UFC Predictions: UFC 317: Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira

One of the biggest UFC events of 2025 thus far goes down next weekend. Las Vegas' T-Mobile Arena will play host to International Fight Week, as well as this huge pay-per-view.

UFC 317: Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira will see a new champion crowned at 155 pounds, while the flyweight title will be on the line in the co-headliner.

With a deep card also featuring a number of other stars and prospects, this should be a must-see event.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 317: Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira.

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#1. UFC lightweight title: Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira

This weekend will see a new champion crowned in the lightweight division for the first time since 2022.

While it's frustrating to see Islam Makhachev simply give up his title, the UFC putting an end to fighters going on the double-champ quest is refreshing at least. It means that no title picture can be tied up in a logjam.

Case in point, Ilia Topuria started 2025 as the featherweight champ, but announced his intention to move to 155 pounds pretty quickly due to his issues making 145 pounds.

In the past, he likely would've kept the featherweight title, though, and only vacated if he failed to win the 155-pound crown. Instead, that title picture is already moving on - Alexander Volkanovski now holds the title left behind by 'El Matador'.

Topuria instead will attempt to become a two-division champion by winning this fight against former champ Charles Oliveira.

'Do Bronx' fell to Makhachev in 2022, but has since won two of his three bouts, most recently outpointing Michael Chandler.

Why has Oliveira leapfrogged Arman Tsarukyan, who prevailed over him in April last year? That one is debatable, but it feels like the promotion might be making a point to Tsarukyan, who was forced out of his own clash with Makhachev earlier this year on late notice.

So how do these two match up? On the face of things, while we know Topuria has solid ground skills and Oliveira can strike, this should be a striker vs. grappler clash.

Topuria will look to keep things standing and ping Oliveira with his powerful combinations, while 'Do Bronx' will likely be hunting for a submission should be force 'El Matador' to the ground.

The problem for Oliveira, really, is that Topuria's takedown defense is fantastic, standing at 92%. The only man to take him down in the octagon was Bryce Mitchell, and he didn't keep Topuria down for long at all.

Of course, Oliveira doesn't necessarily need to double-leg Topuria to get him into a position to tap him out. If he can get a clinch and initiate a scramble, then he's a master of finding a good position to sink a choke or some kind of joint lock.

However, the fact is that to get to the clinch, Oliveira is going to need to engage with a fighter who is not only a lethal knockout artist, but someone who can use nice angles to catch his foes with clean combinations, too.

When you consider that 'Do Bronx' does tend to get hit in his fights, that's worrying. He isn't chinny per say, as he recovered from bad knockdowns to beat Dustin Poirier, Justin Gaethje and Chandler, but he's definitely hittable.

If Topuria catches him cleanly, then, can he do what those fighters didn't and finish the Brazilian? In all honesty, the likelihood is yes.

Not only is 'El Matador' a ruthless finisher, but the power he packs is insane. Nobody had turned out the lights on Max Holloway like he did, for instance, and his knockout of Jai Herbert was downright terrifying.

Overall, then, when you take into account the fact that Topuria is already used to competing at 155 pounds, having fought there on numerous occasions before, it's easy to imagine him making a clean transition here.

Oliveira might find some success, but the chances are that he becomes another victim of 'El Matador' and his ridiculous power.

The Pick: Topuria via second-round KO

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#2. UFC flyweight title: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France

The co-headliner of this event doesn't quite have the intrigue of the top bout, despite it being for a major title.

That's because realistically, flyweight champ Alexandre Pantoja appears to have reached that sweet spot where it's hard to imagine anyone in his division dethroning him.

'The Cannibal' hasn't lost since 2020, and even that was a controversial loss to Askar Askarov. Since then he's won seven fights in a row, and this will be his fourth title defense.

Pantoja isn't a flashy fighter by any means, but he's super tough, carries heavy power in his punches, is a strong wrestler and has a top-class ground game.

Given there's no fighter with a single outstanding skill at 125 pounds right now, then, it's easy to see why Pantoja has beaten the likes of Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval to rule over the division.

So can Kai Kara-France have any success against him? In all honesty, it feels very doubtful.

It's unfair to write off any fighter who rises towards the top of their division in the UFC, and 'Don't Blink' does have plenty of skills. He's extremely quick, carries good power in his strikes, and isn't a bad grappler.

However, the New Zealand native also has four losses to his name in the octagon, including two to Moreno and one to Royval, which doesn't bode well for him given Pantoja beat both of those men.

Okay, so MMA math doesn't always work, and Kara-France does have a win over Askarov, the last man to beat 'The Cannibal'.

However, the fact is that styles make fights, and Pantoja was simply more willing to grapple with Askarov than Kara-France was, which led to the latter's victory. If Pantoja could take that fight again, he'd likely come out on top.

Kara-France's losses are more telling in that most of them came from the fact that his aggressive style can be easy to counter by more technical fighters, particularly if they can catch him coming forward.

Can Pantoja do that? Absolutely. He's already proven to be a pretty lethal counter-striker at points, most notably in his clash with Matt Schnell. Add in the big advantage he'll have on the ground, and this should be a difficult fight for Kara-France.

'Don't Blink' will be hopeful as Pantoja is 35 years old and has been through a ton of wars recently. However, he looked fantastic in his last win, and it's honestly hard to see him losing here, particularly to a fighter who isn't a hot prospect.

The Pick: Pantoja via second-round submission

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#3. UFC 317: The Main Card

In a lightweight bout, Renato Moicano takes on Beneil Dariush. After his late-notice title challenge back in the early days of 2025, this is a much more winnable fight for Moicano.

However, it's also a very important one for Dariush. Once considered one of the most feared 155 pounders on the planet, he now hasn't won since October 2022, has suffered back-to-back knockouts, and suffered a bad knee injury last year.

Whether he has much left in the tank, then, at the age of 36, is debatable. At his peak, he would've been an easy pick over Moicano as really, he was the better fighter in all areas.

The key word there is "was", though - right now, it's just hard to trust him. With that in mind, the pick is Moicano via TKO.

In a flyweight clash, Brandon Royval faces Joshua Van. Initially, this fight would've seen Royval facing Manel Kape in what was being billed as a title eliminator.

With Kape out, though, Van has stepped in on just two weeks' notice, just days after beating Bruno Silva at UFC 316.

To call this a huge risk would be an understatement. A decade ago, this kind of move probably would've put Van into the promotion's good books and guaranteed him good treatment for a stretch, but that isn't really the case these days and a bad loss could set him back badly.

Will he lose, though? He's riding a four-fight win streak and is 7-1 in the octagon overall, and does appear to have plenty of skills. Namely, he's a high-octane striker who looks to overwhelm his foes with nasty amounts of volume.

The problem for him here is the fact that Royval is a far more proven fighter overall. 'Raw Dawg' holds wins over the likes of Brandon Moreno and Tatsuro Taira, and is an utterly ruthless finisher if he gets an opponent hurt.

Van should be absolutely commended for taking this fight, but it's hard not to remember him being lit up by Charles Johnson in his only octagon loss. With that in mind, the pick is Royval via decision.

Finally, in a middleweight tilt, Jack Hermansson faces Gregory Rodrigues. This one is a decent test for Rodrigues after 'Robocop' failed in his last step up, being knocked out by Jared Cannonier in February.

Hermansson obviously isn't the concussive puncher that Cannonier has, which should give Rodrigues confidence that his heavy-handed striking approach can work here.

However, 'Robocop' is plodding, and while Hermansson isn't the best striker, 'The Joker' will enjoy a two-inch reach advantage here and knows how to use it. He's also fought far better opponents - Cannonier excluded - than Rodrigues.

With that said, the Brazilian does hit very hard, and that should be worrying for Hermansson. 'The Joker' hasn't fought in well over a year, and his losses to Roman Dolidze, Thiago Santos and Cannonier showed he's somewhat chinny. The pick, then, is Rodrigues via KO.

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#4. UFC 317: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC featherweight bout: Hayder Amil vs. Jose Delgado

UFC flyweight bout: Viviane Araujo vs. Tracy Cortez

UFC lightweight bout: Terrance McKinney vs. Viacheslav Borschchev

UFC bantamweight bout: Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima

UFC heavyweight bout: Jhonata Diniz vs. Alvin Hines

UFC welterweight bout: Niko Price vs. Jacobe Smith