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The UFC returns to New Jersey this weekend for its 5th show on the ‘big’ ESPN network, and at the top of the card is a major Welterweight showdown that could well decide the next title challenger.
Elsewhere on the card, we’ve got a clash of two real veterans in the semi-main event, and, well, the rest of the card is quite weak, to be honest. Still, with a main event like Robbie Lawler vs. Colby Covington, it honestly shouldn’t matter.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Lawler.
#1 Colby Covington vs. Robbie Lawler
This is a huge fight at 170lbs, and despite Jorge Masvidal’s huge knockout of Ben Askren a couple of weeks ago, there’s every chance that the winner of this one could get the next shot at current Welterweight champ Kamaru Usman. That applies in particular to Colby Covington, who has a ready-made rivalry with Usman and obviously held the Interim title last year before injuries and some other, largely unknown issues put paid to a unification fight.
But can ‘Chaos’ get past Robbie Lawler? It’s a hell of a question and one that we should find an answer to at the weekend. This isn’t really a tricky fight to break down, either; if Lawler can stop Covington’s takedown, then he should win this fight, it’s as simple as that. Colby has improved his striking but he’s not close to Lawler’s level yet and while he was happy to trade with Demian Maia and Rafael Dos Anjos, to do the same with Lawler would be a huge mistake.
The issue ‘Ruthless’ will have is that Covington – while not as technically good a wrestler as Askren or Usman – pushes an insane pace and has essentially been able to impose his will on every opponent he’s ever faced with his takedowns. And it’s not like Lawler is infallible as a wrestler; Askren eventually took him down despite being badly hurt early in the fight, even if his eventual submission finish was somewhat bogus, and prior to his title reign from 2014 to 2016, Johny Hendricks essentially beat him for the vacant title by outwrestling him.
Since then Lawler has gotten older and been in far more wars, too. Quite how he’s still ticking at age 37 after going through his fights with Carlos Condit, Rory MacDonald and Hendricks is anyone’s guess. Admittedly, he looked far past his prime when he lost to Dos Anjos in 2017, but then he also tore his ACL in that fight and then looked far better when he fought Askren in March.
There’s no denying that Covington is much more in his prime than Lawler, then. At 31 he’s probably at his athletic peak, and – depending on how much you believe his outrageous public persona – he’s a fighter who carries a kind of confidence that can almost pull him through sticky situations inside the cage. If he’s able to get Lawler down early and work him over, then there’s every chance he repeats that gameplan throughout the fight to take a decision.
With that said though, I think I’m leaning towards Lawler here. Firstly, while Askren and Hendricks had some success wrestling him down, it must be said that Askren has a rare ability to stick to an opponent almost like glue – something Covington doesn’t really have. And Hendricks only had success wrestling Lawler in their first fight – the second one saw Lawler largely stop his takedowns.
More to the point, in his prime Hendricks was also a fantastic technical kickboxer, and it was his striking that allowed him to set up his takedowns on Lawler. Covington, on the other hand, is a willing striker, but he’s nowhere near as technical as Hendricks was and I simply can’t get the image of him being tagged over and over by Demian Maia in their fight before finally forcing Maia to wilt due to his pace. And Robbie Lawler is not Maia on the feet.
This is a winnable fight for Covington if he can somehow force a pace that Lawler can’t keep up with, but even then, when he’s healthy Lawler has never been one to falter due to pace. In fact, he’s probably underrated in terms of the way he can lull an opponent into a false sense of security by slowing his pace before suddenly exploding into incredible levels of violence.
In the end, I don’t trust that Covington can pull off his usual gameplan of brawling into the clinch before spamming takedowns without getting badly hurt at some point. He might get some early success, but eventually, Lawler will lull him in and catch him with something nasty, and from there I think he’ll finish him off – in ‘Ruthless’ fashion.
The Pick: Lawler via third-round TKO
#2 Jim Miller vs. Clay Guida
Given how long these two have been in the UFC – Clay Guida debuted in 2006, Jim Miller in 2008 – and the crazy amount of fights they’ve been through in that time, it’s hard to believe that they’ve never faced off before. The problem with matching them at this point? Both men are miles past their prime and so the fight essentially means nothing in the bigger picture. That doesn’t mean it won’t be fun, though.
Guida has actually been on a solid run as of late; he’s 3-1 since returning to 155lbs in 2017, and he looked great in his knockout win over Joe Lauzon in November that year. Sure, it was worrying to see him struggle for a round with the re-animated corpse of BJ Penn earlier this year, but for the most part the tools that brought him near the top of the division a decade ago – his wild pace, strong wrestling game and unorthodox striking – are still there, it’s just that they don’t work quite as well against higher-level opponents any more.
Miller, on the other hand, is coming off a pretty impressive win over Jason Gonzalez – his second first-round submission win in his last three fights – but if anything, he’s struggled far more than Guida over the past few years. A battle with Lyme Disease was initially blamed for his slide – he lost 4 of 5 fights from 2014 to 2016 – but a 4-fight slide from 2017 to 2018 was more worrying as his durability and cardio both seem to have vanished.
In their primes, I probably would’ve picked Miller to win this fight handily based on the fact that while Guida’s pace would’ve caused him some issues, Miller’s grappling skill was far superior in terms of submissions, positional sense, and so forth, and while Guida has always been an awkward striker, in his prime Miller was a pretty excellent kickboxer with some good power in his strikes.
Now, though? I think you’ve got to go with the fighter who seems closer to being in his prime, and for me that’s Guida. Seeing Miller struggle with the pace of the likes of Francisco Trinaldo and Anthony Pettis in particular is worrying for this fight as Guida tends to push a far quicker pace than the majority of fighters in the division, and I think that alone will be enough to force Miller to wilt, even if it’s not enough to finish him. Hopefully, the fight will be entertaining too due to the grappling skill of both men.
The Pick: Guida via unanimous decision
#3 Joaquim Silva vs. Nasrat Haqparast
While these two aren’t the biggest names in the UFC’s Lightweight division, this should make for an interesting fight as both men are aggressive, push a hard pace, and tend to put on exciting fights. It’s also quite a test for youngster Nasrat Haqparast, who came to prominence last summer with an impressive win over Marc Diakiese.
Haqparast – who resembles a smaller Kelvin Gastelum – also fights somewhat like the Middleweight contender. His biggest strength is the pace he’s able to push, and he’s also an excellent striker who puts some nice combinations together while walking his opponent down. He’s not a perfect fighter, though, and that’s what makes this fight interesting.
Firstly, we saw him really struggle with the tight ground game of Marcin Held in his promotional debut back in 2017 – that shouldn’t be a problem in this fight as Joaquim Silva isn’t really known for his ground game despite his strange ‘Netto BJJ’ nickname – but he’s also shown issues with his defensive striking, as Thibault Gouti was able to tag him on numerous occasions in their fight even if he didn’t have the power to truly hurt him.
Silva – who came off the fourth season of TUF Brazil and is the only survivor from that crop still on the UFC roster – definitely does carry power in his strikes. We saw that when he knocked out Jared Gordon last December, and when he took out Andrew Holbrook in a matter of seconds back in 2016. The problem for the Brazilian, however, is that he’s defensively porous and was losing that fight with Gordon until he managed to draw him into a brawl.
Essentially then, I’d say that this should be Haqparast’s fight to lose unless he’s drawn into a straight shootout with Silva, but even then there’s no guarantee for ‘Netto BJJ’ as Haqparast has also shown himself to have a pretty stout chin. The fact that Haqparast hasn’t stopped any opponent in his UFC run thus far is somewhat worrying, but even if he can’t change that against Silva, I think he should win this fight.
The Pick: Haqparast via unanimous decision
#4 Trevin Giles vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Quite how this Middleweight contest has made the main card I’m not too sure; Trevin Giles looked like a solid enough prospect coming into his UFC tenure with two straight knockout wins over James Bochnovic and Antonio Braga Neto, but a disappointing loss in his last outing to journeyman Zak Cummings largely burst the bubble – particularly considering Cummings outstruck him prior to his third-round victory.
Gerald Meerschaert meanwhile has shown some potential at times – his body kick win over Eric Spicely was excellent and his surprising submission of noted grappler Oskar Piechota was also impressive. But at 31 he can hardly be considered a true prospect, and back-to-back losses to Jack Hermansson and Kevin Holland – two of 11 career losses - suggest he’s simply not going to make the top fifteen any time soon.
This one could essentially go either way – both men seem pretty porous in defense but strong on offense. In the end, I’m leaning towards Giles largely because of Meerschaert’s experience; any fighter tends to slow down after a decade of action and ‘The Machine’ has been fighting since 2007 now and while he isn’t that old at 31, in fighting years he’s far more banged up than his opponent. Giles is likely still improving at 11-1 having fought for just 5 years, and for me, that should be enough to pull him through. Hopefully, it’ll be an exciting fight given the divisional relevance is lacking.
The Pick: Giles via unanimous decision
#5 Scott Holtzman vs. Dong Hyun Ma
Another fight that doesn’t necessarily have much divisional relevance, this one is on the main card largely due to the presence of Dong Hyun Ma, who has established himself as one of the most exciting fighters on the roster. Initially brought in as a late replacement on the UFC’s first card in Korea, ‘The Maestro’ made his name in an epic slugfest with Polo Reyes in 2016, and since then he’s been involved in further brawls with the likes of Damien Brown and Devonte Smith.
Sure, the Korean has lost as many UFC fights as he’s won, but in all honesty, it doesn’t really matter – he’s wildly entertaining to watch and will probably have a job with the UFC for years to come due to his brawling style.
Opponent Scott Holtzman hasn’t been anywhere near as exciting as ‘The Maestro’ in his UFC tenure thus far; 6 of his 8 fights have gone the distance and last time we saw him on the main card, he was involved in a largely dull outing against almost a mirror image in the form of Darrell Horcher.
‘Hot Sauce’ is essentially a wrestle-boxer, but his striking largely lags behind his grappling as we saw him tagged numerous times by Nik Lentz – hardly a noted striker – in their fight in February. So for me, this fight should come down to whether Holtzman can ground Ma without being dragged into trading with him on the feet.
Given that Ma comes from a pretty strong judo background – even if we haven’t seen a lot of his grappling in his UFC tenure outside of his win in 2016 over Brendan O’Reilly – I actually think he might be able to fend off the grappling of Holtzman, and on the feet I think he’s got the power and striking combinations to give ‘Hot Sauce’ a lot of problems – particularly as he’s tough as leather and won’t go down without a fight.
The Pick: Ma via third-round TKO
#6 Darko Stosic vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu
Despite the emergence of a few high-level prospects, 205lbs remains one of the thinnest divisions in the UFC right now – and so it makes sense to attempt to showcase a couple of up-and-comers here. Both Kennedy Nzechukwu and Darko Stosic lost their last fights and didn’t exactly look great, but they’ve both got some potential and could improve and become contenders yet.
Nzechukwu perhaps has the higher ceiling; an excellent athlete, he was largely taking the fight to Paul Craig in his UFC debut in March and came close to putting the Scotsman away on a couple of occasions, but he also allowed himself to be caught in some horrible positions and that’s how the fight ended, with Craig catching him in a triangle choke with seconds remaining in the fight.
Stosic meanwhile looked great when he took out the notoriously brittle Jeremy Kimball in his UFC debut, but then he was comprehensively outworked by Devin Clark in his last fight and tired out quickly, giving the decision away despite a couple of high points. While he’s clearly a powerful fighter, the lack of decisions on his record suggests he’s the type to fade unless he can pick up a quick victory.
Where the Serbian does have an advantage is in experience; he’s got 7 years and 15 fights to his name compared to just 3 years and 7 fights for Nzechukwu. Throw in the fact that despite all of his athletic gifts, Nzechukwu struggled with Craig simply because he didn’t go away quickly, and it’s somewhat worrying for him. With that said, he does have a couple of decision wins on his record – and could well have improved since the Craig fight.
This one’s tough to pick due to the fact that neither man seems to be great down the stretch and their potential remains largely untapped right now, but I think I’m leaning towards Stosic; Nzechukwu looked good in spits and spats against Craig but he felt extremely unreliable and his tendency to put himself into bad positions could cost him badly against someone who’s more violent on offense than Craig was.
The Pick: Stosic via third-round TKO
#7 The Prelims: ESPN card
All of Saturday’s preliminary fights will be shown on ESPN, meaning it’ll be a long night for anyone who wants to watch the full card. If anything though, some of the prelims seem stronger on paper than a lot of the main card.
Headlining the prelims will be prospect Mickey Gall, who faces Salim Touahri. The bloom may be off the rose of Gall after his loss earlier this year to Diego Sanchez – but he’s still an excellent grappler particularly from the top position. I like him to win here purely because we’ve seen Touahri outgrappled in both of his previous UFC fights, so I’ll go with Gall by submission.
We’ve also got an excellent Flyweight fight here between Antonina Shevchenko and Lucie Pudilova. Shevchenko struggled massively in her last fight – a loss to a much-improved Roxanne Modafferi – but I like her to take this one as despite Pudilova looking good in her last fight against Liz Carmouche, she’s still a step behind ‘Pantera’ in a pure striking sense and I’m not sure that the Czech fighter is good enough to ground her. Shevchenko by decision is my pick.
Also at Flyweight, Jordan Espinosa takes on Matt Schnell, and in an extremely thin division, a win for either man could catapult them into title contention. Espinosa looked strong in his UFC debut, a win over Eric Shelton, but Schnell has been a pleasant surprise over the last few years and for me is one of the most improved fighters on the roster. Assuming his re-drop to 125lbs goes fine I’ll take him to win a decision.
Another Flyweight fight sees Lauren Murphy face Mara Romero Borella. Murphy is a real veteran who’s been fighting since 2010, and she’s solid in all areas with a big experience advantage, but Borella has perhaps been the more impressive of the two as of late, and given Murphy has appeared to be slowing down in her recent fights, I’m going with a mild upset and taking the Italian Borella to win by decision.
Finally in yet another Flyweight encounter (!) newcomers Miranda Granger and Hannah Goldy face off. I won’t lie – I know next to nothing about both of these women and I’ve never seen either fight outside of clips. Given Goldy came from Dana White’s Contender Series and looks like an exciting striker you’d have to suspect the UFC want her to win, but Granger appears to be a dangerous grappler. With that said her takedowns don’t look too great, and Goldy appears to be the superior athlete. I’ll take Goldy by decision but this could go either way.
