UFC Fight Night 176: Overeem vs. Sakai - Predictions and Picks

Alistair Overeem faces Augusto Sakai in this weekend's UFC main event
Alistair Overeem faces Augusto Sakai in this weekend's UFC main event

#6 UFC Featherweight Division: Brian Kelleher vs. Kevin Natividad

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Brian Kelleher will be looking for his third UFC win of 2020 this weekend against newcomer Kevin Natividad
Brian Kelleher will be looking for his third UFC win of 2020 this weekend against newcomer Kevin Natividad

This fight has been put together on less than a week’s notice. Kelleher was initially pegged to face off with Ricky Simon here, but Simon was forced off the card when one of his cornermen tested positive for COVID-19.

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That appeared to mark the end of Kelleher's chances to fight, but thankfully for ‘Boom’, the UFC has been able to find a new opponent for him on less than a week’s notice. UFC newcomer Kevin Natividad has accepted the fight, and based on his record and footage on him, this one could be an exciting fight.

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Natividad appears to be a striker by trade, and 5 of his 9 wins coming by KO or TKO back that up. However, he doesn’t appear to be a technical marvel, instead preferring to throw down with his opponents wildly. He’s more than willing to take two shots to give a bigger one back, and for the most part that’s worked out well.

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However, ‘Quicksand’ is up against an extremely heavy hitter here. Kelleher has 8 career KO’s, 2 of which have come in the UFC. ‘Boom’, like Natividad, is more than willing to trade wildly with his opponents, as his fights with Hunter Azure, John Lineker and Renan Barao have shown.

Interestingly, the UFC veteran will likely give up some size to the newcomer here. He’s a natural 135lber who’s moved up, while Natividad appears to be a decently-sized 145lber. However, Kelleher also has a sneakily good ground game. He’s tapped 9 opponents in the past, including notable grapplers Julio Carce and Iuri Alcantara.

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Given Natividad’s late notice for the fight and his dangerous, reckless style on the feet, it’d probably be smart for Kelleher to look to take him down quickly here. If he can do that then he’ll take the newcomer out of his comfort zone and probably leave him open for a submission.

If Natividad had more notice for the fight then he might be worth an underdog bet here, but I can’t see it myself. I suspect Kelleher will pick up his third UFC win of the year, likely by submission. Given his record, the guillotine choke may well turn out to be his go-to move here.

The Pick: Kelleher via second-round submission

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Edited by Sai Krishna
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