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The Ole Miss Rebels (8-7) will host the (#21) Auburn Tigers (12-3) on Tuesday night. Auburn has won three of their last four, most recently beating Arkansas 72-59 last Saturday. Auburn never trailed in the game, jumping to a 36-25 halftime lead before extinguishing the Razorbacks in the final 20 minutes. Former Morehead State star Johni Broome posted a 10-point, 10-rebound double-double, and Wendell Green stuffed the stat sheet with 19 points, three rebounds, five assists, and three steals. The Tigers held the Razorbacks to 2-of-16 from deep, but got lucky, with their opponents only hitting 59% from the charity stripe.
Auburn vs. Ole Miss
Betting Odds
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Ole Miss has lost four straight games, falling to North Alabama and Tennessee in the final minutes before losing by double-digits to Alabama and Mississippi State. Leading scorer Matthew Murrell had 19 points on a 7-of-16 shooting performance against in-state rival Mississippi State, but the Rebels as a whole shot 35% from the field. The score could have been much worse, given that the Rebels lost the turnover and free throw battle, but their opponents only shot 50% from the line and converted less than half of the Rebel turnovers into points.
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.
The Auburn Tigers own a 1.14 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 22nd in the nation. Ole Miss has the 84th-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.97. Auburn does well to average in all key stats, but shot-making, where they are in the 19th percentile. They also struggled in the open three rate metric, ranking 264th in the country. Conversely, the Rebels are in the 95th percentile in defensive shot-making (348th in the country) and middle of the pack in defensive open three rate.
The Tigers own high-frequency numbers in catch & shoot three-pointers, cut, finishing at the rim, midrange, off-the-dribble three-pointers, off-screen, P&R ball screen, post-up, and transition shot types. The balanced Tigers' offense is in the top 120 of all those shot types except shooting threes and post-up, ranking in the bottom 50 of the country per SQ PPP. Conversely, the Rebels are in the top 100 in defending shots around the rim and off cuts but struggle defending the perimeter.
The Ole Miss Rebels have a 1.11 AdjOFF SQ, the 36th-best mark in the country. Auburn has posted a 0.99 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 138th in the country. The Rebels are in the top 60 in shot selection and rim & three SQ PPP. The Tigers are in the bottom 100 in defensive shot selection and defensive rim & three SQ PPP.
Ole Miss is in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: finishing at the rim, midrange, off-the-dribble three-pointer, off-screen, P&R ball screen, and transition. Conversely, Auburn is in the bottom half of the country defending all those shot types, except off-the-dribble three-pointers, where they have posted a 0.95 SQ PPP (14th in the country).
Auburn vs. Ole Miss Prediction
From a ShotQuality standpoint, the Ole Miss offense should match up exceptionally well against the Tigers. They would like to get out in transition and finish at the rim, both deficiencies of the Tigers' defense. Meanwhile, the Tigers are exceptionally balanced on offense, but want to score in transition. They have been horrendous in shooting threes this season, but Ole Miss has been equally poor in defending them. That sets up nicely for the Tigers to finally get their shots from the perimeter to fall. Grab the over and expect points in droves in this SEC matchup.
Prediction: Over 133 (-110)
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