Denny Hamlin eyes 50-point cushion to avoid ‘conservative’ run at Bristol elimination race

Denny Hamlin arrived at World Wide Technology Raceway with clarity about what the playoffs demand. Sitting second in the NASCAR Cup Series standings, 43 points above the Round of 12 cut, he knows Gateway is his chance to buy enough margin to keep Bristol from turning into a math exercise.

Hamlin’s run at Darlington was unspectacular. A slipping clutch and a right-rear issue left the No. 19 Toyota grinding to seventh at the Southern 500, a result that felt better than it looked, given that 12 of 16 playoff drivers ran into problems that afternoon. Chase Briscoe’s victory locked him into the next round, while Hamlin stayed second in points, just shy of a stress-free buffer.

Asked if there is a magic number that calms the Bristol nerves, Hamlin said during his pre-race press conference (via Cup Scene):

"Anything 50 or more is a pretty comfortable spot, even if you typically DNF in the last race... You’ve got to add in, can the people below the cut really contend to win the race or not at Bristol? So 50 or more would be fine. Even if it’s less than that, it’s fine." (4:56 onwards)

That number is rooted in scars from last fall. The 2024 playoffs opened with rough outings at Atlanta and Watkins Glen, both outside the top 20, forcing Denny Hamlin to tiptoe at Bristol just to survive.

"We're far less last year at Bristol. Unfortunately had to run that race a little bit more conservatively because it wasn’t as comfortable a spot as what I was hoping for. I'd like to go to Bristol not having to worry about anything... To win that race, you’re going to have to be aggressive as a driver, and certainly you don’t want to think about the repercussions of missing the next round because it could hamper your ability to win," he added.

Denny Hamlin salvaged fourth that night, advancing, but the defensive mindset never sat right. Darlington’s chaos this year showed again how fast playoff cushions disappear. Shane van Gisbergen, like Hamlin - a four-time 2025 winner -now only has a three-point advantage. Others, such as Chase Elliott and Joey Logano, also left the opener fighting uphill.

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Denny Hamlin aims to turn Gateway pole into playoff breathing room

Denny Hamlin wins the pole for the NASCAR Cup Series race at Gateway. Source: Getty

If Darlington reminded the field how fragile the margin is, Saturday at Gateway hinted at Denny Hamlin’s answer. With a 139.190-mph lap, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver earned his first pole at the 1.25-mile oval and Toyota’s first at the venue. It was his third pole of 2025 and the 46th of his career, tying Junior Johnson for 11th all-time, and his second consecutive pole in the NASCAR 2025 playoffs.

"We were able to, very similarly to last week, make some great adjustments from where we were in practice. There is so much that is different from practice to qualifying when you’re going for one lap... They gave me all of the adjustments I needed to have a really good-handling car, and we were able to capitalize on it," Hamlin said after qualifying.

Gateway has quietly suited Denny Hamlin’s style. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver finished 34th in the inaugural Cup stop after contact, but rebounded with back-to-back runner-up runs the last two seasons. The flat corners reward his trademark patience, and the team’s current speed suggests that elusive win is within reach.

Kyle Larson’s 139.099-mph lap put Hendrick Motorsports on the front row. Chase Briscoe, locked into the Round of 12, rolls off third, followed by Ross Chastain and Ryan Blaney. All nine top-starting spots belong to playoff teams, an indication that Gateway may offer cleaner racing than Darlington’s war of attrition.

Hamlin’s mission, however, is more about the scoreboard. A top-five would almost certainly keep him above the 50-point threshold he wants. A win would render Bristol an exhibition. For a veteran still chasing his first championship, that’s the kind of margin he wants before the high-banks turn into an eliminator.

Three poles, four regular-season wins, and now a car capable of controlling Gateway’s rhythm give Denny Hamlin the chance to set the tone for the rest of the Round of 16.