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The UFC returns to the ABC network this weekend for UFC Vegas 23: Marvin Vettori vs Kevin Holland.
UFC Vegas 23 looks like a pretty solid card overall, with a high-level main event and a number of exciting prospects on the undercard. So would the fighters deliver when the UFC returns to its APEX facility?
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Vegas 23: Marvin Vettori vs Kevin Holland.
#1 UFC Middleweight division: Marvin Vettori vs Kevin Holland
This fight should have seen Vettori taking on Darren Till in what would’ve been a major opportunity for the Italian. Had Vettori beaten ‘The Gorilla’, he could’ve been in line for a shot at UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya.
But with Till out with a severe collarbone injury, Kevin Holland – who only lost to Derek Brunson a handful of weeks ago in his first outing of 2021 – has stepped in.
So who will take this one?
Vettori has largely flown under the radar over the years. However, ‘The Italian Dream’ is 4-0 since suffering a loss to Adesanya in 2018 and is now 6-2-1 in the UFC.
A powerful fighter, Vettori is solid in all areas. The last time we saw him, he was able to edge out Jack Hermansson in probably his most impressive performance to date.
Essentially, he used a swarming gameplan to avoid Hermansson becoming comfortable on the feet. He also avoided any dangerous scrambles on the ground, preferring to control ‘The Joker’.
Vettori doesn’t necessarily carry thunderous power in his punches, nor is he the greatest wrestler in the division. However, he doesn’t really have any weaknesses and is absolutely capable of fighting at the same pace in the fifth round as he is in the first.
Holland, meanwhile, was probably one fight away from a title shot when 2021 started. But his loss to Derek Brunson has knocked him back substantially.
A loss to Brunson isn’t necessarily terrible – Brunson is one of the UFC’s best Middleweights, after all. However, the way in which Holland lost – seemingly not focussed on the fight itself, talking to Khabib Nurmagomedov at cageside, and so on – made a big dent in his credibility.
He could get that all back here with a big win, though, but it won’t be easy for him.
Brunson is a better wrestler than Vettori, but the ease in which he took Holland down simply doesn’t bode well for him in this fight. Vettori is more than capable of planting Holland on his back, and judging by the Brunson fight, ‘The Trailblazer’ doesn’t have a lot from there.
Add in the late notice for Holland and the fact that he only fought Brunson on March 20th, this just seems like a task that might be beyond Holland right now. Considering the same, it might not be pretty or all that entertaining, but the pick is Vettori via unanimous decision.
The Pick: Vettori via decision.
#2 UFC Featherweight division: Arnold Allen vs Sodiq Yusuff
This fight just looks fabulous on paper. It’s a clash of two of the UFC’s brightest Featherweight prospects, and the only criticism would be that perhaps they should’ve been kept apart for longer.
Yusuff is a product of Dana White’s Contender Series. Power-punching is the name of the Nigerian's game. He’s 4-0 in the UFC, with two knockouts to his name. Yusuff isn’t the most technical striker, but he makes up for that with brutal power and incredible speed.
Even in fights where he looks out-skilled on the feet, his power allows him to pull through. He has taken impressive decision wins over Sheymon Moraes and Andre Fili.
Allen, meanwhile, is a native of England who trains at Canada’s famed Tri-Star gym under Firas Zahabi. ‘The Almighty’ came into the UFC with a reputation as a grappler, but over the years, his striking has developed excellently.
He now displays a pretty solid boxing game, complete with a good jab – just as you’d expect for a Tri-Star product.
Sure, Allen doesn’t have too many finishes in his UFC ledger – just two in fact – but anyone who’s capable of going 7-0 in one of the UFC’s most loaded divisions is a real deal.
In terms of this fight, it should come down to a simple question: would Allen be able to avoid Yusuff’s power for 15 minutes and outpoint him?
‘The Almighty’ is the superior fighter by far from a technical standpoint, but it is tricky to see how he’ll deal with Yusuff’s power, should the latter land. However, it’s worth noting that Allen always has his grappling to fall back on if he can’t outpoint Yusuff standing. He has also fought a couple of big hitters before – Gilbert Melendez and Makwan Amirkhani – and survived.
Overall, Allen should be the favourite here and will most likely win a decision, but you can’t count Yusuff out due to his brutal power.
The Pick: Allen via unanimous decision.
#3 UFC Vegas 23: The Main Card
Four more fights will feature on Saturday’s main card, and in the Middleweight division, Kyle Daukaus faces Aliashkab Khizriev.
Khizriev looks like a very dangerous newcomer to the UFC. He’s 13-0 and holds a win over former UFC star Rousimar Palhares. Judging by his highlight reel, he’s big, aggressive and has skills in all areas.
Daukaus is equally well-rounded and obviously has more UFC experience. But he lacks the raw physicality of Khizriev. So the newcomer seems more likely to win, probably by decision or late TKO.
Also, in the Middleweight division, Sam Alvey takes on Julian Marquez. The book has essentially been written on how to beat Alvey in the UFC now – avoid the big counter right hook, and you should win. So it would depend on whether Marquez can do that.
The likelihood is that Marquez should be able to that. He should have a speed advantage over Alvey; he's the more varied striker and looked good on his return to the UFC in February. Therefore, Marquez via TKO is the pick.
Meanwhile, in the Strawweight division, Nina Ansaroff faces Mackenzie Dern. This would be an intriguing fight that should tell us a lot about how well-developed Dern is in her overall MMA game now.
Obviously, she’s the best grappler in the division, with a ridiculous amount of credentials to her name. But in previous UFC outings, her takedowns have been lacking.
That’s what makes Ansaroff dangerous for Dern. ‘Strina’ fended off a lot of the takedowns of Tatiana Suarez in their fight – and Suarez is a far better wrestler than Dern.
However, Ansaroff falls in terms of a lack of aggression at times, while Dern is always a willing frontrunner. Considering the same, Dern by razor-close decision is the pick.
Finally, in the Welterweight division, Mike Perry clashes with Daniel Rodriguez. Whether or not Perry should even be fighting, given his apparent mental issues, is a question mark. The last time we saw ‘Platinum’, he didn’t look like himself in a loss to Tim Means.
This could be a dangerous fight for him. Daniel Rodriguez lost his last fight, but he’s an excellent, dangerous fighter with finishing skills in all areas.
Perry is tough enough to avoid a TKO here and has a puncher’s chance. But judging by his recent behaviour, you’ve got to question if his head is in the game. Therefore, Rodriguez, via decision, is the pick.
#4 UFC Vegas 23: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC Lightweight Division: Jim Miller vs Joe Solecki.
UFC Lightweight Division: Scott Holtzman vs Mateusz Gamrot.
UFC Bantamweight division: Erin Blanchfield vs Norma Dumont Viana.
UFC Lightweight Division: John Makdessi vs Ignacio Bahamondes.
UFC Heavyweight division: Yorgan de Castro vs Jarjis Danho.
UFC Bantamweight division: Hunter Azure vs Jack Shore.
UFC Featherweight division: Luis Saldana vs Jordan Griffin.
UFC Light-Heavyweight division: Da Un Jung vs William Knight.
UFC Welterweight division: Impa Kasanganay vs Sasha Palatnikov.
