UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Island 8: Chiesa vs. Magny predictions and picks

#2 UFC Welterweight division: Warlley Alves vs. Mounir Lazzez

Warlley Alves has never quite reached his massive potential in the UFC.

This Welterweight clash has been put together on relatively late notice by the UFC, but it should at least provide some excitement.

The winner of TUF Brazil 3, Alves came into the UFC with an insane amount of hype, and early on, he lived up to it. He reeled off four wins in a row – even choking out Colby Covington – but shortly after, the wheels began to fall off.

Bryan Barberena wore down Alves at UFC 198, essentially exposing a major hole in his game – cardio. And since then, the book has largely been written on the Brazilian. Unless he’s able to thoroughly outclass an opponent for the full fight, or put them away early, then he tends to slow down and allow them back into the fight.

His UFC record of 7-4 is still pretty solid. But based on his early days, he should’ve been a title contender by now, and that simply hasn’t happened.

So can he beat Lazzez? It’s tricky because we have so little to go on when it comes to the native of Tunisia. A pinpoint striker nicknamed The Sniper, Lazzez debuted in the UFC last year with a record of 9-1.

He looked good in his debut, outpointing Abdul Razak Alhassan, but the fight wasn’t without its issues. Against the tougher UFC competition, Lazzez’s vaunted striking power didn’t look as good as it had on his highlight reel. And while Alhassan didn’t test it, there are plenty of questions around his ground game, too.

For me, this looks like the kind of fight that Alves should be able to win. He’s genuinely excellent on the ground, is an explosive, dangerous athlete, and can definitely finish an opponent.

And while he does have losses on his record, they all came at the hands of hardened UFC veterans with far more experience than Lazzez has. Overall, I think if Alves comes in aggressively and looks to get the Tunisian to the ground in an attempt to submit him, he’s more than capable of pulling it off.

The Pick: Alves via first-round submission