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The summer is an agonising time to be a football fan. Incessant transfer gossip is about the only thing for a deprived enthusiast, a steady drip into their right arm that ensures they continue to exist until the new season begins.And here we are on the threshold of one. The wait is only a little longer before ‘they’ invade our living rooms and induce gasps of astonishment and howls of frustration in equal measure. For a title winning team, it is important to get a winning formula – the right components, both physical and mental - in the right proportions. Here’s what needs to be done.
#1 Balancing the midfield dynamic
The midfield is perhaps the most crucial third of the pitch – an area the control for which is tussled out by the technicians and human shields alike. While in England, a football culture that often supports bypassing the midfield in favour of a penalty box fracas, the importance is slightly overstated. In Italy, it is the exact opposite.
The Serie A is played at a much slower pace, often with greater emphasis on the tactical and cerebral side of the game making it imperative to solidify the grasp of the centre. The Inter Milan side of 2010 was spoilt for choice in this regard, but they rotated effectively, usually employing a double pivot at the base of midfield (Javier Zanetti, Thiago Motta, Esteban Cambiasso) with the creative duties thrust upon a willing Wesley Sneijder.
The Milan side that followed them had a solid base as well, Genaro Gattuso and later Mark van Bommel providing the steel to the silk of Clarence Seedorf and Kevin-Prince Boateng, and, every now and again, Andrea Pirlo.
Juventus have swept all before them since 2012 and have fielded a fairly similar midfield for most of that time. The midfield boasts a hard working ethic, with Andrea Pirlo deployed as a deep playmaker to make the best use of his vision and passing abilities.
Around him, Paul Pogba, Claudio Marchisio and Arturo Vidal have taken turns to do the heavy lifting. These players are often packed into a three, with Pogba and Vidal given licence to attack as they see fit.
The formula clearly works, as Inter secured a historic treble while The Old Lady made it four consecutive Scudetti earlier this year.
#2 Long term planning
In England and Spain, a draw for a title aspirant is a dagger to any championship bids. In an intense, highly competitive environment where even the slightest misstep can swing the momentum in a title chase dramatically, it is no surprise most strategists operate week to week and think only about the next game.
Such a pattern of thought can be dangerous because it is easy to allow clouded judgment to dictate the next course of action. Knee jerk responses to poor results are nothing new to such climes.
In France, however, it is a different story. Ligue 1 has a rather notorious reputation as one of Europe’s most draw-tastic leagues, with the past six champions (including 2015) going no lower than 7 draws on each occasion, and reaching double digits a couple of times. Lille actually managed 13 on their way to the 2011 Ligue 1 crown. They still won the title by eight points.
Excitement in the French top flight has suffered partly due to this reason, but it also ensures title chasers do not lose sight of the bigger picture, that the team that lasts to the end is the most patient side in the league, that displays the type of gritty pragmatism essential to succeeding in Europe – the type that takes maximum points when the opportunity arises but is also willing to play the long game, knowing there’s a good chance their direct rivals also drew.
#3 Iron defensive setup to build the team on
What with Barcelona and Real Madrid engaged in a yearly contest to outdo each other on the field and in the transfer market, it is ironically Atletico Madrid, the scruffy boys from industrial Madrid, who best illustrated the secret to conquering La Liga.
See, normally spectators don’t perceive La Liga’s two top dogs Barcelona and Real Madrid to be ‘defensive’ teams – at least not in the classical sense. This is somewhat understandable, given the immense attacking and creative strength of the two teams and Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo constantly battling for space in the headlines.
Both clubs have broken the 100 goal barrier multiple times in recent years, and in such a goal saturated climate, it comes as a surprise that a water tight defence is the key to the Spanish treasure chest.
Generally, La Liga is not won by the side that scores the most goals. The league’s top scorers have only become champions twice in the past six seasons. It is, in fact, conceding the least that gives you the edge in Spain. The league’s stingiest defence has, in fact, been behind championship wins in five of the previous six seasons, and the key isn't really reaching an absolute figure: just make sure you concede less than the guys in second place.
Barcelona have walked away with Spain's biggest prize most times in the new decade. Their record often isn't stellar in plain, numerical terms. It's just that they have always let in less than Real Madrid.
#4 Defeating every team outside the top four
Much is made of the clashes between the members of the top four but, surprisingly, these games aren’t nearly the most important for the champions. Sure, it represents a six-point swing, but beating everyone else in the league is of greater importance.
Case in point, the Manchester United side of 2009 – by far the best the Old Trafford faithful had seen for ten years, and one of their best of all time. In the six games they played against other members of the top four that season, they won just one of those.
Three of the four defeats they suffered that season came at the hands of Liverpool (twice; they finished second) and Arsenal (finished fourth), but United also recorded a staggering 28 wins that season. They did the double over most teams in the league that season, no doubt a crucial reason behind their 18th league championship and a total haul of 90 points.
This, arguably, was also what cost Chelsea the league title in 2013/14. The Londoners finished third that season, but despite defeating the two teams above them both home and away (Liverpool and Manchester City), they suffered an unprecedented number of defeats against teams significantly below them in the league – six – which included crashing to teams of the order of Aston Villa, Sunderland and Crystal Palace.
#5 The perfect cocktail: 80+ points, 25+ wins and 5 defeats or less
Additionally, scoring 80+ goals is a huge boost, but not wholly necessary. The reason? The gap between the top of the league and the rest has widened to the point where the teams around the champions are vastly ahead of the others.
It is a gap that doesn’t look to be bridged soon. It means that winning the league with 75 points and conceding 44 goals is in the realm of fantasy now (this is precisely what Manchester United managed in 1996/97).
Nowadays, 75 points grants you, at best, an automatic Champions League berth, as it has in five out of the past six seasons. It has become a high-risk game if anything: conceding south of 30 goals on the way to a title win is less common, and it is increasingly becoming about scoring more rather than conceding less.
Incredibly, United in 2013 actually let in 43 goals, an absolutely crazy figure which is the highest it has been in a championship winning side for years, and the only reason they even got to a goal difference of +43 (a solid figure, though unusual for champions) is because they scored 86 goals.
A team like Chelsea’s 2005 vintage (15 goals conceded all season) will probably not be seen again for a while. In fact, Mourinho's present day Chelsea actually had a goal difference less than Manchester City in second but they did get the ‘perfect cocktail’ just right (26 wins, 87 points and three defeats). Once again, they conceded 32 goals.
Five defeats or less is another important requirement – certainly if you want to win the title comfortably. In recent years, the champions who have lost more than five games in a season have only just squeaked through – Manchester City by 2 points in 2014 (6 losses) and Chelsea by 1 point in 2010 (also 6 losses).
