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After an excellent show last weekend, the UFC is back at Las Vegas’ UFC APEX facility this weekend for their 13th show there since the Covid-19 pandemic started.
This weekend sees a main event in the Light Heavyweight division between Glover Teixeira and Thiago Santos, and plenty will be at stake given the high ranking of both men. Elsewhere, a number of former UFC champions and title contenders make this show one to watch.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Vegas 13: Santos vs. Teixeira.
Also, listen to the Cage Theory podcast for more on Anderson Silva's retirement and for a look ahead to the UFC Vegas 13: Santos vs Teixeira card!
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#1 UFC Light Heavyweight Division: Thiago Santos vs. Glover Teixeira
Along with fights like Ion Cutelaba vs. Magomed Ankalaev and Ciryl Gane vs. Shamil Abdurakhimov, this fight almost sums up the UFC’s run during Covid-19 in a nutshell. Santos and Teixeira have been booked to face off three times previously – twice during the pandemic – only for the fight to be postponed due to both men testing positive for the virus.
Hopefully, things hold together this time, and the Brazilian duo can finally clash inside the Octagon. On paper, at least, this is one of the better fights that the UFC could’ve put together in the Light Heavyweight division.
Santos has not fought since his failed title challenge at UFC 239 in July 2019. That fight saw Marreta push Jon Jones about as hard as anyone had done previously. And had the Brazilian not suffered a severe knee injury early on, who knows what might’ve happened?
Prior to that, he’d been on a terrifying run – defeating four straight opponents, the last three by KO or TKO. In fact, his last win before the Jones fight came by KO against current UFC Light Heavyweight champ Jan Blachowicz.
Essentially, Marreta is a brute-force striker, preferring to use heavy kicks to the legs and head as well as powerful, sweeping hooks. He’s massively offensive in his style, but his win over Blachowicz – and a more patient approach against Jones – also showed that he can be more cerebral than he’s given credit for.
He’ll clearly be looking to knock his opponent out again in this weekend’s fight – but despite 15 of his 21 career wins coming by KO or TKO, it’ll be a tricky task for him. Teixeira is a real veteran, and despite being 41 years old, he still appears to have a lot to offer at the top of the UFC’s 205lbs division.
A title challenger back in 2014 – also losing to Jones – Teixeira is currently on a four-fight win streak, most recently dispatching of Anthony Smith in ruthless fashion. A ridiculously heavy hitter, Teixeira’s style is more boxing-oriented than Santos’. He loves to chain combinations together and can also open up with heavy blows from the clinch.
The biggest difference between these two Brazilian fighters is in their ground game. Teixeira is fantastic on the mat. A genuine Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, he has eight career wins by submission – five in the UFC – and from the top position, in particular, he’s a destroyer. If Teixeira gets full mount on an opponent, they’re in deep trouble.
On the other hand, Santos has shown some odd flashes of an improving ground game – most notably in his 2018 win over Kevin Holland – but has also had issues there too. He was inexplicably submitted in 2016 by Eric Spicely, for instance, and lost TUF Brazil fights to William Macario and Leonardo Santos when they took him down.
However, where Santos has an advantage here is in terms of speed. Teixeira is a heavy-handed striker, but he’s also one of the more plodding in the UFC’s 205lbs division. That makes him inherently hittable, and while only Anthony Johnson and Alexander Gustafsson have KO’d him, he’s been hurt by plenty of other fighters.
Essentially then, this fight should go one of two ways. Either Santos will use that speed advantage to land a powerful blow and take Teixeira out early on, or Glover will play it smart, take Santos down, and finish him off on the ground.
It’s a really tricky one to pick, basically because it’s so easy to imagine either man winning. However, based on the fact that Marreta has slowly improved his takedown defense, is five years younger than Teixeira, and is less shopworn, I’m going with him. He might not pick up an early finish, but I think he’ll hurt Teixeira in probably the second round and finish him off violently.
The Pick: Santos via second-round TKO
#2 UFC Heavyweight Division: Andrei Arlovski vs. Tanner Boser
It’s hard to believe it, but Arlovski’s second run in the UFC – following his return to the promotion in 2014 – has now lasted almost as long as his initial one from 2000 to 2008. And while he hasn’t gotten his hands on the UFC Heavyweight title like he did during that first run, he’s still had plenty of success.
Since 2014, The Pitbull is 8-9 in the UFC, and every time he’s been written off, he’s somehow managed to bounce back. Once considered a chinny fighter, it’s hard to make that accusation now given he’s only been KO’d twice in his last 11 fights. And he’s now more of an ultra-tough veteran gatekeeper who can still beat plenty of up-and-comers.
So the question here is, what is Boser’s ceiling? Is he plodding enough for Arlovski to dance around and out-work with his boxing skills? Or is he more cut from the same mold as Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Augusto Sakai, both of whom were able to defeat Arlovski in recent fights?
If you were judging The Bulldozer on his early UFC fights, you’d probably go with the former. Boser won a decision over Daniel Spitz in his UFC debut and was then comfortably out-worked by Ciryl Gane in his second appearance. In those fights, he looked like your classic sloppy Heavyweight – plodding, slow, but with a decent amount of power in his hands.
2020 has changed that, though. Boser came into his fight in June against Philipe Lins in much-improved shape and smashed the Brazilian in just under three minutes. And a month later, in even better shape, he did the same to Raphael Pessoa.
Most notable was the Canadian’s hand speed. He put together some incredible combinations in those wins, one of which left Lins unconscious – something Arlovski was unable to achieve when he faced off with the Brazilian in May.
Arlovski will definitely be a trickier test for Boser than Lins or Pessoa. He’s much quicker than both men, has far more experience, and is probably a superior boxer too. However, over the years, he’s developed a habit of relying a little too much on his big right hand and has been known to use a somewhat lazy – and risky – jab.
That should be a concern against Boser, who seems to be improving at a dramatic rate and already has extremely quick hands. It’d be very easy to see a situation arise where The Bulldozer slips an Arlovski jab and turns his lights out with a rapid-fire counter combo.
So can he do it? I’m going with yes. Boser is 29 years old – young for a Heavyweight – and while his overall record of 19-6-1 is nothing to brag about, his recent form in the UFC has been stunning.
Beating Arlovski doesn’t mean what it once did – obviously, it didn’t lead Sakai or Rozenstruik to the UFC title – but it’d still be a huge feather in the cap of a fighter like Boser. With that in mind, I’m taking The Bulldozer to win this one by KO.
The Pick: Boser via first-round KO
#3 UFC Middleweight Division: Ian Heinisch vs. Brendan Allen
This UFC Middleweight clash was originally set to go down back in June, but an injury to Heinisch put paid to it. Allen instead faced late replacement Kyle Daukaus – who turned out to be much tougher than anyone would’ve imagined – and won by decision.
Heinisch is undoubtedly a trickier test for him. The Hurricane doesn’t exactly have a stunning UFC record – he’s 3-2 – but overall, he’s looked better than that record makes him out to be. A fantastic wrestler, Heinisch was a two-time All-American in college but ended up in trouble with the law and spent time in jail before changing his ways.
It’s that wrestling background that’s made his UFC career thus far a success. Heinisch was able to use his takedowns – and the threat of them – to outwork both Cezar Ferreira and Antonio Carlos Junior for upset wins. More recently, he KO’d Gerald Meerschaert with his underrated, heavy-handed striking game.
Heinisch’s losses are also worth looking at, though. Against Derek Brunson, he found himself outworked in largely all areas by a seriously tough veteran – and should have nothing to be ashamed of.
A loss to Omari Akhmedov was more disappointing, though. That fight saw Akhmedov largely outwork Heinisch by pushing a torrid pace and mixing a lot of volume striking in with takedowns. It was a poor loss and essentially hinted at a ceiling in the UFC for The Hurricane.
So is Allen above that ceiling? It’s definitely possible. All In is already 3-0 in the UFC and has looked pretty excellent every time he’s been inside the Octagon. He choked out the currently streaking Kevin Holland, knocked out Tom Breese, and was able to outwork the afore-mentioned Daukaus for a decision.
Allen looks like an explosive striker who hits very hard, and fighting out of the Roufusport camp. He’s clearly technically proficient too. That may give him an advantage against the cruder Heinisch on the feet – so can he fend off the takedowns of a notable wrestler?
It’s questionable, as we saw Daukaus take him down on numerous occasions in their back-and-forth clash. However, it’s worth noting that Allen is a genuinely excellent grappler too, with more submissions on his ledger than knockouts – including his rear-naked choke tapout of Holland.
For me, as long as he can avoid the explosive attack that Heinisch is likely to bring early on, this is Allen’s fight to lose. I believe All In can go to the top of the UFC Middleweight division, and I’m not sure that Heinisch is the man to stop his run just yet.
The Pick: Allen via unanimous decision
#4 UFC Bantamweight Division: Raoni Barcelos vs. Khalid Taha
The UFC doesn’t tend to put together fights that look like showcases for one fighter, but this appears to be the exception to that rule. Taha clearly isn’t a bad fighter by anyone’s standards. The Warrior is 1-1 in the UFC, with his last victory being turned into a No Contest after he tested positive for a banned diuretic.
However, Brazil’s Barcelos is clearly one of the fastest rising talents in the UFC’s Bantamweight division. He’s currently 4-0 in the UFC, but given that the two wins that put him into the promotion came over UFC veterans Bobby Moffett and Dan Moret, he may as well be 6-0.
A genuinely talented Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, Barcelos is a fantastic grappler – but it’s his heavy strikes that have brought him the most success in his career thus far. He’s 16-1, and eight of those wins have come by KO or TKO – including two such victories in the UFC.
The Brazilian hasn’t fought in the UFC now for almost a year. But when we last saw him, he stifled the dangerous Said Nurmagomedov with his grappling, taking a decision win. Thankfully for him, Taha is also coming off quite the layoff.
He hasn’t fought since September 2019 due to that positive drug test, meaning that cage rust could be an issue for both men – or that the long layoff for both men might cancel itself out when they face off.
Overall, Taha will definitely be a somewhat dangerous test for Barcelos. He hits hard – as we saw when he KO’d Boston Salmon at UFC 236 – and he’s also got a couple of submission wins to his name, too. However, I’m not convinced that he’s close to Barcelos in any single area from a technical standpoint.
However, it’s in grappling that there seems to be the biggest talent gap. It’s true that Barcelos’ only career loss came via rear-naked choke. But that was also back in 2014, and he’s since put together a winning streak of eight fights.
Overall, as he’s 33 years old, it’s hard to see Barcelos reaching the very top of the UFC’s packed 135lbs division, but he’s definitely climbing the ladder and may well begin to bother elite-level opponents soon. Taha just doesn’t seem like the type of fighter to stop that run, and so I’m taking Barcelos via submission.
The Pick: Barcelos via first-round submission
#5 UFC Strawweight Division: Claudia Gadelha vs. Yan Xiaonan
Aside from the main event, this might be the fight on this card with the most implications for a UFC title picture. When all is said and done, Gadelha might well go down as one of the best fighters to never hold UFC gold.
The Brazilian entered the UFC as an undefeated prospect, and only a failure to defeat prime Joanna Jedrzejczyk stopped her from winning the UFC Strawweight title back in 2016.
In the years that have followed, though, she’s begun to look more vulnerable. Gadelha is a solid striker, but she’s not the most explosive on the feet and is largely hittable at times. That issue led her to losses against Jessica Andrade and Nina Ansaroff, and with different judges, it could’ve led to a loss to Angela Hill in May.
On the ground is where Claudinha really thrives, as she showed when she submitted Karolina Kowalkiewicz and dominated Jessica Aguilar. The problem is that while she’s a strong wrestler, she isn’t physically powerful enough to run through her opponents and take them down as easily as, say, Tatiana Suarez.
That could give her some serious difficulties against Xiaonan. Fury has a record of 12-1, but more impressively, she’s gone 5-0 in the UFC thus far. Sure, all of those wins came by decision, but in each of them, she’s shown some razor-sharp striking skills, particularly her use of a ramrod jab.
It was that jab that led her to her most recent UFC win over Kowalkiewicz. Essentially, Xiaonan smashed the Polish fighter’s face with her jab, keeping her at bay for the entire fight and never really letting her out of first gear. It was a fantastic showing that cemented Xiaonan as a UFC title contender.
Gadelha is undoubtedly Xiaonan’s toughest test yet. She’s more experienced, particularly at the top of the UFC, and has a better ground game than anyone Fury has faced yet. However, it’s also fair to say that Gadelha’s issues with technical strikers – particularly those who can keep her at distance – gives Xiaonan a great chance of winning here.
If Xiaonan can keep Gadelha at the end of her strikes as she did to Kowalkiewicz, this should be her fight to lose. And given the issues that Claudinha had against Hill, I suspect that Xiaonan is more than capable of carrying out that kind of gameplan.
I expect Gadelha to become highly frustrated in this one as she ends up stuck at the end of Xiaonan’s jab for 15 minutes. I’m going with Xiaonan by decision here – elevating her into UFC title contendership in the process.
The Pick: Xiaonan via unanimous decision
#6 The Prelims: UFC on ESPN+ card
The UFC will present four preliminary bouts on ESPN+ this weekend, although that could increase to six. Featherweight Arnold Allen was initially booked to fight Jeremy Stephens on this card. Still, with Stephens unavailable due to injury, a new opponent has not been identified for the UK-based prospect at the time of writing.
Bantamweight Gustavo Lopez is also looking for a new opponent after Felipe Colares withdrew due to a positive Covid-19 test. Like with Allen, whether the UFC can find a new foe for him is up in the air right now.
At the top of the prelim card, then, sits a Middleweight clash between Trevin Giles and Bevon Lewis. Giles is coming off a win over James Krause – one that righted the ship for him following two straight losses – while Lewis most recently picked up his first UFC win over Dequan Townsend.
I’m favoring Giles here. He appears to be the stronger athlete, and more importantly, he’s a better grappler with plenty of finishing ability. He also hits pretty hard, as his UFC win over Antonio Braga Neto proved. Lewis is solid, but to me, his UFC run might’ve come a little too soon. Giles by TKO is my pick.
At Welterweight, Max Griffin faces Ramiz Brahimaj. Griffin has struggled in the UFC since arriving in 2016. Although he’s 3-6 overall, it’s worth noting that he did perform well against Alex Oliveira and Mike Perry, two tough opponents. Brahimaj, meanwhile, is debuting in the UFC with a record of 8-2. Grappling is his strongest point – he’s picked up all eight of his wins via submission.
If Brahimaj can get Griffin to the ground here, he may well have some success. However, it’s also worth noting that his best win is probably William Macario, who essentially washed out of the UFC. Therefore, due to Griffin’s UFC experience and strength of opposition, I think he’ll have enough to outwork the newcomer for a decision.
At Featherweight, longtime veteran Darren Elkins takes on Uruguay’s Luiz Eduardo Garagorri. This promises to be an exciting fight as Garagorri is a wild striker, while Elkins usually lives up to his Damage nickname by putting on barnburners.
Unfortunately for Elkins, it’s also been a long time since he last won a fight – January 2018, to be exact – and at the age of 36, his best years may be behind him. Garagorri is a beatable opponent – his grappling looked porous in his last UFC outing, a loss to Ricardo Ramos – but he’s also got power in his strikes. I think he’ll hurt Elkins and end up outpointing him.
In the UFC’s Heavyweight division, Marcos Rogerio de Lima returns to take on Alexander Romanov. This fight was initially scheduled for one of the UFC’s September shows but fell apart when de Lima tested positive for Covid-19.
For that initial fight, I picked de Lima, and I stand by that pick. Romanov is an undersized Heavyweight, and while he’s finished all of his e victims, he’s also not faced anyone close to the level of Pezao. Due to the gap in experience, I’m going with de Lima via KO.
At Bantamweight, Giga Chikadze faces newcomer Jamey Simmons. This is a curious fight as Chikadze is on quite the winning streak - he's won his last six fights and is 4-0 in the UFC - while Simmons is largely an unknown.
This seems like a simple one to call. Simmons clearly has some talent, but Chikadze will likely be a step too far for him. He's got insane cardio, even for a 135lber, and pushes a torrid pace with both his kickboxing and grappling. This might even be a chance for him to secure his first UFC finish. Chikadze via TKO is my pick.
Finally, at Bantamweight, Sarah Moras takes on Vanessa Melo. A solid grappler, Moras has a lot of skills but struggles with superior athletes. That explains her poor UFC record - she's 3-5 - but in reality, she's pretty dangerous, particularly on the ground.
Melo, meanwhile, has shown very little in her brief UFC career. She's 0-3 in the Octagon, meaning this is likely the last chance saloon for her. Given that she isn't an explosive athlete herself, I like Moras in this one, probably by submission
