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The UFC returns to the ESPN network, rather than the ESPN+ streaming service this weekend, for their first show broadcast on the channel since March’s Gaethje vs. Barboza event. This time the show comes from Minneapolis, Minnesota, and we’ve got a pretty big Heavyweight fight in the main event.
Initially planned to be headlined by a rematch between former Welterweight champions Robbie Lawler and Tyron Woodley, the main event was changed to Junior Dos Santos vs. Francis Ngannou when Woodley suffered a hand injury. And you know what? I think I prefer the new main event, even if the card overall isn’t that strong.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos.
#1 Francis Ngannou vs. Junior Dos Santos
Now it seems like the chances of a return to the UFC for Brock Lesnar are dead in the water and a rematch between champion Daniel Cormier and the man he dethroned, Stipe Miocic, has been booked for UFC 241, you’d probably have to assume that the winner of this fight should be in line for the next title shot. Anything can happen in the UFC of course, but logic would certainly suggest that either Ngannou or Junior Dos Santos has more than earned a crack at the gold.
Cameroon’s Francis Ngannou famously already had his first title shot back in January 2018, and to say he failed miserably would be an understatement. ‘The Predator’ had looked unstoppable coming into his fight with Miocic, destroying the likes of Alistair Overeem and Andrei Arlovski, and it felt like the UFC were practically ready to crown him as their next champion. In reality, though, there were a lot of unanswered questions surrounding Ngannou, most of them centered around his defensive wrestling and his cardio.
Miocic answered both of those questions and neither was positive for Ngannou. The champ was able to survive Ngannou’s early barrages, and the Cameroonian quickly tired out and succumbed to Miocic’s takedowns and ground-and-pound, losing a lopsided decision. A fight against the equally powerful-but-limited Derrick Lewis was supposed to right the ship for Ngannou, but instead, he appeared to have lost his mojo entirely and shied away from the majority of the exchanges to end up losing another decision.
Ngannou has since got back into the saddle in style, knocking out both top prospect Curtis Blaydes and former Heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez in a matter of seconds, but it’s hard to take many conclusions from either of those fights; Ngannou’s always had the power in his fists to take anyone on the planet out like that, and we still don’t really know how well he’ll respond to adversity down the stretch.
Dos Santos, on the other hand, has suffered a lot of adversity in his long UFC career. Debuting back in 2008 with a stunning KO of Fabricio Werdum, ‘Cigano’ cut a path of destruction through everyone put in front of him until he knocked out Velasquez to claim Heavyweight gold in 2011. His title reign was short-lived, however; he stopped Frank Mir in his first defense but was then thoroughly beaten by Velasquez in their rematch, and again in their subsequent trilogy fight.
Worse for the Brazilian, Velasquez appeared to write the book on how to beat him; back Dos Santos straight up into the fence, rough him up in the clinch and give him no time to use his footwork and boxing skills. Miocic – although he came out on the wrong end of a contentious decision – and Overeem both had success against JDS using this method, and when a rematch with Miocic ended with the Brazilian badly beaten in under 3 minutes, it looked like his career at the top was over.
Surprisingly though, after taking more than a year off to heal up, Dos Santos has turned things around with 3 straight wins. Blagoy Ivanov, Tai Tuivasa and Lewis have all been thoroughly beaten by JDS, although like Ngannou, none of the three were able to really test whether his traditional weak points had been worked on.
This is a genuinely fascinating fight in that both men have the power in their fists to take out the other pretty quickly, and that naturally makes it more difficult to pick. In the end, though, I’m siding with Ngannou, for a number of reasons.
Firstly, ‘The Predator’ is less shopworn than Dos Santos, and while JDS has overcome some adversity in his recent fights – Tuivasa appeared to have him in some trouble at one point – he hasn’t faced someone with the dangerous skills of Ngannou in a long time. Lewis is perhaps as powerful a hitter, but he’s nowhere near as nuanced at setting up his big shots, as Ngannou did in his fight with Overeem for instance.
Secondly, I feel like while Dos Santos – almost purely a striker, and a boxer at that – simply doesn’t have the kind of tools required to really test Ngannou’s vulnerability to takedowns, ‘The Predator’ certainly has the kind of footwork that would allow him to corral JDS into the cage and test his own vulnerability. If he can back JDS up that way and hit him hard, the fight is likely over.
Strangely enough, Dos Santos’s best plan of action might well be to attempt to turn the fight into a low-percentage striking bout, aiming to lull Ngannou into a slow pace and simply out-box him, but even then I’m not sure that would work; the gunshy Ngannou seems to have been banished once again, thankfully for the fans.
I expect JDS to last longer than Blaydes and Velasquez did, simply because he doesn’t tend to rush forward as those fighters did, and Ngannou – a counterman at heart – might find the adjustment to backing Dos Santos up hard, to begin with. But at some point, I think he’ll back the Brazilian into the cage, and from there the fight will go swiftly downhill for the former champion.
The Pick: Ngannou via first round TKO
#2 Joseph Benavidez vs. Jussier Formiga
It’s surprising to see a non-title Flyweight bout this far up a card in 2019; to be honest many people probably didn’t expect to see male Flyweights competing in the UFC at all by June. But evidently plans have changed, and so it’s expected that the winner of this fight will face Henry Cejudo for the 125lbs title at some point in the future; either that or a fight for the vacant title should Cejudo decide to focus solely on his Bantamweight career now.
At any rate, this is a rematch from a 2013 fight that saw Joseph Benavidez knock out Jussier Formiga in the first round, and I’d bet that if anyone had told fans at the time that the two would be rematching for a potential title shot some six years down the line, they’d probably have been laughed at.
That feeling comes more from Formiga than Benavidez, who probably would’ve held the UFC title by now had it not been for the dominant reign of Demetrious Johnson, a reign famously broken by Cejudo last summer. In fact, there’s probably an argument that Benavidez should’ve been given the nod in his inaugural title fight with Johnson back in 2012, but then ‘Mighty Mouse’ answered the question as to who was superior with a violent knockout in their 2013 rematch.
Benavidez is quite old for a smaller fighter now at 34 years old, and he’s definitely slowed down somewhat, although if any fighter could afford to slow down slightly it’s him, as in his prime he was one of the fastest men to ever step into the Octagon. That slowdown was evident in a tight decision loss last year to Sergio Pettis, but if anyone thought Benavidez was done, his recent wins over Alex Perez and Dustin Ortiz probably made them think again, as he looked as good as he’s ever looked in those fights.
Formiga is another senior citizen at 125lbs; also 34 years old, the Brazilian came into the UFC in 2012 with a big reputation as the division’s premier grappler, but knockout losses to Benavidez and John Dodson seemed to highlight a huge weakness for him. Not only was he an unnatural, stiff striker, but he was also apparently glacially slow in comparison to superior athletes like Dodson and Benavidez.
Since the Benavidez loss though, Formiga has been impressive. His striking game has come on leaps and bounds now to the point that he was able to hold his own with the likes of Pettis and Deiveson Figueiredo, and while he’s still not a great athlete, he’s now able to use his improved striking to set up his takedowns.
On the ground, the Brazilian is still an absolute wizard, too. His back control game is arguably the best in the UFC, period, and if he’s able to come close to getting a rear naked choke sunk – as Ulka Sasaki and Ben Nguyen both found out – the fight is likely to be over moments later.
The way this fight should go is quite simple, really: if Formiga’s striking has improved enough to the point where he’s able to have some success with Benavidez standing, then he could well rattle the American to the point where he’s able to get a takedown. And even if Formiga can’t submit the Team Alpha Male star, he could well keep him under control to earn a decision.
If he’s not able to stand with Benavidez though, then the fight likely ends in the same way it did in 2013 – with Formiga out cold. It’s a trickier one to pick than you might think simply because Benavidez isn’t the best striker technically – he’s very fast and hits very hard, but he does leave himself open somewhat.
With that said, he’s still a downright fantastic wrestler, and for as much as Formiga has improved his stand-up, he’s still not very fast for a 125lber and the fighters he’s beaten – Figueiredo, Pettis, Ortiz, et al – simply aren’t as quick as Benavidez either. Throw in the fact that power is the last thing to leave a fighter, and I like Benavidez’s chances here, although I wouldn’t count Formiga out either.
The Pick: Benavidez via second-round TKO
#3 Demian Maia vs. Anthony Rocco Martin
Although you’d have to say he’s been more successful than his smaller counterpart – gaining two UFC title shots over his 12-year Octagon stint – there are a lot of parallels between Demian Maia and Jussier Formiga. Both are Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu wizards who work best primarily from back control, and neither man is the fastest or the best athlete in the UFC.
Maia is 41 now and last year, it looked like we were finally seeing the beginning of a downward spiral for the Brazilian. A failed title shot against Tyron Woodley in 2017 was followed by losses to Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman, and all three fights followed the same pattern; Maia was unable to get a takedown on the superior wrestler and was largely beaten up standing by a quicker, more explosive athlete.
He did manage to pull off a win in February, choking out Lyman Good in a vintage performance, and that hints at a simple fact about Maia: against fighters who aren’t good enough to avoid his takedown, even excellent athletes, he’s still essentially deadly. But if you can stop his takedown, he’ll gas out quickly and largely becomes a target.
The question here then is whether Anthony Rocco Martin is a good enough wrestler to stop the takedown, and also whether he’s smart enough to avoid grappling with Maia and keep the fight standing.
A jack-of-all-trades type, Martin has come into his own since a 2018 move to 170lbs. Once a hulking Lightweight, it was clear that the big weight cut was draining him far too much, meaning his gas tank and chin were both questionable at 155lbs. Those issues seem to have been solved at Welterweight, and since the move, he’s 4-0.
Maia is by far his toughest test to date, though. His other opponents all had glaring weaknesses, and while Maia does too, it’s a weakness that’s very hard to test for anyone but truly excellent wrestlers. Martin is a stout wrestler himself but let’s be honest, he isn’t in the same league as an Usman or a Covington.
Worryingly for me too, while he did comfortably outstrike grappling expert Sergio Moraes in March – showing an impressive output throughout the fight too considering Moraes’ unorthodox style and constant pressure – he also gave up a takedown in each round. That isn’t advisable against Maia, who is far more accomplished than Moraes when it comes to grappling in MMA.
Martin has the striking skill to win this fight but I’m not convinced he hits any harder than Usman or Woodley and so he’ll have to follow their blueprint if he wants the victory. I’m just not sold on him having the defensive wrestling skill to survive, though, and he isn’t a pressure fighter like Covington who will force Maia to empty his gas tank early.
I’m betting that Maia can get the takedowns that he needs here; even if he can’t submit Martin he’s skilled enough to simply keep his younger foe under control enough to gain a decision win. But it’s Demian Maia, so I’m going with another submission for him.
The Pick: Maia via second-round submission
#4 Roosevelt Roberts vs. Vinc Pichel
Evidently, the UFC decided there was room for two ‘Predators’ on this card, as lanky Lightweight Roosevelt Roberts returns to face former TUF contestant Vinc Pichel. We last saw Roberts – a graduate of Dana White’s Contender Series – in April, as he outpointed the unheralded Thomas Gifford for a decision win, his second in the UFC proper.
Roberts’ best attribute right now is his frame. At 6’1” he’s a remarkably tall 155lber, and he uses that frame to his advantage, pecking at his opponents from range with his striking and using his length to get into advantageous positions on the ground. Gifford simply couldn’t deal with such an awkward opponent, while Darrell Horcher fell prey to his long arms with a nasty guillotine choke.
Pichel meanwhile is more of a case in frustration. He’s 11-2 in MMA, 4-2 in the UFC and his only losses came to ultra-tough wrestlers Rustam Khabilov and Gregor Gillespie. He looked excellent in his TUF run, showing off some powerful grappling and striking skills, and he pushed Al Iaquinta to a very tight decision in their fight on the show.
Essentially, he could’ve been a contender. But at 36 years old, he just hasn’t fought enough since 2012 to ever gain any momentum. No fights between May 2014 and June 2017 essentially ruined him, and while he’s still tough enough and extremely strong for 155lbs, he now lacks the explosive athleticism really needed to succeed in the UFC’s shark tank.
This is an interesting test for Roberts; Pichel is a very hardened veteran and while his record isn’t extensive, he’s been around the block a long time and does hold a victory over a similarly lanky striker to Roberts in the form of Anthony Njokuani, who was never allowed the room to work his striking as Pichel simply blanketed him and beat him up for 15 minutes.
Could the same thing happen to Roberts? Sure, if he doesn’t play his cards right or he’s less talented than his earlier fights have suggested. But at 36 years old and with a litany of injuries behind him, I just find it hard to trust Pichel to win a fight against a hot up-and-comer in 2019.
Roberts isn’t going to take Pichel down and smash him on the ground as Gillespie did, but he’s going to be a very awkward opponent to handle and even if ‘From Hell’ can close the gap, I could see Roberts snaring him in a submission using those long arms. If this goes the distance it’s likely to be Pichel with his hand raised, but I’m betting on the prospect to take out the veteran in this one.
The Pick: Roberts via third round submission
#5 Drew Dober vs. Polo Reyes
Neither of these Lightweights are likely to be bothering the UFC title picture any time soon, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have a place on the roster. Both men have been involved in plenty of exciting fights over their UFC tenure and on a weaker card like this, a potential brawl between the two should make for a solid addition to the main card.
The last time we saw Drew Dober, he came up short against Beneil Dariush despite stunning the grappler pretty badly in the first round. It was Dober’s UFC career in a nut-shell essentially; he’s got decent skills everywhere and hits hard enough to be given a shot in any fight, but he’s just not quite good enough to jump to the elite level. Which is fine, of course – Dober is a uber-tough gatekeeper and the UFC will always need fighters like that.
Reyes meanwhile has made his name as almost a pure brawler ever since he emerged into the UFC from the second season of TUF: Latin America back in 2015. His 2016 brawl against Dong Hyun Ma was a stone-cold classic, with both men exchanging huge punches until the Korean simply couldn’t stay conscious. His loss to James Vick showed that he can’t simply exchange wild punches with everyone and win, while Damir Hadzovic exposed the holes in his ground game a few months ago, but in general, he’s a threat to anyone simply due to his reckless nature.
In my opinion, this one should come down to the choices that Dober makes; if he decides to stand and bang with Reyes, then it’s anyone’s fight – both men have pretty solid chins, both men can hit hard and neither has shown much fear from inside the pocket.
But the smart course of action for Dober would probably be to use his underrated wrestling to take Polo Reyes down; Hadzovic was able to do it with little problem and worked Reyes over from the top position heavily, and I don’t see any reason why Dober wouldn’t be able to replicate that gameplan.
Based on his previous fights it’s somewhat of a question mark as to whether he’ll be able to do that – play the smart game, that is – but I’m thinking he will and he’ll have enough to outwork Reyes for a clear decision in what should be a fun fight to watch.
The Pick: Dober via unanimous decision
#6 Alonzo Menifield vs. Paul Craig
You’ve got to feel sorry for Paul Craig in a way. A relatively non-athletic 205lber facing off against incredibly hard hitters for the most part, the Scotsman appeared to be on his way out of the UFC following losses to Tyson Pedro and Khalil Rountree, but then pulled off one of the best upsets of 2018, submitting hot prospect Magomed Ankalaev with literally one second remaining in the third round of their fight, after taking a beatdown in the minutes that preceded.
Craig followed that win with a loss to Jimmy Crute in a back-and-forth grappling match, but then surprised another more athletically gifted fighter when he tapped out newcomer Kennedy Nzechukwu in a pretty sloppy fight in March.
Once again then, he’s faced with an explosive, powerful – but less experienced – opponent in Menifield. A veteran of Dana White’s Contender Series, Menifield debuted in the UFC proper in January by taking out fellow newcomer Vinicius Moreira in the first round with some violent punches.
Ridiculously huge and thickly muscled for a 205lber, Menifield hits like a truck, as we witnessed when he knocked out his Contender Series opponent Dashawn Boatright in just 8 seconds. Unfortunately for Craig, he also appears to have some grappling skill judging on his footage, as he’s shown some strong takedown defense and also has a rear naked choke win on his ledger.
Anyone can be submitted, as we saw when Craig tapped a tremendous grappler in Ankalaev, but I think the Scotsman is in trouble here; of all the previous opponents he’s faced in the Octagon Menifield seems to be most like Rountree, who just took Craig out with some quick and explosive strikes early on. I just don’t see how Craig can stand up to Menifield’s power, basically.
The Pick: Menifield via first round KO
#7 The Prelims: ESPN card
All of Saturday’s preliminary fights are scheduled for ESPN as well, meaning fans won’t have to switch channels if they want to watch the entire card.
Headlining the prelims are Light-Heavyweights Eryk Anders and Vinicius Moreira. Moreira is a grappling specialist but I worry for his chances here; Anders is still very raw, but if nothing else he hits incredibly hard and has some solid takedown defense, too. Anders by TKO is my pick.
At Lightweight, Jared Gordon takes on Dan Moret in a somewhat tricky fight to pick given both men have lost their last two fights and neither has really looked great in the process. Gordon at least has a win over a strong fighter in Hacran Dias, so I’ll take him to win a decision.
Justin Ledet returns at 205lbs to take on newcomer Dalcha Lungiambula, a South African fighter who if nothing else looks physically powerful. His footage shows a fighter who’s massively raw, though – very strong but very sloppy, too. Ledet is the more technical striker and with his UFC experience I’ll take him to win a decision, but a win from Lungiambula would probably be more entertaining.
Strawweights Emily Whitmire and Amanda Ribas clash, with Ribas making her UFC debut. Ribas looks like a solid enough prospect but Whitmire has much more experience in the UFC – 3 fights there with 2 wins in a row – and so I’ll take her to grind out a win probably by decision.
At Heavyweight, Maurice Greene faces off with Junior Albini in what could turn out to be a super-sloppy fight. Albini might be on a 3-fight losing streak but he’s been facing pretty good opponents, while Greene to me is just too slow to really make an impact in the UFC. Albini via TKO is my pick.
Newcomer Journey Newson steps in on late notice at 135lbs to take on Ricardo Ramos and despite Ramos losing his last fight, I can’t see him having any issues here – he’s still a very dangerous prospect and Newson hasn’t fought anyone nearly as good before. I like Ramos via TKO.
Finally at Featherweight Jordan Griffin faces newcomer Vince Murdock, who’s taken the fight on just over two weeks’ notice. Griffin didn’t look great in his UFC debut – a loss to Dan Ige – but due to the late notice for Murdock as well as the fact that he’s lost his last two, I’m taking Griffin via TKO here.
