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After more than a month without any UFC action, we’ve now got two UFC shows on tap to begin 2021.
Next Wednesday sees another UFC show on Fight Island, as Welterweights Michael Chiesa and Neil Magny do battle in the main event, with a further four fights on the main card.
The rest of this UFC show isn’t so strong, but it should still be well worth watching after such a gap in action.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Island 8: Chiesa vs. Magny.
#1 UFC Welterweight division: Michael Chiesa vs. Neil Magny
In a UFC Welterweight division that’s in some flux right now – largely due to UFC champ Kamaru Usman having beaten most of his potential challengers – there’s definitely a chance for either of these two men to end up in title contention with a win here.
Both are on a three-fight win streak in one of the UFC’s toughest divisions, although their schedules have been very different. Chiesa last fought a year ago, when he beat former UFC Lightweight champ Rafael Dos Anjos in an impressive showing.
Since then, Magny returned from a USADA suspension and picked up three wins in 2020, out-pointing Li Jingliang, Anthony Rocco Martin, and Robbie Lawler.
Interestingly, though, none of those fights will have prepared Magny for the kind of game that Maverick brings. While Jingliang and Martin and jack-of-all-trades types and Lawler is a striker, Chiesa is one of the most dangerous grapplers in the entire division.
The winner of TUF 15 isn’t a highly-credentialed Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace, like, say, Demian Maia. But he’s huge – how Chiesa ever made 155lbs is anyone’s guess, and has excellent takedowns. Once Chiesa gets an opponent down, particularly if he takes their back, he’s almost impossible to shake off.
Chiesa’s striking still leaves a lot to be desired. At 6’1” with a 75.5” reach, he could well develop a long, dangerous boxing style. But instead, he tends to reach a little too much with his somewhat stiff punches.
However, that’s never really cost him, largely because he’s so good at closing the distance to unleash his grappling game.
On the other hand, Magny has developed a great striking game based on an even longer reach – 80”. He’ll happily pepper his opponent with jabs, can abuse them in the clinch if he can close the distance, and has a solid wrestling game with decent takedown defense.
The problem that The Haitian Sensation has had throughout his UFC career is that while he’s got no real weaknesses, he’s not the very best in any one area. His striking is technically strong, but he doesn’t have concussive power. And while he’s a solid grappler, he’s not immune to dangerous submission artists – having last been submitted by Dos Anjos in 2017.
That means that Magny can be beaten – often with surprising ease – by true specialists far better than him in one area.
Overall, I’m favoring Chiesa here. He’s exactly the kind of specialist that’s given Magny problems in the past. And while Magny has solid takedown defense, I don’t think he can prevent Maverick from closing the distance.
Once Chiesa gets inside an opponent, particularly if he can grab hold of them, he’s almost impossible to stop. And if he takes Magny’s back, I’ve got absolutely no doubt that he’s skilled enough to close this fight out. I’m taking Maverick to win by first-round submission, making it look surprisingly easy in the process.
The Pick: Chiesa via first-round submission
#2 UFC Welterweight division: Warlley Alves vs. Mounir Lazzez
This Welterweight clash has been put together on relatively late notice by the UFC, but it should at least provide some excitement.
The winner of TUF Brazil 3, Alves came into the UFC with an insane amount of hype, and early on, he lived up to it. He reeled off four wins in a row – even choking out Colby Covington – but shortly after, the wheels began to fall off.
Bryan Barberena wore down Alves at UFC 198, essentially exposing a major hole in his game – cardio. And since then, the book has largely been written on the Brazilian. Unless he’s able to thoroughly outclass an opponent for the full fight, or put them away early, then he tends to slow down and allow them back into the fight.
His UFC record of 7-4 is still pretty solid. But based on his early days, he should’ve been a title contender by now, and that simply hasn’t happened.
So can he beat Lazzez? It’s tricky because we have so little to go on when it comes to the native of Tunisia. A pinpoint striker nicknamed The Sniper, Lazzez debuted in the UFC last year with a record of 9-1.
He looked good in his debut, outpointing Abdul Razak Alhassan, but the fight wasn’t without its issues. Against the tougher UFC competition, Lazzez’s vaunted striking power didn’t look as good as it had on his highlight reel. And while Alhassan didn’t test it, there are plenty of questions around his ground game, too.
For me, this looks like the kind of fight that Alves should be able to win. He’s genuinely excellent on the ground, is an explosive, dangerous athlete, and can definitely finish an opponent.
And while he does have losses on his record, they all came at the hands of hardened UFC veterans with far more experience than Lazzez has. Overall, I think if Alves comes in aggressively and looks to get the Tunisian to the ground in an attempt to submit him, he’s more than capable of pulling it off.
The Pick: Alves via first-round submission
#3 The Main Card: UFC on ESPN+ card
The UFC will present three more fights on this show's main card in three different divisions.
In the Light Heavyweight division, Isaac Villanueva faces Vinicius Moreira. Entering into the UFC last year, Villanueva has thus far struggled, losing both of his fights by TKO. It is worth noting, though, that this will be his first outing at 205lbs.
Moreira has done even worse – he’s 0-3 in the UFC and has been finished three times. However, the Brazilian is a dangerous grappler who simply doesn’t have the greatest defense against strikes, particularly when they come from explosive athletes.
I’m actually favoring Moreira here, though. Villanueva has looked plodding at best in his earlier fights, and if Moreira can get inside and get him down, I suspect he can probably tap him out. Moreira via submission is my pick.
In the Women’s Flyweight division, former UFC title challenger Roxanne Modafferi takes on Viviane Araujo. One of the most popular fighters in the division, Modafferi has been around for years now, making her MMA debut way back in 2003.
The Happy Warrior is a genuinely excellent grappler, but her lack of strength and athleticism have historically let her down. However, in more recent years, she’s improved dramatically in that area, thanks to a hardcore conditioning program. Thanks to it, she’s also beaten the likes of Maycee Barber and Andrea Lee.
Araujo has a solid record of 9-2, and she’s also 3-1 in the UFC. But I’m not sure how skilled she actually is. Her win over Alexis Davis was impressive, but it’s also arguable that Davis was miles past her best at the time.
If Araujo turns out to be much quicker or stronger than Modafferi, there’s a chance she can win this one. But I’m leaning towards The Happy Warrior's experience to win the day, meaning Modafferi via decision is my pick.
Finally, Lerone Murphy and Douglas Silva de Andrade throw down in the Featherweight division. This one has the potential to be a hell of a firefight.
De Andrade is aggressive to a fault and will assault his opponent with wild combination striking. And while Murphy only has two fights in the UFC, he’s been quite impressive. He knocked out Ricardo Ramos last year and took a controversial split draw against Zubaira Tukhugov in his UFC debut.
It was notable that Tukhugov’s success in that fight came on the ground, though – on the feet, the native of the UK clearly landed the best shots. However, will his boxing-heavy style work as well against the Tasmanian Devil-style attack of de Andrade?
For me, this depends on whether Murphy gets right into de Andrade’s face. Fighters who’ve done that in the past – Rob Font, Petr Yan, Tukhugov – all managed to beat him. It’s not an impossible task, but the fact that D-Silva is also a capable grappler makes me lean towards him in a tough one. I’ll take de Andrade via decision.
#4 The Prelims: UFC on ESPN+ card
Picks in bold
UFC Bantamweight division: Ricky Simon vs. Gaetaho Pirrello
UFC Flyweight division: Su Mudaerji vs. Zarrukh Adashev
UFC Middleweight division: Markus Perez vs. Dalcha Lungiambula
UFC Flyweight division: Francisco Figueiredo vs. Jerome Rivera
UFC Lightweight division: Mike Davis vs. Mason Jones
UFC Flyweight division: Matt Schnell vs. Tyson Nam
UFC Flyweight division: Victoria Leonardo vs. Manon Fiorot
UFC Middleweight division: Omari Akhmedov vs. Tom Breese
UFC Bantamweight division: Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Sergey Morozov
