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Since Zhang Weili's memorable first-round TKO win over Jéssica Andrade, against whom she captured the UFC women’s strawweight title, 'Magnum' has endeared herself to the MMA fanbase. Her exciting fighting style, willingness to wade into fire and personable demeanor have led spectators to welcome her with open arms.
Meanwhile, Carla Esparza has not been as fortunate. She does not possess a highlight reel-friendly fighting style, nor does she consistently try to finish her opponents, even after successfully dragging them to the mat. Furthermore, 'Cookie Monster's' attitude in season 20 of TUF turned fans against her from the jump.
Thus, most fight fans are eager to see 'Magnum' dethrone the reigning strawweight queen at UFC 281. There is good reason for fans to expect her to do so. For that reason, this list details five reasons why Zhang Weili will defeat Carla Esparza in their title fight this Saturday.
#5. Zhang Weili is a much better striker
Carla Esparza is a wrestler who has never diverted from her skill-set beyond what was necessary. The current 115 lbs titleholder is a serviceable striker who possesses a decent overhand-right and mixes in level changes to create openings for her strikes. Alas, she features no other notable skills as a kickboxer.
Zhang Weili, however, is an entirely different story. The first-ever Chinese UFC champion is an exceptional striker. She stays light on her feet, bouncing forward and backwards. Every time her opponents commit to moving forward, 'Magnum' hops backwards, causing them to overextend.
Once she draws them completely out of position, she hops back into range with a thunderous combination. Her seismic knockout power and speed render her a devastating counterpuncher. She is also a far more varied kickboxer. In her recent win over Joanna Jędrzejczyk, Zhang Weili showcased an even deeper skill-set.
Side-kicks are much like spinning back-kicks: they both expose a fighter's back to their opponent if the kicks miss. This is especially costly against a wrestler who will immediately secure a rear-bodylock for a trip-takedown or suplex. To circumvent this, Zhang Weili throws a spinning backfist after her side-kicks, etc.
This enables her to intercept any opponent who eagerly tries to close the distance against her after a missed kick. It was how she KO'd former champion Joanna Jędrzejczyk, and it is something Carla Esparza will have to be wary of.
#4. Zhang Weili's defensive wrestling
Carla Esparza's greatest assets as a fighter are her skills as a wrestler. Unfortunately, 'Magnum' is exceedingly difficult to take down, much less outwrestle. Not only does she sprawl quickly by exploding her hips away from takedown shots and immediately securing underhooks, her footwork is key.
Zhang Weili's decision to bounce in and out of range expertly hides her foot placement, rendering it difficult for her foes to accurately measure her distance. Not knowing how far or close she'll be at any given time means 'Cookie Monster' won't time the former strawweight champion with her takedowns.
If she's unable to secure takedowns or otherwise impose the threat of her wrestling against Zhang Weili, Carla Esparza will find herself in a kickboxing bout that she is ill-equipped for.
#3. Her offensive wrestling
There is no mistake to be made. Carla Esparza is the most skilled wrestler between her and 'Magnum'. However, China's first-ever UFC champion has spent a significant amount of time training under Henry Cejudo, an Olympic gold medalist in freestyle wrestling.
The boons of that experience have been evident by how drastically Zhang Weili's offensive wrestling has improved. The former champion has improved to such an extent that she can use her own takedowns against 'Cookie Monster'. Level changes and takedown attempts will break her foe's rhythm of expecting only kickboxing.
Furthermore, if Carla Esparza does not expect to be wrestled by Zhang Weili, it bodes extremely well for 'Magnum', who recently used her wrestling to outwrestle Rose Namajunas and Joanna Jędrzejczyk, both of whom 'Cookie Monster' failed to wrestle.
At the very least, the threat of a serious wrestling game will be stiff enough that even a failed takedown will give Carla Esparza more to think about. After all, only one of them is stepping inside the octagon expecting to be wrestled by their foe.
#2. The clinch
A decent chunk of Carla Esparza's skills as a wrestler are due to her physical strength and successes in the clinch. Even when she's unable to secure takedowns against her foes, 'Cookie Monster' is still fully capable of using her positional grappling and strength to bully her opponents in the clinch.
She is formidable in holding them against the fence and breaking their postures by shoving her head against their chins to straighten their postures. This compromises the spine as a leveler, making it difficult for her foes to have any leverage in the clinch.
However, due to her time training at Tiger Muay Thai, Zhang Weili has developed a fearsome clinch-grappling game. She is extraordinarily strong, so strong that even Jéssica Andrade, a former bantamweight known for her monstrous strength, couldn’t bully her in the clinch.
Furthermore, 'Magnum' often secures a single-collar tie to tug her foe's head down as she turns them towards her and into the path of an elbow after they raise their head back up. Knees are also dangers that 'Cookie Monster' will have to contend with in the clinch if she doggedly pursues it as Jéssica Andrade did.
#1. Volume
Despite her thunderous knockout power, Zhang Weili is not a low-volume striker in search of one crushing blow. Instead, the former strawweight queen is a ruthless combination puncher who has no qualms about overwhelming her foes with a high-volume of strikes.
Even when she's tired, her muscular endurance takes over in place of her cardiovascular endurance, enabling her to hit nearly as hard as she can while fresh. Carla Esparza has historically struggled against high-volume strikers due to her being a fighter who needs to have the initiative to win.
The avalanche of power punches that 'Magnum' unleashes will likely force the reigning 115 lbs titleholder onto the backfoot. If she's left with no choice but to react to every variable coming her way, she will eventually react incorrectly and find no path to reclaiming the initiative in the bout.
Against Joanna Jędrzejczyk, this was a serious issue that caused 'Cookie Monster' to shell-up against the fence en route to being brutally TKO'd.
