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The UFC visits Boston this weekend for the first time since 2019 for what should be one of the summer’s best pay-per-views.
UFC 292: Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O’Malley has taken a few injury hits, but it still looks like a fantastic card overall, complete with two title bouts.
Without further ado then, here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 292: Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O’Malley.
#1. UFC bantamweight title: Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O’Malley
While it isn’t garnering the hype of say, Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira, it’s arguable that this is one of the best title fights the UFC have put together in some time.
At this stage, Aljamain Sterling has a claim to being the best bantamweight in MMA history. He’s held his title since 2021, and while he won it under controversial circumstances – via disqualification – he’s since made three straight defenses.
‘Funk Master’ turned back the challenge of Petr Yan, stopped T.J. Dillashaw, and edged out Henry Cejudo earlier this year. Add in his previous wins over Cory Sandhagen, Pedro Munhoz and Renan Barao, and you can’t argue with his resume.
Sterling basically has no weaknesses. His cardio is phenomenal, he’s an unbelievable wrestler who can both control and submit his foes, and his striking, while not concussive, is explosive and effective.
Quite why he hasn’t earned more respect remains a bit of a mystery, to be honest.
This fight could well prove to be tricky for him, though. Outside of a 2020 loss to Marlon Vera that may or may not have been caused by a foot injury, Sean O’Malley has not tasted defeat inside the octagon.
‘Sugar’ is a passable grappler, but he lives and breathes for his striking game. O’Malley not only packs serious knockout power and killer instinct, but his grasp of range and distance is phenomenal.
Coupled in with the fact that at 5’11”, he’s tall for a 135lber, and it’s easy to see why he’s had so much success. The only question mark over O’Malley, realistically, is his lack of fights against top competition.
‘Sugar’ edged out Yan last year in a thriller, but largely due to the UFC viewing him as a potential superstar, he’s been babied somewhat, fighting lower-level foes or ageing veterans like Thomas Almeida and Eddie Wineland rather than top-ranked foes.
How does this match pan out, then? Essentially, based on the evidence we’ve seen, O’Malley’s best path to win would be to block Sterling’s takedowns and snipe at him from range, looking for a knockout.
Unfortunately for ‘Sugar’, that’s easier said than done. Not only is Sterling deceptively fast in terms of getting inside an opponent to drag them down, he’s also not exactly a poor striker in his own right.
More to the point, he doesn’t have a bad chin by any means. He’s only been knocked out twice, once by Yan’s illegal knee and once by Marlon Moraes. The latter knockout saw ‘Funk Master’ basically dive head-first into the Brazilian’s knee as ‘Magic’ threw a kick. It was a once-in-a-lifetime shot.
On the ground, meanwhile, the bout is likely to be a mismatch of sorts. If Sterling takes the back of an opponent, the fight is usually over, and while O’Malley isn’t a white belt, he wouldn’t be considered on the same level as Cejudo, Barao, or Augusto Mendes, all of whom were whitewashed by ‘Funk Master’.
If O’Malley can catch Sterling cold, he can definitely win this fight, but the chances of him doing that before ‘Funk Master’ grabs him seem slim. The pick, therefore, is Sterling via submission.
The Pick: Sterling via second-round submission
#2. UFC strawweight title: Weili Zhang vs. Amanda Lemos
While most UFC fans believe that Tatiana Suarez is probably the biggest threat to the strawweight title right now, the promotion evidently needed an opponent for champ Weili Zhang at this event.
Amanda Lemos, therefore, will take her shot at ‘Magnum’ this weekend, even though she’s actually only on a two-fight winning streak. So does the Brazilian stand any kind of chance?
It’s debatable to say the least. To be fair to Lemos, she is definitely a dangerous fighter. Since dropping to 115 pounds in 2019, she’s done well, beating high-level foes like Livinha Souza, Angela Hill, Michelle Waterson and Marina Rodriguez.
In those fights, only Hill was able to take her the distance, as she dispatched the others either via TKO or submission.
Worryingly, though, she looked miles out of her depth in her 2022 loss to Jessica Andrade. ‘Bate Estaca’ simply bullied her, submitting her in the first round with a standing arm-triangle choke.
That should be a worry for her here, as Zhang is not only a more dangerous fighter than Andrade, but she’s probably more skilled in all areas, too.
The Chinese fighter has only lost to one opponent in the UFC – the mercurial Rose Namajunas – and her second bout with ‘Thug Rose’ was incredibly hard to score.
Outside of that she’s beaten the likes of Andrade, Tecia Torres, and Joanna Jedrzejczyk in a pair of truly crazy, memorable bouts that saw her display ridiculous striking power and toughness.
Most recently, she utterly whitewashed Carla Esparza, outgrappling and submitting her in the second round with no issues whatsoever.
Any fighter good enough to earn a UFC title shot is a threat, of course, and nobody should count Lemos out here. Realistically, though, there’s no single area that she’s better than Zhang in, and so the idea of the champion losing seems highly unlikely.
The Pick: Zhang via second-round TKO
#3. UFC 292: The Main Card
In a major welterweight clash, Ian Machado Garry takes on Neil Magny. This fight would initially have seen Garry matched with Geoff Neal, but the heavy hitter was forced out last week with an undisclosed injury.
Magny is arguably a more rounded fighter than Neal, but he lacks the concussive power of ‘Handz of Steel’. That means this should be a winnable fight for Garry, who is explosive, hits hard, has amazing technique and hasn’t really shown any weaknesses yet.
Magny could test him on the ground if he can get him there, but given the late notice, it seems unlikely, particularly because Garry won’t be giving up any height. The pick is Garry via KO.
In a bantamweight bout, Marlon Vera faces Pedro Munhoz. A brutal striker with finishing skills in all areas, Vera looked to be en route to a title shot until he was derailed by Cory Sandhagen earlier this year. Despite this, ‘Chito’ is still incredibly dangerous, and it’ll take someone special to outwork him as ‘The Sandman’ did.
Can Munhoz do that? ‘The Young Punisher’ did manage to outwork prospect Chris Gutierrez in April. However, he’s much slower and more flat-footed than Vera, and given the Ecuadorian’s toughness, it’s hard to imagine Munhoz having much success here. The pick is Vera via decision.
Finally, with Cody Garbrandt’s bout with Mario Bautista cancelled, the fifth main card fight is likely to be the middleweight clash pitting Chris Weidman against Brad Tavares. This will be former champ Weidman’s first fight back since breaking his leg horrifically back in 2021.
Weidman is undoubtedly past his prime, and there’s an argument that he probably should’ve retired some time ago. However, he’s still a large, powerful middleweight with excellent grappling skills.
Thankfully for ‘The All-American’, Tavares – who has been in the UFC since 2010 – is arguably just as past his best. The Hawaiian has always been a solid fighter, but has never stood out in any one area and his durability is waning just as much as Weidman’s. This could go either way, but the pick is Weidman via TKO.
#4. UFC 292: The Prelims
Picks in bold
Ultimate Fighter 31 bantamweight final: Brad Katona vs. Rico DiSciullo or Cody Gibson
Ultimate Fighter 31 lightweight final: Austin Hubbard vs. Kurt Holobaugh
UFC middleweight bout: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Denis Tiulilin
UFC flyweight bout: Andrea Lee vs. Natalia Silva
UFC middleweight bout: Andre Petroski vs. Gerald Meerschaert
UFC flyweight bout: Maryna Moroz vs. Karine Silva
