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This weekend marks the third UFC show of 2021, and depending on how things go, it could well turn out to be the biggest of the year. The show in question? UFC 257, of course.
The main event of the card sees the return of Conor McGregor, as he rematches Dustin Poirier. And in the co-main, Michael Chandler makes his UFC debut against Dan Hooker.
Overall, it’s a fantastic card, and the small amount of fans in attendance at Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Arena should be in for a treat.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 257: McGregor vs. Poirier 2.
#1 UFC Lightweight division: Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier
So naturally, given that this is McGregor’s first UFC appearance in a year, this fight is a pretty huge deal. However, it’s also far bigger than his last fight, a sub-minute thrashing of Donald Cerrone.
Not only was that fight at 170lbs – not McGregor’s natural weight – but Cerrone, no offense intended, was past his prime and always felt like ripe pickings for The Notorious One.
On the other hand, Poirier is one of the most dangerous men in the UFC’s packed Lightweight division. Sure, McGregor easily knocked him out in the first round when they did battle as Featherweights at UFC 178 in 2014. But things have changed a lot since then.
The Diamond was a good fighter then. He had an excellent ground game and carried knockout power, but his overall striking was a little undeveloped. And more importantly, he appeared to be psyched out by McGregor before the fight had begun.
The fight was Poirier’s last outing in the UFC at 145lbs. Since moving up to 155lbs, he’s won 10 of his 13 fights in the UFC, with his only losses coming to Khabib Nurmagomedov and Michael Johnson.
Along the way, The Diamond has developed a pretty scary pressure-boxing game based around walking his foe down to land heavy punches. Poirier’s boxing game has come on leaps and bounds from a technical standpoint, but where he really stands out is in terms of his killer instinct.
Basically, if Poirier gets an opponent hurt, he’s likely to finish them. And in the UFC, he’s taken out the likes of Anthony Pettis, Justin Gaethje, and Eddie Alvarez, swarming them and leaving them no room to breathe, let alone survive.
However, despite Poirier’s improvements, I’m still not too sure that he matches up all that well with McGregor.
The UFC’s biggest-ever star, it’s quite easy to forget that The Notorious One got to the top of the UFC through his skills inside the Octagon as well as his charisma and ability on the mic.
McGregor cut a swathe through the UFC’s Featherweight division upon his arrival in 2013, winning six straight fights – including his KO of Poirier – en route to claiming Jose Aldo’s UFC Featherweight title.
Sure, it’s arguable that McGregor’s ground game was always a weakness. Still, the truth is that during his entire UFC tenure, only Nurmagomedov and Nate Diaz have been able to expose that.
And notably, nobody’s been able to outstrike the Irishman, point-blank. Not only does McGregor carry incredible power in his punches – particularly in his left hand – but he’s a creative striker, as we saw in his UFC win over Cerrone, which was set up with shoulder strikes and a head kick.
However, McGregor isn’t just a power striker. Few fighters in the UFC have possessed the timing and accuracy of the Irishman. And it’s that skill, combined with his power, that took him to his wins over Aldo, Poirier, and Alvarez.
That’s why I’m favouring The Notorious One here. Sure, he hasn’t fought in the UFC very much at all since 2016, and he’s had plenty of outside distractions. But put quite simply, stylistically, he represents a bad match for Poirier.
That’s because, for all of his improvements in the UFC, Poirier’s pressure-boxing game won’t work if McGregor doesn’t give him a target to really hit. And as we’ve seen before, nobody has the counter-striking skills of The Notorious One.
It might anger the fans who are probably dying for him to lose, but I suspect the result will be the same as it was in 2014 here.
The Pick: McGregor via first-round KO
#2 UFC Lightweight division: Michael Chandler vs. Dan Hooker
The UFC’s latest marquee acquisition, Michael Chandler, is making his UFC debut here after a long and successful tenure in Bellator. While fighting under the UFC’s biggest competitor's banner, Chandler held their Lightweight title on three occasions and won the majority of his fights. Overall, his 21-5 record is outstanding.
But will he be able to become a UFC title contender? Truthfully, it’s a big question mark. Firstly, it’s hard to shake the idea that Chandler has left this move a little too late. He’s no longer a red-hot prospect. His legendary fight with Eddie Alvarez – the one that put him on the map – took place in November 2011, nearly a decade ago.
And in the years that have followed, he’s taken tons of damage and has suffered numerous injuries. Of his five losses, three saw him finished by strikes.
And while he’s clearly a superb athlete, the other worry is that his style makes him feel almost like a throwback. Chandler is a fighter in the classic wrestle-boxer mold, comparable to fighters like Gilbert Melendez, Tyson Griffin, Frankie Edgar, and Tatsuya Kawajiri, who ran roughshod over their respective divisions a decade ago.
But can that style cut it in 2021 in the UFC? It’s highly debatable. A grappler in Khabib Nurmagomedov has dominated the UFC’s Lightweight division. But elsewhere, it’s full of venomous finishers with more rounded overall games than Chandler.
Hooker is perhaps not one of the outright elite fighters in the division, but The Hangman is very close. A rangy, lanky striker who will have a 4” reach advantage on Chandler, the New Zealand native looks to use his kicks and long punches to keep his opponent at distance.
He’ll use his leg kicks and jabs to wear a foe down but is also comfortable in stepping forward and winging heavy combinations to do real damage. And more importantly, Hooker is insanely tough. He weathers damage like few other UFC fighters, and his cardio is equally impressive.
In his prime, I’d have given Chandler a fair shot in this fight, if not outright picked him. However, in 2021, I’m not too sure. Chandler is 34 now and may well be past his athletic prime. If that’s the case, he should be concerned.
A younger, hungry UFC contender like Hooker is going to want to make his name by beating the former Bellator champ. And unless Chandler can land a bomb or constantly secure takedowns – which is doubtful – I think he’ll do it by chopping him down across three rounds.
The Pick: Hooker via unanimous decision
#3 UFC 257: The Main Card
As is expected on a UFC pay-per-view, there are three more fights on the main card on Saturday.
One may well act as a pseudo-top contenders’ fight, as Jessica Eye and Joanne Calderwood do battle in the UFC Flyweight division. Eye is unlikely to gain a fight with UFC champ Valentina Shevchenko with a win, but Calderwood may well, given the UFC pegged her as a challenger in 2019.
This is likely to be a striking match. Both women are competent grapplers, but neither prefers to fight on the ground. Eye is more of a straight-ahead boxer than Calderwood’s Muay Thai-based style – a lot of kicks and clinch work.
I’m slightly favoring Calderwood here. Jo-Jo is varied enough to work Eye over from the outside. And while she’s been hurt by strikes before, power isn’t Eye’s strong point, as she hasn’t knocked an opponent out since 2011. I’m going with Calderwood by decision.
At Lightweight, Matt Frevola faces Ottman Azaitar. This is a baffling main card pick as there are better fights on the prelims, but the hope may be a showcase for Azaitar. The Bulldozer is an absolutely ruthless finisher, with 13 wins and 12 finishes to his name.
He’s also 2-0 in the UFC and knocked both Teemu Packalen and Khama Worthy silly in under a round combined.
Frevola has been a solid fighter thus far into his UFC career, but a knockout loss to Polo Reyes is a red flag here. If The Steamrolla can get Azaitar into the later rounds, then all bets are off. But I feel like The Bulldozer will pick up another KO in this one.
Finally, Strawweights Marina Rodriguez and Amanda Ribas face off. This is a genuinely great fight, as the two women have a combined UFC record of 6-1-2.
Overall though, I’m favoring Ribas. Rodriguez is a fantastic striker, but her draws with Cynthia Calvillo and Randa Markos – as well as her loss to Carla Esparza – exposed a definite weakness in her ground game.
Meanwhile, Ribas has proven to be an excellent grappler thus far into her career, but she also showed off a very solid striking game in her win over Mackenzie Dern. With that in mind, Ribas via decision is my pick.
#4 UFC 257: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC Lightweight division: Nasrat Haqparast vs. Arman Tsarukyan
UFC Middleweight division: Brad Tavares vs. Antonio Carlos Junior
UFC Bantamweight division: Julianna Pena vs. Sara McMann
UFC Light Heavyweight division: Khalil Rountree Jr. vs. Marcin Prachnio
UFC Middleweight division: Andrew Sanchez vs. Makhmud Muradov
Catchweight (150lbs): Movsar Evloev vs. Nik Lentz
UFC Flyweight division: Amir Albazi vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov
