UFC Fight Night 176: Overeem vs. Sakai - Predictions and Picks

Alistair Overeem faces Augusto Sakai in this weekend's UFC main event
Alistair Overeem faces Augusto Sakai in this weekend's UFC main event

#7 The Prelims: UFC on ESPN+ card

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Brazilian grappler Andre Muniz headlines this weekend's UFC prelim card against Polish grinder Bartosz Fabinski
Brazilian grappler Andre Muniz headlines this weekend's UFC prelim card against Polish grinder Bartosz Fabinski

This weekend’s show is set to have four prelims on the ESPN+ streaming service. The UFC may add fights later in the week depending on COVID-19 issues, of course, but really nobody can predict what might go down in that case!

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At the top of the prelim portion sits a Middleweight clash between Bartosz Fabinski and Andre Muniz. It’s no surprise that the UFC has left this one on the prelim card. Both men are highly talented fighters but aren’t the most exciting, preferring to grind their foes down on the mat.

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Fabinski is 4-1 in the UFC if you count a strange ‘UFC bout’ against Darren Stewart that took place at Cage Warriors 113 early in the COVID-19 pandemic. He’s never finished an opponent in the Octagon, simply taking them down to ground-and-pound them for a decision.

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Muniz, meanwhile, hasn’t fought since an odd clash with Antonio Arroyo last November in his UFC debut. ‘Sergipano’ came out on top in that one, but the fight ended up slowing down dramatically after a fast start. Outside of that, though, the Brazilian is a submission expert – tapping 12 of his 23 opponents.

‘Sergipano’ definitely has the raw ability to submit Fabinski, but I worry that he won’t be able to take him down, and if that’s the case then the chance of him gassing out will increase. With that in mind, I suspect ‘The Butcher’ will be able to grind out another decision win here.

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In a Flyweight bout, Montana De La Rosa faces Viviane Araujo. Despite lacking raw athleticism, De La Rosa has actually done well in the UFC, using her grappling game to put together a strong 4-1 record. Araujo meanwhile surprised everyone by defeating Alexis Davis in 2019, but most recently didn’t look great in a decision loss to Jessica Eye.

It’s worth noting though that Eye is a super-tough veteran, and Araujo did have a couple of decent moments in that fight. She’s also far more athletically talented than De La Rosa, which could be worrying for ‘Monty’. Overall, De La Rosa might be the slightly smarter pick here, but I actually think Araujo can take her out early on, probably via TKO.

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At Heavyweight, Marcos Rogerio De Lima faces Alexander Romanov. Romanov is making his UFC debut and is 11-0 overall, and the likelihood of this one going the distance seems low. ‘King Kong’ has never been the distance, while De Lima has finished his opponent – or been finished – on 9 occasions in the UFC alone.

De Lima’s Achilles heel has traditionally been his ground game, which could be worrying here given Romanov has 6 wins by tapout. However, the UFC newcomer is also not the biggest fighter at Heavyweight, and to be frank, snacking on lower-level opponents won’t have prepared him for the kind of storm that ‘Pezao’ is capable of bringing. With that in mind, I’m going for De Lima via KO in this one.

Finally, Cole Smith takes on Hunter Azure in a Bantamweight clash. To me this one looks tailor-made for Azure. He was upset by Brian Kelleher in his last bout, but before that he’d been able to use his slick striking to outpoint Brad Katona to win his UFC debut. Smith meanwhile appears to be a lesser athlete, and despite being 1-1 in the UFC, I’m not sure he’s quite ready for this level. I’ll take Azure by decision in this one.

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Edited by Sai Krishna
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