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The UFC returns to its APEX facility once again this weekend, presenting UFC Vegas 22: Derek Brunson vs. Kevin Holland.
Like most recent non-pay-per-view cards, UFC Vegas 22 is pretty low on name value, but it does have the potential to be high on action.
With that in mind, here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Vegas 22: Derek Brunson vs. Kevin Holland.
#1 UFC Middleweight division: Derek Brunson vs. Kevin Holland
All things considered, there’s an outside chance that the winner of this one could fight for the UFC Middleweight title next, particularly if that winner is Kevin Holland.
‘The Trailblazer’ was one of the UFC’s hottest fighters in 2020. He won five fights during the year, equalling the UFC record for the most wins in a calendar year.
And it’s not like he was fighting bums, either. Of course, nobody is going to mistake Charlie Ontiveros for a UFC title contender, no offense intended.
But Jacare Souza is renowned as one of the best fighters to never fight for a UFC title, and Holland destroyed him at UFC 256.
Holland’s overall UFC record is also sneakily good. Since arriving in the promotion in 2018, he’s gone 8-2, with his only losses coming at 205lbs to the much larger Thiago Santos and to Brendan Allen in a fight that now feels like an anomaly.
Holland basically has all of the tools needed to reach the top of the UFC. At 6’3”, he’s got a strong frame for a Middleweight, and his 81” reach is one of the longest in the division, too.
He’s an excellent kickboxer with a solid chin, and while his wrestling and takedown defense isn’t the greatest, he does possess a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and has six tapouts to his name.
And more to the point, anyone who can take out 'Jacaré' on the ground like Holland did isn’t a bad grappler by any means.
So does all of this mean he should beat Derek Brunson easily? Actually, it’s not that easy to call.
One of the most seasoned veterans in the UFC’s Middleweight division, Brunson has been with the promotion since 2012 and has put together a record of 12-5.
Due to all of that experience, Brunson’s strengths and weaknesses are now well known.
One of the most explosive athletes in the division, Brunson has fantastic takedowns and hits like a truck.
Essentially, the majority of his success comes from his ability to cover ground at a much faster rate than his opponents. This allows him to either take his opponent down, or land a heavy shot to knock them out.
Where Brunson’s fallen down in the past has been with a tendency to rush things against calmer, more technical strikers.
Ignoring his somewhat bogus loss to Anderson Silva, Brunson’s last three defeats all came when he attempted to rush an opponent and simply got drawn into a firefight with a more accurate striker, who then knocked him out.
Could this be the case with Holland? It’s definitely possible.
After all, Brunson has been with the UFC for nearly a decade now and he’s basically never changed his style.
Sure, he weathered more of a storm than he usually does when he beat Edmen Shahbazyan last year, but he still got hurt early on due to his tendency to rush in.
If Holland can avoid Brunson’s early rush, there’s no reason why he can’t use his sizeable 4” reach advantage to pick him off, as long as he remains calm.
There’s definitely the chance that Brunson will simply run right through Holland in explosive fashion. But the momentum right now seems to be with Holland, and so the smart pick for now is that he’ll be able to pick Brunson off as he comes forward.
The Pick: Holland via first round TKO
#2 UFC Lightweight division: Gregor Gillespie vs. Brad Riddell
On paper at least, this UFC Lightweight clash feels very much like the classic meeting of the grappler vs. the striker.
One of the most credentialed amateur wrestlers in recent UFC history, Gillespie was a National Champion in his collegiate days and is also a four-time NCAA Division I All-American.
In the UFC, his wrestling skills have fared very well for him. ‘The Gift’ basically ran through his first six UFC opponents, but certainly didn’t blanket them ala Josh Koscheck or Jon Fitch.
Sure, Gillespie definitely looked to take the likes of Glaico Franca and Vinc Pichel down. But he also showed a penchant for recklessly striking, relying on his wrestling to allow him to dictate where the fight would take place.
Some observers would argue that his style caught up with him last year when he was KO’d by Kevin Lee at UFC 244.
However, the head kick that Lee used came out of nowhere and would’ve knocked out any opponent. Furthermore, Gillespie hadn’t even moved out of first gear at the time.
However, with over a year on the shelf behind him, it’ll be interesting to see how he approaches this fight with Riddell.
The Australian is basically as pure of a kickboxer as you’ll find in the UFC right now. ‘Quake’ is 3-0 in the UFC and 9-1 in MMA overall since fully moving into the sport in 2016.
Riddell’s striking has looked fantastic in the UFC thus far, with wins over Jamie Mullarkey, Magomed Mustafaev and Alex da Silva Coelho under his belt.
That win over Mustafaev is probably the most telling, though. Mustafaev has plenty of grappling credentials in his own right and was able to get Riddell down on multiple occasions.
However, he couldn’t hold the Aussie down and found himself being largely picked apart on the feet.
So can Gillespie succeed where Mustafaev couldn’t? And if he can’t, is he outgunned standing?
The answer to the latter question is probably yes. ‘The Gift’ hits hard, but he simply doesn’t possess the technique and combination ability that Riddell does.
However, he’s also a far superior wrestler to Mustafaev, and if he comes out with a mind to wrestle, it’s hard to imagine Riddell really stopping the takedown.
With that in mind, this one is probably all on Gillespie. If he can continually drag Riddell down and wear him out, then it should be his fight to lose. But if he decides to stand with ‘Quake’ for a prolonged period, he’s likely toast.
Given that Riddell has never fought a grappler close to Gillespie before, ‘The Gift’ should probably be the favorite. But Riddell can’t be counted out here simply due to Gillespie’s long layoff.
However, ‘The Gift’ by decision is the pick.
The Pick: Gillespie via unanimous decision
#3 UFC Vegas 22: The Main Card
In a UFC Heavyweight bout, Tai Tuivasa faces off with Don’Tale Mayes. Tuivasa looked like a hot prospect a couple of years ago, but simply hasn’t done enough to round out his game to become a true contender.
Despite this, he should probably be the favorite here. Tuivasa moves surprisingly well for his size, and Mayes is a more plodding Heavyweight who is unlikely to take this fight to the ground. Therefore, Tuivasa by knockout is the pick.
At Welterweight, Song Kenan faces Max Griffin. This one should be an exciting striking-based battle, with both men possessing plenty of power and a willingness to throw down.
However, Griffin looks like the better grappler overall, and he also has far more experience than Kenan. If ‘Max Pain’ can push the pace here without taking a really heavy blow, then this one should be his to lose. Griffin via decision is the pick.
In a Strawweight bout, Cheyanne Buys takes on Montserrat Ruiz. As with all fights between UFC debutants, this one is difficult to call purely due to the lack of exposure for both women.
On paper at least, Buys has more experience thanks to her lengthy amateur record. And she’s probably beaten stronger opponents, too.
Ruiz has more finishes on her ledger, but given that a lot of them came on low-level shows, it’s hard to say how good her opponents were. This one is almost impossible to pick, but Buys via decision is the guess.
Finally, Adrian Yanez faces Gustavo Lopez in a Bantamweight bout. This one should be fun, as judging from what both men have done thus far, they have both come to throw down.
Yanez should probably be favored though. He looks like a hot prospect thanks to two explosive KO wins in 2020 and an excellent record overall. Yanez by KO is the pick.
#4 UFC Vegas 22: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC Bantamweight division: Marion Reneau vs. Macy Chiasson
UFC Lightweight division: Leonardo Santos vs. Grant Dawson
UFC Middleweight division: Trevin Giles vs. Roman Dolidze
UFC Bantamweight division: Montel Jackson vs. Jesse Strader
UFC Bantamweight division: Johnny Eduardo vs. Anthony Birchak
UFC Bantamweight division: Julia Avila vs. Julija Stoliarenko
UFC Flyweight division: JP Buys vs. Bruno Silva
