UFC Fight Night 179: Moraes vs. Sandhagen - Predictions and Picks

#3 UFC Heavyweight Division: Ben Rothwell vs. Marcin Tybura

Longtime UFC veteran Ben Rothwell has slowed down since his return in 2019.

It feels like the UFC can’t put on a show right now without having a potentially sloppy Heavyweight fight on the main card, and this one fits that spot to a tee. Both men are coming off two wins in a row, but if we’re honest, neither man is anywhere near UFC title contention right now and for good reason.

Rothwell simply hasn’t been the same since returning to the UFC from a suspension for PEDs in 2019. Prior to that, ‘Big Ben’ was a lumbering fighter but one who was surprisingly quick and possessed dangerous finishing skills both on the ground and the feet.

Since his return, though, that speed appears to be gone. Rothwell now tends to plod forward, either lunging for the clinch or winging heavy punches that his opponent can often avoid. His last two UFC wins have been quite contentious, too.

Stefan Struve was picking him apart until Rothwell landed a number of low blows to turn the tide, and Ovince St. Preux arguably landed the better strikes on him but simply backed up too much for the judges to be swayed.

Tybura meanwhile, has had similar issues. He started his UFC career well by reeling off three impressive wins, but hit a ceiling in his losses to Fabricio Werdum and Derrick Lewis. Since then, he’s largely stagnated, either winning fights by grinding his opponents down from the clinch or on the ground, or losing them by TKO.

Basically then, unless this fight ends in a quick KO – likely for Rothwell – then it’s probably not going to be that entertaining. More likely is a slow-paced clinch-fest with the odd big exchange of punches. The question for me is whether Tybura can put Rothwell on his back. If he can do that, then it’s a winnable fight for him – but if he can’t, he’s likely to lose.

Given ‘Tybur’ isn’t a truly powerful wrestler, then – he tends to set his takedowns up by crowding opponents who back up straight – it doesn’t bode well for him. Rothwell is slow and plodding, but he’s still been able to fend off the takedowns of the likes of Blagoy Ivanov and St. Preux in recent fights.

Overall, I suspect this will look like Rothwell’s fight with Ivanov – two big, plodding dudes exchanging strikes in and out of the clinch. ‘Big Ben’ came out on the wrong end of that fight, but I think Ivanov is a little quicker than Tybura, and that lack of speed should make the difference. Rothwell on a three-fight win streak in the UFC in 2020 sounds crazy, but it’s the likely outcome for me.

The Pick: Rothwell via unanimous decision