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After a week without any UFC action, the world’s biggest MMA promotion is back this weekend for another event – UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum.
UFC Vegas 34 features a strong main event between top-ranked middleweights Jared Cannonier and Kelvin Gastelum, as well as some other promising bouts.
The show lacks some name value, but after a week without a UFC event, this one should be a welcome return and should hopefully produce some entertaining bouts.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum.
#1. UFC middleweight division: Jared Cannonier vs. Kelvin Gastelum
Former champion Robert Whittaker seems set to fight Israel Adesanya for the UFC middleweight title in the near future. It then makes sense for the UFC to book the last two fighters who lost to Whittaker against one another.
Given Adesanya has largely cleared out the middleweight division, there’s every chance that a strong performance from either Jared Cannonier or Kelvin Gastelum here could net them a UFC title shot down the line. This is especially true if ‘The Last Stylebender’ is still holding the title, given his close interim title fight with Gastelum and his desire to fight Cannonier.
So which man has the advantage? In terms of recent form, you’d probably give Cannonier the edge. ‘The Killa Gorilla’ looked like a largely middling light-heavyweight, but since dropping down to 185lbs in 2018, he’s proven himself to be highly dangerous.
Cannonier won his first three middleweight bouts in the UFC, finishing David Branch, Anderson Silva, and Jack Hermansson all via KO/TKO.
That positioned him for his fight with Whittaker, and while he lost, he’s still clearly one of the top 185lbers in the world. With that said, many UFC fans still largely underestimate him. Why is that?
It’s a little hard to say. Cannonier hits remarkably hard with all of his strikes, as we saw when he stopped the streaking Hermansson in violent fashion. However, perhaps it can be argued that ‘The Killa Gorilla’ is a little one-dimensional in his straight-ahead striking style.
Essentially, Cannonier doesn’t exactly use much finesse in the way he fights, preferring to march forward throwing power shots.
The fact that he doesn’t use too many feints, head movement, or much footwork was largely why Whittaker was able to pick him off pretty comfortably in their fight. So can Gastelum do the same?
If you’re going by skill set alone, then perhaps. Gastelum, who won the 17th season of The Ultimate Fighter back in 2013, is a pretty decent technical striker. Kelvin Gastelum sits behind a jab to set up his combinations and mixes them well with his tricky wrestling game.
Gastelum also has plenty of top-level experience, having beaten the likes of Michael Bisping and Jacare Souza. He even went five rounds with Adesanya in 2019, pushing him harder than any other fighter in the UFC.
Where Gastelum may struggle in this fight is with Cannonier’s sheer physicality. ‘The Killa Gorilla’ is a huge 185lber, whereas Gastelum could probably still make 170lbs with a strict diet.
Overall, this is a tricky fight to pick, but it is worth noting that Gastelum has never been stopped by strikes before – and in fact, it’s hard to remember any fights that saw him get badly hurt. If his chin can hold up here, this may well be his fight to lose, even if he struggles with Cannonier’s strength in the early going.
The Pick: Gastelum via unanimous decision
#2 UFC lightweight division: Clay Guida vs. Mark Madsen
In a lot of ways, it’s hard to believe that Clay Guida is still competing in the UFC. A veteran of the octagon since 2006, ‘The Carpenter’ has been written off on numerous occasions. But while he’s not as durable as he once was, he’s still coming off a win over fellow veteran Michael Johnson.
This fight, though, sounds very tricky for him. Guida is best against opponents who can’t keep up with his pace, and more importantly, can’t stop his takedown. His biggest wins – over the likes of Anthony Pettis and Nate Diaz – all came in that fashion.
But his opponent here, Mark Madsen, may well be one of the best wrestlers in the UFC’s 155-pound division right now. An Olympic silver medallist in Greco-Roman wrestling, Madsen is a genuine physical specimen who favors throwing his opponents around.
Thus far into his UFC career, he’s not really been tested. He used heavy hands to destroy Danilo Belluardo in his UFC debut and then largely dominated Austin Hubbard at UFC 248 – landing a total of eight takedowns across three rounds.
There are a couple of worrying signs for ‘The Olympian’. Firstly, this will be his first fight since his win over Hubbard, which took place well over a year ago. Already 36 years old, it’s hard to say how his body will react to such a lengthy layoff, particularly when he lacks UFC experience.
And secondly, he did appear to gas out against Hubbard in the final round and found himself on the defensive in terms of striking, even if ‘Thud’ could not stop any of his takedowns.
Basically, this fight should come down to whether or not Guida can survive into the later rounds. If he can do that, it’s easy to imagine a situation arising in which a gassed Madsen makes a big error and perhaps ends up giving his neck to Guida for a submission.
However, ‘The Carpenter’ is not the best finisher in the UFC. This means that if he does drop the early rounds, probably due to Madsen taking him down, he’s likely to lose on the scorecards even with a strong third round.
This is a winnable fight for Guida, but when you consider his waning durability and Madsen’s wrestling advantage, it seems more likely that the Dane will come out on top in a tough one.
The Pick: Madsen via unanimous decision
#3 UFC Vegas 34: The main card
In a heavyweight bout, Chase Sherman takes on Parker Porter. As always, with this kind of heavyweight fight, it’s a risk for the UFC. While we could be treated to a slugfest, this may also turn into a sloppy fight between two gassed-out big men.
Who is likely to win? Judging by what we’ve seen from both men in the UFC, it's probably Sherman. He’s got more experience, clearly hits hard, and appears to have a slight speed advantage over Porter, who doesn’t seem to be in the best shape. Sherman via TKO is the pick.
In a lightweight clash, Vinc Pichel takes on Austin Hubbard. This should theoretically be an exciting fight between two well-rounded and aggressive fighters. However, the slight advantage should be with Pichel.
The veteran of TUF 15 is 38 years old now but has retained his freakish strength – something that allows him to impose his grinding style on his opponents. Given Hubbard’s takedown defense has been questionable at times, Pichel via decision is the likely outcome.
In a great-sounding flyweight fight, Alexandre Pantoja faces Brandon Royval. Pantoja is probably one of the UFC’s most underrated fighters. The Brazilian fights a lot like former UFC flyweight champ Deiveson Figueiredo and holds a win over current champ Brandon Moreno.
Royval is a double tough fighter with excellent skills on the ground – particularly when it comes to scrambling – but he may be physically overmatched here by an opponent who hits hard and holds a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt. With that considered, the pick is Pantoja via TKO.
Finally, bantamweights Mana Martinez and late replacement Trevin Jones square off. Martinez is making his UFC debut and looks like an exciting fighter. He’s won all eight of his career victories via KO/TKO. Jones, meanwhile, has more UFC experience and recently defeated Mario Bautista via KO.
This one could go either way given the exciting styles of both men, but the late notice for Jones may give Martinez the edge – meaning he is the pick to win via KO.
#4 UFC Vegas 34: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC featherweight division: Austin Lingo vs. Luis Saldana
UFC bantamweight division: Brian Kelleher vs. Domingo Pilarte
UFC bantamweight division: Bea Malecki vs. Josiane Nunes
UFC light-heavyweight division: William Knight vs. Fabio Cherant
UFC lightweight division: Roosevelt Roberts vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
UFC welterweight division: Sasha Palatnikov vs. Ramiz Brahimaj
UFC middleweight division: Antonio Braga Neto vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan
