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The UFC is back in Las Vegas this weekend for UFC Vegas 20. And like with last week’s show, there is a major Heavyweight clash in the main event.
UFC Vegas 20 sees highly-ranked Heavyweight contenders Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Ciryl Gane facing off. The co-main sees Nikita Krylov face Magomed Ankalaev.
Overall this looks like a pretty solid show with plenty of cool fights to look forward to.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Vegas 20: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Ciryl Gane.
#1 UFC Heavyweight division: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Ciryl Gane
Although Jon Jones has reportedly been promised a shot at the winner of the upcoming UFC Heavyweight title fight between Stipe Miocic and Francis Ngannou, the result of last weekend’s UFC main event has added intrigue to this clash.
After Derrick Lewis – who has already had a failed title shot – defeated Curtis Blaydes, there’s a definite chance that the winner of this fight could leapfrog The Black Beast and find themselves next in line behind Jones.
Of course, that scenario would be much more likely if Gane were to win. The hulking Frenchman is 4-0 in the UFC, and thus far, no opponent has come close to even testing him.
Rozenstruik, on the other hand, was knocked out cold by Ngannou last May. And so if The Predator were to find himself the UFC Heavyweight champion, it’d be hard to justify a title shot for ‘Bigi Boy.’
So how will this fight play out?
On paper, at least, it looks like a battle of strikers. Suriname’s Rozenstruik is a kickboxer with plenty of credentials, carrying a record of 76-8-1 in that sport. In MMA, meanwhile, he’s 11-1, with five of those wins coming in the UFC.
Gane has a background in Muay Thai himself, going 7-0 on the French regional scene. He’s only been fighting MMA since 2018, but he’s already 7-0 in that sport too.
However, the clear distinction between the two fighters is in their grappling. Rozenstruik has knocked out most of his opponents quickly, but Alistair Overeem was able to work him over with relative ease on the ground.
Sure, Bigi Boy eventually knocked the UFC veteran out, but it came at the very end of the fifth round. Had he not landed a haymaker, Overeem likely would’ve won a comfortable decision.
Gane, on the other hand, has already shown himself to be comfortable on the ground. Two of his UFC wins have come via submission – one by heel hook in the third round of a fight he dominated on the feet. And he had one tap-out to his name prior to his UFC tenure.
Add in the fact that Gane has a 4” reach advantage and appears to be more adept in the clinch than Rozenstruik, and I think this is probably his fight to lose.
He’ll have to be very careful in the sense that Rozenstruik has the power to put any opponent out with one single shot – he’s knocked foes out with jabs in the UFC.
However, if Gane can ensure that Bigi Boy has to fear both the takedown and the clinch, then he should be able to back him up enough to give him little more than a puncher’s chance. The most likely outcome will probably be ‘Bon Gamin’ taking Rozenstruik down for either a TKO or submission.
The Pick: Gane via second-round TKO
#2 UFC Light Heavyweight division: Nikita Krylov vs. Magomed Ankalaev
This fight promises to bring some fireworks to the UFC this weekend.
The UFC Light Heavyweight division has become known as one of the promotion’s thinnest. But it’s hard to dispute that Ankalaev, who is 5-1 in the Octagon, is probably 205lbs’ best prospect.
Krylov isn’t really a contender at this point. He’s simply shown too many holes in his game. But his incredible energy, aggression, and ability to fight in all areas make him an exciting fighter to watch.
Those skills should also make him an interesting test for Ankalaev. The native of Dagestan has faced aggressive opponents before. But none have been so willing to throw caution to the wind as Krylov tends to be.
The main strength possessed by The Miner is his grappling skill. Sure, Krylov can strike and has a number of KO’s to his name, but he’s almost certainly more adept at submissions.
The native of Ukraine has 15 tap-outs on his ledger, including four in the UFC. And he’s extremely tricky to deal with in the scramble, being willing to risk position to attempt a submission.
That means he’s somewhat comparable to Paul Craig – the only fighter thus far to defeat Ankalaev in the UFC.
With that said, it’s worth noting that Ankalaev hammered on Craig for three rounds before falling prey to a last-gasp triangle choke. It was a bad mistake on the Dagestani’s behalf, but Craig is arguably a more durable fighter than Krylov is.
Overall, the big difference here is sharpness. Krylov’s skills are all dangerous, but The Miner remains a somewhat sloppy fighter, even on the ground.
Ankalaev, meanwhile, is all clean technique, whether that’s landing pinpoint strikes on the feet – like his KO of Ion Cutelaba at UFC 254 – or his supreme wrestling skill.
I simply can’t see Krylov being able to force the scrambles he’ll need to win this one, and he’s probably outgunned slightly on the feet too. With that in mind, I’m going for a TKO win for Ankalaev.
The Pick: Ankalaev via first-round TKO
#3 UFC Vegas 20: The Main Card
UFC Vegas 20 will feature four more fights on its main card.
In the Flyweight division, Montana De La Rosa faces Mayra Bueno Silva. Both of these women are largely grappling-based, and so this should probably come down to who looks the strongest on the ground.
De La Rosa has far more UFC experience and thus far hasn’t really been beaten by a grappler. Her last loss – against Viviane Araujo – came when she simply couldn’t get the fight to the ground. Silva seems more likely to engage her there, and so with that in mind, I’m taking De La Rosa via decision.
In a Welterweight bout, Randy Brown faces Alex Oliveira. This one is tricky to pick as both men are very inconsistent, capable of looking brilliant in one fight and terrible in the next. And both lost their last outing, with Oliveira stunningly falling to newcomer Shavkat Rakhmonov.
Overall, Brown’s aggression could definitely push Cowboy. But if the Brazilian is at his best, he’s probably slightly too skilled for the Jamaican. Oliveira via TKO is my pick.
At Bantamweight, Pedro Munhoz faces Jimmie Rivera in a fight re-scheduled from UFC 258. These two fought in 2015, with Rivera edging a decision. And while El Terror hasn’t been on the best form recently, I suspect he’ll come out on top again here.
Essentially, his overall striking skills and ability to push a nasty pace should prove too much for the more boxing-based Munhoz, particularly as it’s doubtful that the Brazilian can take Rivera down. Rivera by decision is the pick.
Finally, Featherweight veteran Alex Caceres takes on the equally experienced Kevin Croom. Croom has only one fight thus far in the UFC, but he impressed hugely with a guillotine choke win over Roosevelt Roberts.
Caceres, meanwhile, is on a three-fight win streak and should almost certainly prove to be a trickier opponent for The Hard-Hitting Hillbilly. Croom is clearly a very dangerous finisher, but Caceres’ UFC experience should give him enough to weather an early storm and win a decision.
#4 UFC Vegas 20: Preliminary Bouts
Picks in bold
UFC Lightweight division: Alexander Hernandez vs. Thiago Moises
UFC Bantamweight division: Sabina Mazo vs. Alexis Davis
UFC Light-Heavyweight division: Alonzo Menifield vs. William Knight
UFC Bantamweight division: Vince Cachero vs. Ronnie Lawrence
UFC Light-Heavyweight division: Dustin Jacoby vs. Maxim Grishin
UFC Catchweight bout: Raoni Barcelos vs. Marcelo Rojo
UFC Strawweight division: Angela Hill vs. Ashley Yoder
