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This weekend sees the UFC return to pay-per-view, as UFC 263 takes place from Glendale, Arizona.
UFC 263 features two title fights as well as the return of one of the promotion's biggest stars in Nate Diaz, making it a must-see show overall.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 263: Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori 2.
#1 UFC middleweight title: Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori
This UFC middleweight title fight is a rematch of a fight that took place in April 2018. And outside of Israel Adesanya’s failed foray into the light heavyweight division, it still stands as the closest anyone’s come to defeating him in the UFC.
So can Marvin Vettori go one step further this time and actually beat Adesanya, taking his UFC middleweight title in the process? It’s an interesting question.
On one hand, this might be the perfect time to fight Adesanya. He’s coming off the first loss of his UFC and MMA career - a humbling defeat at the hands of Jan Blachowicz.
Sure, the loss came at 205lbs and wasn’t a brutal, career-changing knockout or anything like that. But it proved to Adesanya that he’s human, isn’t unbeatable, and definitely still has holes in his game – particularly in his grappling.
Of course, Vettori already came relatively close to beating 'The Last Stylebender' in their 2018 fight, largely using his clinch work and takedowns to push Adesanya harder than he’d been pushed before.
However, based on strength of opposition, it’s arguable that Vettori hasn’t really earned this title shot in the first place.
He’s won five fights in the UFC since that initial meeting with Adesanya, but those wins came over Cezar Ferreira, Andrew Sanchez, Karl Roberson, Jack Hermansson and Kevin Holland.
The latter two opponents are probably the strongest, and yet Holland took the fight on late notice and Vettori failed to finish either man.
Adesanya, meanwhile, has beaten the likes of Robert Whittaker, Paulo Costa, Yoel Romero and Kelvin Gastelum – all of whom would probably be favoured over Vettori. And more to the point, all four men were largely embarrassed by Adesanya’s ridiculous timing, power and accuracy on the feet.
At best, Vettori will hope to replicate Blachowicz’s gameplan. But while he’s shown himself to have a stout chin, he definitely doesn’t possess the punching power of the Polish fighter, nor is he big enough to really outmuscle 'The Last Stylebender'.
Therefore, it seems tricky to imagine 'The Italian Dream' finding a path to victory here. Simply put, Adesanya has improved more than Vettori has in the years since their last fight, meaning the likelihood here is that he returns to form with a knockout.
The Pick: Adesanya via second-round KO
#2 UFC flyweight title: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno
Like the main event, this UFC title fight is also a rematch, but the initial meeting between Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno took place much more recently than Adesanya vs. Vettori.
The duo met with Figueiredo’s UFC flyweight title on the line at UFC 256, and after an absolute war, the fight was declared a majority draw. It’s no surprise that the UFC have booked an immediate rematch here.
Not only does Figueiredo have no other obvious opponent, but the initial fight was so good that there’s probably more hype on this fight than any other UFC flyweight title clash in recent memory.
So who will walk away with the gold this time around?
It’s definitely worth noting one key point. And that’s the fact that Figueiredo would’ve won the original fight handily had he not had a point deducted in the third round for a low blow.
Essentially, Moreno put up an excellent fight. But overall, it was 'The God of War' who was landing the heavier shots and doing the most damage.
Sure, he gave up some takedowns, but on most fans’ scorecards, Figueiredo won the first, second and fifth rounds and should’ve been handed the decision.
It seems doubtful that either man can make many adjustments coming into this fight. In particular, it appeared that Moreno simply had nothing more to give once the clash at UFC 256 ended.
The bigger question is whether that crazy war will have a long-lasting effect on either man. If it does, based on the punishment he took, you’d have to worry about whether Moreno can be the same fighter going forward.
And when you consider Figueiredo’s ruthless finishing skills – and the fact that he took the UFC 256 booking on such short notice – it’s hard not to lean towards the Brazilian retaining his title, probably finishing the Mexican in the process.
The Pick: Figueiredo via third-round submission
#3 UFC welterweight division: Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards
After over a year away from the UFC, UFC 263 sees the return of one of the promotion’s biggest stars in the form of Nate Diaz.
Incredibly, should he win here, there’s every chance that Stockton’s favourite son could find himself in line for the next shot at Kamaru Usman’s UFC welterweight title, too.
Leon Edwards isn’t the most bankable fighter in the 170lbs division, but it’s hard to dispute that he’s one of the best.
The native of Birmingham, UK has not lost a fight since falling to Usman back in 2015. Since that time, he’s defeated eight opponents in the UFC, including Donald Cerrone and Rafael dos Anjos.
'Rocky' has developed his skills over those years tremendously, growing from a solid kickboxer into a far better-rounded fighter with excellent wrestling in particular.
So can Edwards use the usual Diaz kryptonite plan – leg kicks, takedowns and a refusal to be sucked into a brawl – to pick up a win here?
There’s no denying that 'Rocky' has the ability to do so. After all, Diaz is essentially a two-trick pony of sorts – an excellent boxer with a venomous ground game, but one with massive holes in the other areas of his game.
But there’s always the danger – particularly in a five-round fight like this one – that Diaz will be able to talk enough trash and sucker Edwards into his own game.
And that game is a brawl that will likely see Diaz absorb some punches to deliver far more of his own, wearing his opponent out down the stretch en route to a late TKO or decision win – or a submission if his opponent shoots a desperation takedown.
Basically, this comes down to how invested Edwards is in picking up a win rather than falling into the trap that Diaz will undoubtedly set.
If he’s fully focused on gaining a shot at the UFC welterweight title, then this should be business as usual for him – particularly as Diaz is getting no younger at the age of 36.
Overall it’s a tough one to pick, because who really knows what we’ll get when Nate Diaz shows up? However, the smart money is on Edwards.
The Pick: Edwards via unanimous decision
#4 UFC 263: The Main Card
Picks in bold
UFC welterweight division: Demian Maia vs. Belal Muhammad
UFC light heavyweight division: Paul Craig vs. Jamahal Hill
#5 UFC 263: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC lightweight division: Drew Dober vs. Brad Riddell
UFC light heavyweight division: Eryk Anders vs. Darren Stewart
UFC flyweight division: Lauren Murphy vs. Joanne Calderwood
UFC featherweight division: Movsar Evloev vs. Hakeem Dawodu
UFC bantamweight division: Pannie Kianzad vs. Alexis Davis
UFC lightweight division: Frank Camacho vs. Matt Frevola
UFC featherweight division: Chase Hooper vs. Steven Peterson
UFC lightweight division: Fares Ziam vs. Luigi Vendramini
UFC heavyweight division: Carlos Felipe vs. Jake Collier
