UFC Fight Night 176: Overeem vs. Sakai - Predictions and Picks

#3 UFC Bantamweight Division: Sijara Eubanks vs. Karol Rosa

Can Sijara Eubanks outgrapple Karol Rosa this weekend?

Considering her record stands at a somewhat patchy 5-4, Eubanks is actually one of the more underrated fighters in the UFC Bantamweight division right now. ‘Sarj’ made the finals of TUF 26’s UFC Flyweight title tournament, but was unable to fight for the title due to a weight miss.

She’s since gone 3-2 in the UFC, beating tough opponents like Lauren Murphy and Roxanne Modafferi while only losing to the highly-rated Aspen Ladd and former UFC title challenger Bethe Correia in what was a questionable decision.

Eubanks is a well-rounded fighter, but for the most part her grappling is where she shines. ‘Sarj’ is a legitimate Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt who’s won numerous medals in world Jiu-Jitsu tournaments. Essentially, she’s as legitimate as it gets when it comes to grappling.

Where she’s struggled in the UFC at least has been with her cardio. All of her fights have gone the distance and in both of her losses, she seemed to be ahead on the scorecards before tiring out later down the stretch.

The truth is that at 5’3”, she’s probably a little small for 135lbs and probably ought to have stayed at 125lbs and lost a little muscle mass to make the weight.

If you go by the two records, then Rosa appears to be more outstanding than Eubanks. The Brazilian is 2-0 in the UFC thus far, with wins over fellow Brazilians Lara Procopio and Vanessa Melo.

With a healthy mix of knockouts and submissions to her name, she’s a well-rounded fighter with skills in all areas. In her most recent UFC win, she largely outfought Melo in all areas, but generally looked better when she took her opponent to the ground.

The question for me here is whether Rosa – who stands at 5’7” - can use her size to bully around the more squat Eubanks in the clinch and her reach advantage to outstrike her. Rosa looked excellent on the ground at UFC 250 against Melo, but against a high-level grappler like Eubanks taking the fight to the mat perhaps wouldn’t be so smart.

Eubanks is the more proven UFC-level fighter right now but I’m siding with Rosa here. She’ll be the bigger fighter in the Octagon and should be able to keep ‘Sarj’ at range when the two are on their feet.

Given Eubanks’ penchant for gassing out – particularly against larger foes – unless she can get a really early takedown, I don’t think there’s much of an avenue for success here. I suspect Rosa will outstrike the TUF veteran early on, and by the point that a tired Eubanks manages to engage in a grappling war, it’ll be too late.

The Pick: Rosa via unanimous decision