UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum

#2 UFC lightweight division: Clay Guida vs. Mark Madsen

Clay Guida has now been competing in the UFC for almost 15 years

In a lot of ways, it’s hard to believe that Clay Guida is still competing in the UFC. A veteran of the octagon since 2006, ‘The Carpenter’ has been written off on numerous occasions. But while he’s not as durable as he once was, he’s still coming off a win over fellow veteran Michael Johnson.

OHHHHHH @ClayGuida drops Lauzon in round 1 early!!!!! THAT'S IT!! IT'S OVER!! #UFCNorfolk pic.twitter.com/r5InIUvRpk

— UFC (@ufc) November 12, 2017

This fight, though, sounds very tricky for him. Guida is best against opponents who can’t keep up with his pace, and more importantly, can’t stop his takedown. His biggest wins – over the likes of Anthony Pettis and Nate Diaz – all came in that fashion.

But his opponent here, Mark Madsen, may well be one of the best wrestlers in the UFC’s 155-pound division right now. An Olympic silver medallist in Greco-Roman wrestling, Madsen is a genuine physical specimen who favors throwing his opponents around.

Thus far into his UFC career, he’s not really been tested. He used heavy hands to destroy Danilo Belluardo in his UFC debut and then largely dominated Austin Hubbard at UFC 248 – landing a total of eight takedowns across three rounds.

There are a couple of worrying signs for ‘The Olympian’. Firstly, this will be his first fight since his win over Hubbard, which took place well over a year ago. Already 36 years old, it’s hard to say how his body will react to such a lengthy layoff, particularly when he lacks UFC experience.

And secondly, he did appear to gas out against Hubbard in the final round and found himself on the defensive in terms of striking, even if ‘Thud’ could not stop any of his takedowns.

Basically, this fight should come down to whether or not Guida can survive into the later rounds. If he can do that, it’s easy to imagine a situation arising in which a gassed Madsen makes a big error and perhaps ends up giving his neck to Guida for a submission.

However, ‘The Carpenter’ is not the best finisher in the UFC. This means that if he does drop the early rounds, probably due to Madsen taking him down, he’s likely to lose on the scorecards even with a strong third round.

This is a winnable fight for Guida, but when you consider his waning durability and Madsen’s wrestling advantage, it seems more likely that the Dane will come out on top in a tough one.

The Pick: Madsen via unanimous decision