“They’ve all won there in the past”: Kevin Harvick breaks down must-win scenario for playoff drivers battling for a Championship 4 spot

Kevin Harvick believed that any of the playoff drivers could head to the NASCAR Cup Series finale, as the garage heads to Martinsville for a dramatic final act. The veteran driver-turned-analyst broke down the stakes of the next race, with only two spots still up for grabs.

Talladega was a bruising race for Hendrick Motorsports and Team Penske. William Byron and Kyle Larson were in the lead pack late but slipped back to 25th and 26th at the finish. Penske’s Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney were controlling the race with 20 laps to go, only to be forced to pit for fuel late and fall outside the top 15. Chase Elliott’s day ended early after completing just 51 of the 193 laps.

For Joe Gibbs Racing, it was nearly a perfect weekend with Chase Briscoe’s breakthrough victory at the superspeedway. The win booked his first-ever Championship 4 berth, joining teammate Denny Hamlin. With one race left in the Round of 8, four drivers remain below the cutline.

Christopher Bell sits +37 above the cutline, with Larson only a single point behind at +36. Below them, Byron (-36), Logano (-38), Blaney (-47), and Elliott (-62) all need a win at Martinsville to keep their title hopes alive. Speaking about the standings on the Kevin Harvick's Happy Hour podcast, he said:

“I really think that the two guys that have won obviously are in a good spot. But I think that really the four guys that are out and the two guys that are in all have to race like they’re in a must-win. Because... you’ve got Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell one point apart.”

Harvick added that Kyle Larson’s margin was too thin to play defense:

“If you’re behind Christopher Bell and you’re Kyle Larson, you might be the guy out because you have to assume that one of those other four guys that are not in it are gonna have a chance to win. Chase Elliott’s definitely in a must-win. Ryan Blaney. Joey Logano… that’s the crazy part because they’ve all won there in the past.” (21:18 onwards)

What surprised Kevin Harvick was that every remaining playoff driver, including those below the cutline, has a Martinsville victory to their name.

In the Next Gen era, Ryan Blaney leads the field with a 4.6 average finish and two wins in seven Martinsville starts. His Penske teammate, Joey Logano, isn’t far behind with 5.6. He won in 2018 and hasn’t finished outside the top 10 since 2019. Hendrick's Elliott has an 8.0 average finish and three straight top-5s, last win in 2020. Larson, with a 5.4 average, is only behind Blaney and has won in 2023.

William Byron, meanwhile, has been hit-or-miss. The No. 24 has two wins at Martinsville in his last seven races, but also six finishes outside the top 20, bringing his average to 10.4. Bell’s Martinsville record is statistically the weakest of the group at 14.7, but that’s deceiving. He’s the most in-form playoff driver right now, carrying seven consecutive top-10s into the Xfinity 500.

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Kevin Harvick picks his Championship 4, goes for in-form Toyotas

(L-R) Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and Martin Truex Jr. before the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series finale. Source: Getty

As the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs reach their tipping point, Kevin Harvick made his prediction for who’ll make it to Phoenix. Joe Gibbs Racing’s dominance has been undeniable with five wins in eight playoff races, and Harvick didn't see that changing anytime soon.

When asked about his Championship 4, Harvick said on the podcast:

“I think it’s the same four. I think the four that are in right now stay in. I think it’s Larson, Bell, Briscoe, and Hamlin.” (42:19 onwards)

Kevin Harvick's Happy Hour co-host Kaitlyn Vincie agreed, backing the same four names for the Championship 4. Mamba Smith, however, threw in a wildcard, picking William Byron to rise from below the cutline and replace either Kyle Larson or Christopher Bell with a win at Martinsville.

Teams will face one more twist before Phoenix. Goodyear has introduced a new left-side Racing Eagle tire for Martinsville. It’s been designed to produce more fall-off than previous compounds and was previously tested in New Hampshire earlier this year. Drivers will pair it with a familiar right-side tire for the 500-lap Xfinity 500 showdown on Sunday.