UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales prediction, stats and fight breakdown

The UFC is back at the Las Vegas APEX next weekend for another Fight Night. The headliner features two top welterweights squaring off.

Gilbert Burns has been on somewhat of a slide recently, with the former UFC welterweight title challenger losing his last three fights in a row. He will attempt to right the ship here.

Facing off against the Brazilian will be Ecuadorian prospect Michael Morales, who has broken into the top 15 at 170 pounds and is now ranked No. 12. A win over 'Durinho', though, would be a career high for him.

So can Burns avoid a crushing defeat, or will Morales continue to make his mark on the UFC's welterweight division?

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UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales stats

When looking at the records of these two fighters, one thing instantly leaps out, and that's the fact that Michael Morales is still undefeated at 17-0.

To add to this, the native of Ecuador is also a consummate finisher, as he's only gone the distance on four occasions to date.

However, it's definitely fair to say that Gilbert Burns has far more experience than Morales, both in the octagon and overall. His current record is 22-8, meaning that he's had almost twice the amount of fights as the Ecuadorian.

More to the point, he has now been in the top promotion for over ten years, and this upcoming bout will be his 24th in the octagon overall.

Based on this experience differential, it should also be obvious that 'Durinho' has fought much better opposition than Morales.

Morales' best win is probably his most recent one, as he knocked out longtime gatekeeper Neil Magny in August to move into the top 15 at 170 pounds.

However, Burns holds wins over big names like Jorge Masvidal, Stephen 'Wonderboy' Thompson, Tyron Woodley and Demian Maia.

Even his losses, for the most part, are nothing to be ashamed of, coming against the likes of current champ Belal Muhammad, former champ Kamaru Usman and current top-ranked contenders Jack Della Maddalena and Sean Brady.

Physically, Morales might have an advantage here. Not only is he the taller man, standing at 6ft compared to Burns at 5ft 10in, but he'll also enjoy an eight-inch reach advantage.

As 'Durinho' once fought at 155 pounds, it's likely that he will be the smaller man on the night overall.

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UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales breakdown and prediction

On the face of things, it'd be easy to say that this bout pits one fighter on his way down against an opponent on his way up.

However, while it's probably true that Morales has a brighter future than Burns at this point, the big question is whether the Ecuadorian will be ready for this kind of challenge.

'Durinho' will be by far the most difficult opponent that Morales has faced, while for Burns, facing dangerous, highly rated fighters is basically by-the-by.

In terms of how the fight will go from a stylistic point of view, it's likely that Burns will want to get Morales on the ground to work his Brazilian jiu-jitsu game. 'Durinho' is a great grappler, and while he has come a long way with his striking, getting opponents down and bullying them is still his real forte.

Given that Morales has a takedown defense rate of 92 percent, then, can Burns' bullying style work on him? That's the big question.

The issue for Morales here is the fact that Burns is not a standard jiu-jitsu fighter with weak takedowns. He's got strong wrestling fundamentals at this stage, and what's more, his stocky frame means that he can land takedowns from inside and power opponents to the ground.

In fact, the only fighters he's failed to take down in recent years have been stellar wrestlers like Brady, Usman and Muhammad. Even Della Maddalena was taken down seven times before he produced his stirring comeback.

Morales, on the flip side, has not fought a wrestler even close to the abilities of 'Durinho'. In fact, the only fighters to really try to take him down were Adam Fugitt and striker Max Griffin, with Fugitt getting him down once.

To add to this, Burns has not been taking beatdowns in his losses. Muhammad and Brady outpointed him, but Della Maddalena was actually losing until he managed to land a huge knee strike late on.

Burns has also had numerous five-round fights and has proven that he doesn't tire out late on in bouts, as he pushed the pace against Woodley and Masvidal and was also the fresher man when his clash with Khamzat Chimaev ended.

Morales will be hoping that things don't go that far. An absolutely dynamic striker, he's shown devastating finishing power, but he's also demonstrated poise and patience, too.

He picked Jake Matthews apart with his jab and low kicks, winning a three-round decision, and finished Magny with a spinning elbow and a salvo of punches on the ground.

If he can keep Burns at distance using that reach advantage, and work his legs over with kicks, then there's definitely a chance that he can pick him apart. Whether he can finish such a tough fighter is another thing entirely, but if he does get 'Durinho' hurt, then he definitely has killer instinct.

Morales may well prove to be the real deal and take Burns out, as he's clearly explosive, talented and knows how to finish opponents if he hurts them.

However, 'Durinho' doesn't look fossilised just yet, and so this could well prove to be a step too far for the Ecuadorian, who just hasn't done anything at this stage to prove he's ready for this kind of fight.

If there's a finish, it'll probably come from Morales early on, but the smarter money is on Burns to grind him down.

The Prediction: Gilbert Burns wins via decision

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Undercard predictions

Picks in bold

UFC light heavyweight bout: Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato

UFC lghtweight bout: Sodiq Yusuff vs. Mairon Santos

UFC middlweight bout: Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Nursulton Ruziboev

UFC featherweight bout: Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa

UFC lightweight bout: Gabriel Green vs. Matheus Camilo

UFC lighttweight bout: Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moises

UFC bantamweight bout: Luana Santos vs. Tainara Lisboa

UFC strawweight bout: Elise Reed vs. Denise Gomes

UFC flyweight bout: Park Hyun Sung vs. Carlos Hernandez

UFC strawweight bout: Tecia Pennington vs. Luana Pinheiro

UFC featherweight bout: Conor Matthews vs. Yadier del Valle