4 NASCAR drivers, including Bubba Wallace, watch playoff hopes crumble after Sonoma Cup race

As Shane van Gisbergen celebrated his record-tying third consecutive NASCAR road course win, a quartet of playoff hopefuls walked away from Sonoma Raceway with more questions than answers. With just six races remaining before the 2025 Cup Series Playoff field is set, the margin for error is shrinking.

Sunday's Toyota/Save Mart 350 delivered a brutal reminder of just how quickly fortunes can shift. The 12-driver win list means four postseason spots remain open, currently occupied by Tyler Reddick, Chris Buescher, Alex Bowman, and Bubba Wallace.

Here's how four key drivers saw their playoff hopes take a hit and what it means for their postseason push moving forward:

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NASCAR drivers whose playoff hopes dim after Sonoma:

#1 Bubba Wallace: 23XI Racing

Bubba Wallace entered the NASCAR Toyota/Save Mart 350 just above the cutline. Despite rolling off 30th, he finished third in Stage 1 and fourth in Stage 2. But his race unraveled quickly after the Lap 62 restart.

NASCAR Cup Series driver Bubba Wallace (23) around Turn 2 at Sonoma Raceway. Source: Imagn

Wallace, running mid-pack after pit cycles, spun in Turn 2 in near tandem with 23XI co-owner Denny Hamlin. The caution that followed reset the field, but Wallace never recovered. He crossed the finish line in 26th, squandering the buffer he had built with his early stage performance. Though he still holds the final playoff spot, three points ahead of Preece, he has now finished outside the top 20 in four of the last six races.

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#2 Carson Hocevar: Spire Motorsports

It's become a familiar sight lately for Carson Hocevar, who saw another poor finish undermine his campaign. On Sunday, the Spire Motorsports driver brought the No. 77 Chevrolet home in 32nd place. It was his fourth finish outside the top 25 in the last six races.

NASCAR Cup Series driver Carson Hocevar (77) around Turn 4 at Sonoma Raceway. Source: Imagn

After a promising spring run that included three top-10s, Hocevar has lost ground steadily on street courses. Now 96 points below the cutline, Hocevar's margin for error is gone. His strength on ovals earlier this season offers some hope. But he's in must-win territory now, and time is running out.

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#3 Chris Buescher: RFK Racing

For a brief window late in Sunday's race, RFK Racing appeared primed for a breakthrough with all three of its drivers set to finish in the top ten. Chris Buescher had stage points in reach and looked ready to join the frontrunners in challenging SVG and Briscoe. But a costly sequence on the Lap 62 restart changed everything.

Chris Buescher (17) in the NASCAR Cup Series Toyota/Save Mart 350. Source: Getty

After getting loose and tagging teammate Ryan Blaney entering Turn 1, Buescher lost ground and momentum. Compounding the issue, he stayed out on older tires during the final caution sequence, restarting inside the top five but fading rapidly to finish 16th.

Despite the late-race fade, Buescher remains in the NASCAR playoff picture - 14th in the standings, 34 points to the good. He also leapfrogged Alex Bowman on points. But given the razor-thin margins and Buescher's near-misses this summer, another misstep could put his No. 17 Ford in jeopardy.

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#4 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Hyak Motorsports

Sonoma offered one of Ricky Stenhouse Jr.'s most complete performances of the season until it didn't. The No. 47 driver earned a fourth-place Stage 1 finish and fifth in Stage 2, finally showcasing speed on a road course. But with just seven laps remaining, his race took a brutal turn.

NASCAR Cup Series driver Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (47) during qualifying at Sonoma Raceway. Source: Imagn

Running inside the top 10, Stenhouse made contact with Ty Gibbs in the esses, slamming the tire barrier and bringing out a caution. The damage relegated him to 33rd. Now 91 points below the cutline, his playoff hopes are hanging by a thread.