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Very few people expect Carla Esparza to emerge victorious this Saturday at UFC 281. That's a reasonable expectation, given how well Zhang Weili matches up with her. However, a win, even if expected, doesn't have to come easily. Several fighters have encountered favorable matchups that have proved surprising.
The reigning strawweight queen possesses a range of tools that will allow her to make it more difficult for 'Magnum'. While this approach may not earn 'Cookie Monster' the win, it will cause the fight to take on a more competitive complexion.
As has been the case in the past with other fighters, Carla Esparza has the chance to prove her doubters wrong. This list compiles five factors that could help the UFC's first-ever strawweight champion render the upcoming bout a stiffer test for Zhang Weili.
#5. Carla Esparza's cardio
The current 115 lbs champion possesses slightly above-average cardio that's augmented by her low-volume striking. Meanwhile, Zhang Weili has serviceable cardio that's undercut by her high-volume power-punching. While 'Magnum' doesn't gas out terribly, she does tire out eventually.
Her cardiovascular endurance is supplemented by her muscular endurance, enabling her to hit hard even while exhausted. Additionally, her most difficult fights have been against opponents like Rose Namajunas and Joanna Jędrzejczyk, who relied on their cardio to tire her out.
Carla Esparza can do so by imposing a low-volume game to conserve her energy, as she did against Rose Namajunas, while 'Magnum' expends her energy in the earlier rounds.
#4. The wrestling sequences
The wrestling sequences in this upcoming bout will be difficult to predict. Zhang Weili has transformed into a highly effective wrestler, while Carla Esparza remains arguably the best wrestler at 115 lbs. The depth of wrestling skills that 'Cookie Monster' possesses is impressive.
Whether she's searching for single-leg, double-leg takedowns or chain-wrestling against the fence, Carla Esparza is a more varied wrestler than her foe due to her lifelong experience in the sport. This means that she is better equipped to wrestle for 25 minutes than 'Magnum' is.
Zhang Weili's muscle fibers have been fine-tuned for striking due to the amount of time she has spent kickboxing throughout her career. Meanwhile, the reigning strawweight champion has a lifetime of muscle memory and cardiovascular adaptations for wrestling that her opponent simply does not.
So while Carla Esparza might struggle to secure takedowns initially, 'Magnum' might find it difficult to keep wrestling her for 25 minutes when her body isn't equipped for such grappling-heavy exchanges that extend that long.
#3. Carla Esparza is a low-volume striker
Zhang Weili is a complete striker in the sense that she's capable of fighting as a counterpuncher as well as an aggressive striker. China's first-ever UFC champion bounces in and out of range to draw her opponents into overextending.
She teases a forward bounce, causing her foes to throw a punch. Once her opponent has taken the bait, 'Magnum' hops backward, making them overextend and miss. After duping her foes into missing, she hops back into range with crushing counters.
If her opponents become gun-shy, she marches forward without fear of being countered by them. Carla Esparza throws at such low volume as a striker that her rhythm is difficult for her opponents to determine. Without being able to determine her rhythm, 'Magnum' won't be able to counterpunch her as effectively.
If Zhang instead opts to march forward and fight on the offensive, she'll be wary of the takedown as 'Cookie Monster' can duck under a punch while her foe's hips are squared and hyper exposed.
#2. Level changes
Another boon from Carla Esparza's low-volume striking is that she renders it very difficult for her opponents to determine whether a level change hints at a takedown or a strike taking advantage of the threat of the takedown. While the reigning 115 lbs queen does indeed throw punches, she rarely overcommits.
Since her main threat is wrestling, 'Cookie Monster's level changes always implant the threat of a takedown in her opponent's mind. Thus, it leaves her foes unable to predict when a level change is simply setting up a strike because it happens so rarely.
By mixing in level changes with her striking and wrestling, Carla Esparza can drag her foe's defenses apart. While 'Magnum' expects a takedown, the champ can come over the top with a punch. By making herself more difficult to read, Carla Esparza increases her chances in the bout.
#1. Zhang Weili has been in many wars
There's a distinct difference between Zhang Weili's career and Carla Esparza's. China's greatest UFC fighter has taken part in two brutal five-round wars against Joanna Jędrzejczyk and Rose Namajunas. The damage accumulated from both of those fights is already evident.
'Magnum' is more easily stunned by strikes than she used to be. While 'Cookie Monster' is not a thunderous puncher, she does possess serviceable, perhaps respectable punching power. Unfortunately, she lacks the punching mechanics to consistently make use of her decent power.
However, over the course of a 25-minute fight, with her foe not able to accurately predict if a level change is a precursor to a takedown or disguising a punch, it might count for something, especially given how little damage the strawweight queen has taken in comparison.
