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#2 UFC Flyweight Title: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Jennifer Maia

Can Jennifer Maia be the fighter to dethrone the great Valentina Shevchenko?

Right now, it’s hard to argue that the UFC has a more dominant champion than Valentina Shevchenko. The Bullet is 19-3 in MMA with a UFC record of 8-2, and her only losses in the Octagon have come to UFC Bantamweight and Featherweight champion Amanda Nunes.

More to the point, since dropping to 125lbs in early 2018, she’s been absolutely unstoppable. Shevchenko destroyed the overmatched Priscila Cachoeira in her divisional debut and then claimed the vacant UFC title by easily beating Joanna Jedrzejczyk.

Since then, she’s reeled off three title defenses, making each one look easy. She took out Jessica Eye and Katlyn Chookagian with extreme violence, and while her win over Liz Carmouche was dull, it was a ridiculously one-sided fight.

Essentially, the only thing preventing Shevchenko from being considered the best pound-for-pound fighter on the planet is that she’s suffering from the same issue as Demetrious Johnson once did – a lack of credible challengers.

As the UFC women’s Flyweight division is so thin, Shevchenko’s challengers have all been largely underwhelming – usually coming off just a couple of wins in the division after dropping down from Bantamweight.

So what of this show’s challenger, Maia? The Brazilian at least has a long and storied history as a Flyweight. She was the long-standing champion in Invicta’s Flyweight division before joining the UFC and has largely been fighting at 125lbs for her entire career.

Maia is experienced – she’s 18-6-1 overall and 3-2 in the UFC – and has plenty of dangerous skills. But can she use them to defeat Shevchenko? On the feet, she’s a very capable Muay Thai stylist. Fighting out of the famed Chute Boxe academy, she comes into fights with the style you’d expect from that camp, with a lot of aggression in her punches, knees, and kicks.

However, a lack of power has let her down, particularly in the UFC. She’s only got four KO’s to her name and was outpointed by Katlyn Chookagian in a fight that largely took place standing, basically because she simply couldn’t really hurt the former UFC title challenger.

Against Shevchenko, a precision striker with plenty of power in her shots – Maia is likely to find herself in trouble if she decides to kickbox in this fight. Not only does Shevchenko hit harder, but she’s technically a far superior striker too.

That means that to win this one, Maia’s probably going to have to take the fight to the ground. She’s a genuine Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and picked up her last UFC win impressively, submitting Joanne Calderwood with an armbar.

But again, has she really demonstrated at any point that she could outgrapple Shevchenko? In all honesty, the answer is no. Not only is The Bullet an extremely underrated wrestler – she stuffed the takedowns of Carmouche and threw Jedrzejczyk around like a rag doll. But she’s also very dangerous on the ground.

Shevchenko dominated Cachoeira on the mat, and in her Bantamweight days, even tapped out Julianna Pena, who’s a tremendous grappler in her own right. Sure, Nunes was able to hold her down in their first meeting, largely winning the fight that way. But even she found herself in trouble on the ground in the final round.

Basically, it’s hard to see Maia having any kind of success here. She’s a great fighter in her own right, but like all of the Flyweight division right now, she’s overmatched against Shevchenko.

In all honesty, The Bullet should be able to win in any fashion that she chooses. I suspect she’ll look to keep the fight standing and either outpoint Maia or put her away if she can land cleanly.

Either way, the chance of a new UFC champion being crowned this weekend is highly unlikely.

The Pick: Shevchenko via third-round TKO