How history shows Shane van Gisbergen's Bristol elimination scenario is more dire than it appears

Shane van Gisbergen’s first NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs is turning into a reality check. After two rough opening rounds, the Trackhouse Racing rookie finds himself below the cutline heading into Saturday night’s Bristol elimination race.

Once sitting comfortably inside the top 10, the four-time race winner now trails the transfer spot by 15 points. With only 12 drivers advancing from the Round of 16, his rookie dream season is suddenly hanging by a thread.

The New Zealanders’ 2025 campaign has been record-breaking in many ways. His road-course mastery brought him wins at Sonoma, Chicago, Mexico, and Watkins Glen as he entered the playoffs as the seventh seed with a 16-point cushion. But the margin has vanished quickly.

His next hurdle? Bristol. The high-banked short track is unlike the technical circuits where he thrives, and his lone Cup start there ended in a 38th-place DNF. With elimination looming, the odds are stacked against him.

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Two playoff races have shown Shane van Gisbergen is out of his depth

Shane Van Gisbergen (88) during Duel 2 at Daytona International Speedway. Source: Getty

The playoffs began with the Southern 500 at Darlington, where Shane van Gisbergen’s lack of oval experience showed. Complaining of balance and grip issues early, his day unraveled with a 54-second pit stop followed by another 35-second stop to fix the problem.

The Trackhouse Racing No. 88 crew fought back, but staying out too long left them trapped, and SVG limped home in 32nd. Instead of building playoff momentum, he left barely above the cutline. At Gateway, the situation only worsened.

Starting in the 18th place, he quickly fell to 25th. A timely caution allowed him to restart 12th, and he looked set to finish inside the top ten in Stage 1. But he couldn’t defend his position, losing out to Chase Elliott. A mid-race tire puncture spun him out on lap 156, and a speeding penalty further derailed his race. He managed 25th, leaving him with no playoff momentum and below the playoff bubble.

Two races, two finishes outside the top 25, and suddenly the rookie darling of the regular season is facing elimination. Darlington and Gateway both highlighted SVG’s road-course brilliance hasn’t yet translated into short-track survival. Bristol is an unforgiving place to try to change that narrative.

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Bristol reality check and what Shane van Gisbergen needs to survive

Shane Van Gisbergen before the 2024 NASCAR Xfinity Series race at Bristol Motor Speedway. Source: Getty

Saturday’s Bass Pro Shops Night Race will cut the field from 16 to 12. Austin Cindric holds the final transfer spot at 2,064 points, while Shane van Gisbergen sits 14th, 15 points adrift. Teammate Ross Chastain is +19, Austin Dillon is –11, Alex Bowman is –35, and Josh Berry is –45. For SVG, the math leaves him in precarious ground.

To advance, SVG must either win outright or hope drivers like Cindric or Chastain suffer disastrous nights. A points path is still possible, but unlikely. Cindric is +11, and Bowman, Dillon, and Berry all have deeper Bristol notebooks.

SVG's track record is thin. His solitary Cup start at Bristol earlier this summer ended with a mechanical DNF in 38th. His lone Xfinity start there in 2024 was an 18th-place finish. Trackhouse Racing’s history offers little reassurance either. The team has managed a 20.1 average finish in 12 starts at “The Last Great Colosseum”, with no top-five results. For a driver still finding his footing on ovals, the gap looks daunting.

SVG himself admitted after Gateway that the reality of the playoffs has outpaced his current level. He said (via Frontstretch):

"Our pace has hugely improved over the last few months and now we’re a 15th to 20th place car, which is amazing after the start we had. But in the playoffs, you just need more. Don’t know if we’re just expecting too much out of ourselves for the level I am at, at the moment. We can go and get them 15ths and 20ths, but it’s not enough when you need stage points and top 10s." (1:36 onwards)

In contrast, his elimination rival Joss Berry averages 17.7 at Bristol and is considered one of the better short-track racers in the series. Bowman has won poles in the last two Bristol Cup races and carries five top-10s there. Dillon has four top-10s in 20 starts. Even Cindric, despite limited results, has logged five Bristol starts. All are oval veterans. Shane van Gisbergen is not.

That’s why Saturday night’s race will be decisive for his playoff run. A win would turn him into a postseason shock story. Anything less, and history suggests Bristol will be the place where his rookie year Cinderella run ends.