t have prepared him for the kind of storm that ‘Pezao’ is capable of bringing. With that in mind, I’m going for De Lima via KO in this one.
Finally, Cole Smith takes on Hunter Azure in a Bantamweight clash. To me this one looks tailor-made for Azure. He was upset by Brian Kelleher in his last bout, but before that he’d been able to use his slick striking to outpoint Brad Katona to win his UFC debut. Smith meanwhile appears to be a lesser athlete, and despite being 1-1 in the UFC, I’m not sure he’s quite ready for this level. I’ll take Azure by decision in this one.
